2016年餐饮业形势黯淡

研究公司The NPD Group在上周四发布的报告中指出，由于经济不稳定，食品价格下跌，美国的餐饮业遭遇了客流量增速放缓的问题。研究表明，在2016年前三个月客流量表现平平之后，第二季度的总客流量依然没有起色。今年夏初，分析师们表达了对于销售趋势走低的担忧，一些人认为很快就将出现“餐饮业衰退”——尽管这一行业目前还没有到这么糟糕的地步。

NPD表示，午餐时间的客流量疲软尤其意义深远，2016年的午餐客流量同比下滑了4%。这一时段的客流量贡献了餐馆客流总量的33%，也抵消了消费者对早餐需求的增加带来的利好。

NPD的餐饮业分析师邦妮·里格斯在报告中写道：“客流量止步不前，部分原因在于消费者对当下和未来的经济情况感到不确定。”

她的说法与今年夏天早些时候发布最新财报的业内高管类似。星巴克（Starbucks）的首席执行官霍华德·舒尔茨近期表示，这家咖啡巨头和其他餐馆都因为影响整个行业和全体零售业的“宏观挑战”蒙受了损失。尽管美国的星巴克在一片衰退之中逆潮流地实现了同店销售额4%的增长，但这种涨幅依旧让消费者感到失望，因为星巴克连续25个季度国内同店销售额增长5%以上的势头就此终结了。

快餐连锁集团Wendy’s同样在抱怨消费者的情绪，他们认为止步不前的收入和不断上涨的生活成本影响了顾客的消费能力。首席执行官托德·佩尼格表示，2016年的总统竞选也是因素之一，因为消费者“有些不确定他们的未来，他们试图搞清楚这次选举对他们来说究竟意味着什么”。

这种痛楚在餐饮界巨头之间广为扩散。麦当劳（McDonald’s）上季度在美国的销售额增长也低于预期。墨西哥卷饼连锁店Chiptole自去年食品安全危机以来，销量就持续疲软。

由Chipotle和帕纳拉面包（Panera Bread）主导的休闲快餐领域，即便是排除Chipotle的糟糕情况，在客流量上依旧乏善可陈。NPD表示，餐饮业多年来都表现出色，今年第二季度的客流量增长却只有2%，Chipotle的销售额也很不景气。总之，比起去年同期11%的增长，今年的减速十分明显。与此同时，休闲餐厅和家庭餐厅客流量减少的情况在第二季度依旧持续。

这些人都去哪里用餐了呢？更多是在家里。由于过去几年中食品和燃油价格下跌，食品杂货店近来下调了价格，在家里吃饭变得更加实惠。与此同时，许多餐馆却提高了菜品的价位。

在这样的局势下，克罗格（Kroger）、沃尔玛（ Walmart）和其他大型杂货商得以获利。除了售卖更便宜的食品以外，部分连锁店还开辟了外卖窗口——这又给餐饮连锁店带来了压力，尤其是在晚餐方面。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

As economic uncertainty and falling grocery prices pressure the industry, U.S. eateries are facing a slowdown in traffic, according to a Thursday report from research firm The NPD Group. The study said total traffic was flat in the second quarter of 2016, following a flat performance in the first three months of the year. Analysts earlier this summer flagged worries about declining sales trends, with some saying there could soon be a “restaurant recession”—though the sector hasn’t suffered that deeply just yet.

The weakness was particularly profound during lunch hour, according to NPD, where visits for the second quarter slipped 4% in the second quarter from year-earlier levels. That part of the day represents 33% of all visits to restaurants, and it offset an increase in demand for breakfast.

“Contributing to the stalled visit growth are consumers’ uncertainties about current and future economic conditions,” Bonnie Riggs, NPD’s restaurant industry analyst, wrote in the report.

She echoes some of the industry’s top executives who reported their latest quarterly results earlier this summer. Starbucks’ （SBUX -0.70%） CEO Howard Schultz recently said the coffee giant and others were stung by “macro challenges” that impacted the industry and overall retail sector. Though Starbucks bucked the trend by reporting same-restaurant sales growth in the U.S., the latest quarter’s 4% increase disappointed investors as it ended a streak of 25 straight quarters of domestic comparable-store sales growth of 5% or greater.

Fast-food operator Wendy’s complained about consumers’ moods as well, and blamed stalling wages and rising living costs for hurting consumer spending. CEO Todd Penegor said the 2016 presidential race was also a factor, as consumers are “a little uncertain around their future and really trying to figure out what this election cycle really means to them.”

The pain was widespread among dining’s heaviest hitters. McDonald’s （ MCD 0.73%） U.S. sales growth was slower than expected in the latest quarter, while burrito chain Chiptole （CMG -1.86%） continues to face sales woes in the wake of a food-safety crisis last year.

The fast-casual sector, which is dominated by Chipotle and Panera Bread （ PNRA -1.17% ,）faced traffic woes even when excluding Chipotle’s bruising results. NPD said that segment of the restaurant industry—which for years had been a star performer—posted only a slim 2% increase in traffic in the second quarter while Chipotle’s sales were flat. Either way, that’s a sharp deceleration from last year’s 11% increase in the same period. Meanwhile, the declines in traffic for the casual dining and family dining segments continued in the second quarter.

So where are diners eating? Increasingly, more at home. Because food and fuel costs have been decreasing for the past few years, grocery chains have recently lowered some prices, making it more affordable for consumers to dine in. That comes as many restaurant operators have been increasing menu prices.

It’s resulting in an environment that favors Kroger （KR -0.53%） , Walmart（ WMT -0.13%） , and other big grocers. And beyond the cheaper food prices, some of those chains have also carved out room for grab-and-go meals—another way to pressure restaurant chains, especially for the dinner occasion.