太贵卖不出去，没盈利无法上市，独角兽难免自相吞噬

这是科技行业疯狂大并购的一年。但有一点，所有这些大手笔交易，包括软银斥资320亿美元收购ARM控股，微软以262亿美元的价格拿下领英，威瑞森以48亿美元的价格收购雅虎，甚至是甲骨文和特斯拉分别斥资93亿美元和28亿美元买下NetSuite和SolarCity，都不涉及任何价值10亿美元的科技独角兽公司（联合利华收购Dollar Shave Club不在其列，因为收购前Dollar Shave Club并非独角兽公司）。

我提到的此类并购让投资银行家们忙个不停。风险投资人却因此感到紧张。为我们投资的公司留点儿现金吧！

普华永道的数据显示，虽然出现了诸多引人关注的收购活动，但科技行业今年的并购规模下降了19%。研究机构CB Insights指出，更糟糕的是，到目前为止只有两家10亿美元级初创公司完成了转让，分别是Lazada和Jasper。

滴滴出行收购优步中国或许预示着今后将出现的情形。如果膨胀起来的、资金过剩而且估值过高的初创企业因价格过高而无法出售，同时又因为盈利能力太差而无法上市，那么为什么不让它们相互兼并呢？

优步首席执行官特拉维斯•卡兰尼克是最有竞争力、态度最坚决的赢家通吃型初创公司CEO。他能容忍失败实在意义重大。本次让步也许会启发其他打算随优步而动的初创型公司CEO，让他们对自己的公司持更加实际的态度。

竞争是初创企业合并的原因之一。我预计，经历不可避免的整合之后，最大的几家餐饮外卖快递初创公司将合并在一起。监管障碍是它们合并的另一原因，比如优步在中国遇到的情况，以及传闻中让FanDuel和DraftKings走到一起的因素。

卡兰尼克放弃在中国的宏大计划标志着初创公司市场出现了拐点。骄傲、自负以及单凭意志就能变不可能为可能的非理性硅谷信念也许再也发挥不了作用了，这也是优步和滴滴等公司此前一直没有合并的最主要原因。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：詹妮

It’s been a big year for giant, crazy tech deals. Except none of the big deals, including SoftBank’s $32 billion acquisition of ARM Holdings, Microsoft’s $26.2 billion deal for LinkedIn, Verizon’s $4.8 billion deal for Yahoo, or even Oracle’s $9.3 billion deal for NetSuite or Tesla’s $2.8 billion deal for SolarCity, involve any of the tech world’s billion-dollar unicorns. (Unilever’s acquisition of Dollar Shave Club doesn’t count as it was not a unicorn before its acquisition.)

Deals like the ones I mentioned are keeping investment bankers busy. But they have to make venture capital investors nervous. Save some cash for our portfolio companies!

Despite all the high profile mega-mergers, deal volume for tech M&A is down 19% this year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. What’s worse, only two billion-dollar startups have sold so far, according to CB Insights: Lazada and Jasper.

The merger of Uber China with local rival Didi Chuxing might also be a sign of things to come. If bloated, over-funded, overvalued startups are too expensive to sell and too unprofitable to go public, why not use that expensive stock to merge with one another?

It’s significant that Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, the most competitive, hard-charging, winner-take-all startup CEO around, has conceded a loss. That concession may inspire other startup CEOs hoping to follow in Uber’s footsteps and be more pragmatic about their own businesses.

Competition is one reason for startup mergers. I predict after the inevitable shakeout of meal kit and food delivery startups, we’ll see the biggest ones merge. Regulatory hurdles, like the one Uber faced in China, or the one behind the rumored merger of FanDuel and DraftKings, is another reason to merge.

The retreat of Kalanick’s grand ambitions in China signals a turning point for the startup market. The biggest reasons mergers like Uber-Didi haven’t happened sooner—pride, ego, and the irrational Silicon Valley belief that you can make the impossible happen by sheer force of will—may no longer be a factor.