美国经济：貌似灾难，实则不然

9月1日刊的《财富》杂志将连续刊发两篇文章（包括本文及其姊妹篇——《美国人认为当前经济极不景气的六个原因》），探讨了为什么大多数美国人依然认为当前的经济是一场灾难。

经济学又被称为“悲观科学”，不过最近在围绕国情咨文引发的争议中，经济学家们反而是最乐观的一群人。

倒是政治家、选民和媒体最近都在哀叹，觉得美国经济最近这段还算平静的日子怕是没多久了，美国或许很快就会被另一次经济危机所笼罩。但美国最知名的经济学家珍妮特·耶伦却向我们保证：“扩张不会死于年老。”她还表示，只要我们能够避免政策错误或另一次打击，我们就没有理由认为经济会再度下滑。

经济学家们喜欢用数据支持他们的论点，对美国经济增长持乐观态度的经济学家们自然也有很多数据给他们撑腰。比如最近一段时间的低利率周期。悲观主义者认为，利率之所以会这么低，是因为私人投资者认为，除了政府债务以外，市场上已经没有什么投资机会了。然而从另一个角度看，它也证明了投资者对美国政府的偿债能力是有信心的。另外，低利率也为大规模的基础设施建设打下了良好基础——以拉里·萨默斯为代表的一些思想家认为，大规模的基础建设投资将为美国未来数十年的增长提供强大动力，并且将有助于解决美国的失业问题。

就业市场的形势又如何呢？我们总是听见这样一种说法：尽管目前美国的总体失业率低于5%，且就业市场每月新增职位数都在186,000个左右，但工资的增长依然趋于停滞，这充分说明了就业形势正日趋严峻。但是如果你把其他一些人口因素也计算在内（比如低收入的年轻劳动者在劳动市场上了取代高收入的老年劳动者），你就会发现，自2002年以来，工资水平实际上是稳步提升的。据旧金山联邦储备银行最近的一项研究显示，按照这一标准，2015年，普通劳动者的工资水平实际上涨了3.1%——虽然从历史上看，这一增幅并不算很大，但还是比很多媒体的悲观预测高了不少。

工资水平也不是唯一上涨了的东西。今年8月，标普500指数再创新高。与此同时，全美多地的房地产市场也同样高歌猛进。据房地产数据机构CoreLogic称，近来美国40%的城市的房价再创新高，另外还有30%的城市的房价离泡沫年份的最高纪录已相差不到10%。这表明很多拥有住房的美国人的身价已经比8年前高出了许多。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

In the September 1st issue of Fortune, a version of this article ran alongside “The Real Reasons Americans Think the Economy Is So Bad,” about why most Americans still think the economy is a disaster.

Economics is called the dismal science, but of late its practitioners have shown themselves to be most optimistic figures in the debate over the state of the union.

Politicians, voters, and yes, journalists, have all recently fretted that this placid moment in the American economy won’t last, and that the third-longest period between recessions in post-war history, will soon give way to another crisis. But it was America’s highest-ranking economist, Janet Yellen, who assured us that “expansions don’t die of old age,” and that there’s no reason to expect a downturn, as long as we can avoid policy mistakes or another shock.

Economists like to back their arguments up with data, and the case for optimism about American growth has a lot of it on its side. Take for, instance, the recent period of low interest rates. The bear case is that money is so cheap because private actors see few opportunities for investment other than government debt. But looked at another way, it proves the confidence investors have in the American government’s ability to pay them back. And those low rates have set the stage for the kind of aggressive infrastructure spending that Larry Summers and other thinkers say could fuel decades of growth and solve the American underemployment problem.

And what about that job market? We hear all the time that wage growth is stagnant even as a sub-5% unemployment rate and average monthly job growth of 186,000 suggests that labor markets are getting tighter every day. But pay has actually risen steadily since 2002 when you control for other demographic trends (lower-paid younger workers replacing higher-paid older ones). According to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, by this measure, on average workers saw their pay rise 3.1% in 2015—historically not gangbusters growth, but picking up much faster than the gloomy headlines suggest.

Wages aren’t the only thing on the rise. The S&P 500 touched a new high this August, while many housing markets across the country are doing the same. According to real estate data firm CoreLogic, the real estate markets 40% of U.S. metro areas have reached new peaks, with another 30% are within 10% of their highs during the bubble years. That means that many Americans that own their own homes are far richer today than eight years ago.