如果希拉里因健康问题退选会发生什么？

在周日举行的9/11纪念仪式上，希拉里·克林顿突然病倒，这令已经非常混乱的2016年美国总统大选再添变数。克林顿的健康问题一直被阴谋论者抓住不放，而此次事件意味着她的健康问题已经成为名副其实的竞选问题，也引发各界猜测，如果她无法继续参选，将会发生什么。

首先需要确定的是，克林顿的竞选团队从未说过任何她会退选的话。也没有任何证据证明，周日发生的事情，不止是临时肺炎发作那么简单。

克林顿的竞选团队称，将很快公布关于这位候选人病历的更多信息，她的发言人布莱恩·法伦在MSNBC的“安德里亚·米歇尔报导”（Andrea Mitchell Reports）中表示：“没有其他未披露的病情；目前所知道的只是肺炎而已。”

但考虑到克林顿退选的风险，本文将介绍一下民主党另选一位候选人时，可能会遵照的原则。

正如历史学家约翰·布斯奇在一篇建设性的博客文章中所解释的那样，如果克林顿在选举日之前退选，民主党领导层应该负责选出替代人选。根据民主党的章程，民主党主席应召开会议，并由多数委员会成员选出一位提名候选人，如蒂姆·凯恩或乔·拜登等。现在，竞猜游戏已经开始：

一旦提名候选人在选举日之后、选举人（选举人由选民根据选举人团制度推选产生，并根据选民意愿进行投票）举行会议选出总统之前去世或退选，会造成更大的混乱。在这种不太可能出现的情况下，程序也是一样的——民主党的头头们要选出新的提名候选人；但这个结果可能更加不可预测，因为这意味着民主党要选出一位不在选票上的候选人。

最后，如果民主党提名候选人在选举团投票和总统就职典礼期间趋势，则会启用美国宪法第20条修正案。宪法规定，总统去世，由副总统接任总统职务。

正如布斯奇所说，由于美国需要应对开国元勋们未能预见的情况，因此具体程序也会随着时间的推移而发生变化。虽然候选人因健康问题退选的情况极其少见，但也并非没有先例。在1972年总统大选期间，民主党候选人乔治·麦戈文的竞选伙伴托马斯·伊格尔顿，在被曝出曾因抑郁和压力入院治疗的新闻后，便退出了竞选。随后，民主党全国委员会召开会议，决定由和平队队长萨金特·施莱弗取而代之，但当时的选情急转直下，最后麦戈文还是惨败给了理查德·尼克松。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Hillary Clinton collapsed at the 9/11 memorial service on Sunday, delivering another jolt to the already chaotic 2016 Presidential campaign. The incident means Clinton’s health, long a fixation of conspiracy theorists, is now a bona fide campaign issue and raises the question of what happens if she cannot continue.

To be clear, the Clinton campaign has not said anything remotely indicating she will quit the race. Nor is there evidence the incident on Sunday was related to anything other than a temporary bout of pneumonia.

The Clinton campaign says more information about the candidate’s medical records will be coming soon but “there’s no other undisclosed condition; the pneumonia is the extent of it,” Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon said on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports.”

But given what’s at stake, here are the rules for how the Democrats would pick another candidate.

As historian John Buescher explains in a helpful blog post, it’s the job of the Democratic Party leadership to replace Clinton if she drops out prior to Election Day. Per the party’s by-laws, this would involve the Chairman calling a meeting and a majority of Committee members picking someone else — Tim Kaine or Joe Biden or, well, someone — to be the nominee. Already the guessing games have begun:

It gets a bit more messy if a nominee dies or steps down after Election Day but prior to the time the electors (the people voters choose to convey their choice for President under the electoral college system) meet to vote for President. In that unlikely event, then the process is the same — the Democratic party bigwigs pick who the new nominee would be; this outcome might be more unpredictable, however, since it would involve the choice of someone who is not on the ballot.

Finally, if the Democratic nominee dies between the time of the electoral college vote and the Presidential inauguration, then the Constitution’s 20th Amendment kicks in. It states the Vice President replaces a President who dies.

As Buescher notes, these processes evolved as the country came to grapple with scenarios that the Founding Fathers didn’t foresee. And while it’s very rare for candidates to leave for health reasons, it’s not unprecedented. During the 1972 campaign, Democratic candidate George McGovern’s running mate, Thomas Eagleton, dropped out after revelations he had been hospitalized for depression and stress. The DNC then met in order to replace with Peace Corps Director, Sargent Shriver but McGovern lost to Richard Nixon in a landslide.