阿根廷经济终于要迈向辉煌了吗？

在人们普遍担心美国股市或许过热以及英国脱欧后欧洲陷入混乱的情况下，全球长期投资者对好消息望穿秋水。

上周出现了一些这样的消息。阿根廷总统毛利西奥·马克里在布宜诺斯艾利斯召开了为期三天的全球顶尖CEO和投资者会议，实际上就是宣布阿根廷再次开启了招商引资大门。就在一年前，也就是马克里赢得选举前，这样的会议还不可想象。阿根廷不仅面临着重大经济挑战，而且还没有清晰的“翻身计划”，这让全球的政治和金融精英们对在阿投资都不以为然。

马克里在开幕式上致辞时承认：“我们无法在一天、一年乃至一个总统任期内改变所有的东西，但重要的是我们开始朝着正确的方向迈进。”全世界愿意聆听这位新总统的“推介”，这件事本身就已经意义非凡。

阿根廷的经济史既复杂又令人心碎。20世纪的最初几十年中，阿根廷曾是世界上最强大的经济体之一，但随后一直处于无休止的起伏之中。这个国家自然资源丰富，但受政府管理不善等多种因素影响，阿根廷一直没能充分发挥其经济潜能。

2015年当选的马克里得到了阿根廷工商界的支持，他上任后也立即按照竞选承诺开始着力对付通胀，抑制外国投资流出，并为阿根廷重新成为南美经济强国打下基础。由于南美正在应对巴西经济和政治危机的余波，马克里明智的经济和财政政策变得特别受欢迎。

公平的说，初期成果无疑是喜忧参半。马克里刚刚宣布，他的政府或许无法实现将赤字削减4%的原定目标，并且承认必须在财政责任和节省开支之间求得平衡可能会影响阿根廷的经济增长。能否在继续降低赤字的同时仍向教育、基础设施以及阿根廷至关重要的农业领域投入资金，或许会在很大程度上决定马克里的任期是否成功。这种微妙的平衡对决策者来说并非新挑战，但考虑到阿根廷要摆脱的困境，这些抉择的风险异常的高。

阿根廷要走一段艰难的上坡路。今年的通胀率将超过40%，虽然制定增长计划并聘请能干的经济决策团队让马克里备受赞誉，但彭博社指出：“[阿根廷]仍缺乏为生意人提供安全环境的法律框架。”

不过，就算短期指标迄今尚未体现出马克里改革派政策的效果，但精明的投资者都知道，最坏的阶段已经结束而复苏尚未全面到来之际就是采取行动的最佳时机。

阿根廷当前的局势或许正是如此。阿根廷央行最近的一次调查显示，经济学家预计2017年阿根廷通胀率将回落一半，今年下滑1.5%的GDP将在明年上升3.2%。世界银行《全球经济展望》报告预计，阿根廷的经济衰退将在2016年结束，2017年的资本流入将不断增强。

同时，尽管马克里宣称阿根廷“开门营业”尚未形成投资者和企业排队等候的局面，已经出现了一些确实很有希望的动向。比如可口可乐和Axion Energy最近分别承诺将在阿根廷投资10亿和15亿美元；而阿根廷财政部得到的投资承诺总额已经超过320亿美元（尽管其中绝大多数还没有兑现）。

马克里和阿根廷民众面前的道路绝非坦途。而且他已经发现，财政改革就像叠叠乐游戏——一项善意举动可能带来多个意外结果。此外，正如新的季度业绩已经显露端倪时CEO们很难把注意力集中在长期策略上一样，在新的选举即将到来之际让政界人士这样做同样具有挑战性。阿根廷将在2017年10月进行议会选举，这将考验马克里继续改革的决心，就算这些改革会让他在投票中失去盟友的支持。

如果马克里态度坚定，并且表明自己有勇气为了长期利益赌上政治资本，阿根廷就有可能最终迈向真正而持久的复苏。本周的投资峰会就是良好的第一步，它能让整个世界相信马克里的诚意。

作者艾伦·H·弗莱施曼是全球商业咨询及策略性沟通企业Laurel Strategies, Inc.创始人、总裁兼CEO，并曾在美国国会外交事务委员会及其西半球附属委员会担任幕僚长。(财富中文网)

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

With broad concerns that the U.S. stock market may be overheated and turmoil in Europe following Brexit, long-term global investors are desperate for good news.

This week, we got some when Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, opened a three-day conference in Buenos Aires for top global CEOs and investors – effectively declaring that Argentina is once again open for business. Just one year ago, prior to Macri’s election, the prospect of such a gathering would have been unthinkable; the world’s political and financial elites would have scoffed at the notion of investing in a country that was not only facing severe economic challenges, but also had no apparent roadmap for turning things around.

In his opening remarks, Macri acknowledged that “we can’t change everything in a day or in a year or during one presidency; what’s important is that we’ve started going in the right direction.” The willingness of the global community to even listen to the new president’s pitch is a very big deal.

Argentina’s economic history has been complex and heartbreaking. After being one of the world’s most powerful economies in the early decades of the 20th century, Argentina has suffered through endless boom and bust cycles. The country is blessed with a bounty of natural resources, but a variety of factors – including governmental mismanagement – have kept the country from reaching its full economic potential.

Macri’s election in 2015 brought with it support from the Argentine business community, and he has followed through with his campaign promises by focusing the early hours of his presidency combating inflation, stemming the outflow of foreign investment, and laying the foundation for Argentina’s re-emergence as a South American economic powerhouse. Macri’s sensible economic and fiscal policies are especially welcome news in a region that is dealing with the fallout of Brazil’s economic and political crises.

To be fair, the early results have been decidedly mixed. Macri just announced that the government may not be able to meet its original goal of 4% deficit reduction, admitting the fine line the country must walk between fiscal responsibility and an austerity that could hinder growth. Whether Macri can continue reducing the deficit while still make necessary investments in education, infrastructure and the country’s critically important agricultural sector, may well determine the success of his presidency. This delicate balancing act is not a new challenge for policymakers, but given the hole Argentina is climbing out from, the stakes of these decisions are exceptionally high.

Argentina has a tough uphill climb ahead. Inflation will clock in above 40 percent this year, and while Macri gets high marks for establishing a roadmap for growth and hiring a team of talented economic policymakers, Bloomberg notes that “[Argentina] still lacks a legal framework that establishes a safe environment for doing business.”

But even if the short-term indicators have not thus far reflected Macri’s reformist policies, shrewd investors know that the best time to make a move is after the worst is over but before the recovery has begun in earnest.

That may be exactly what we’re seeing in Argentina right now. According to a recent survey by the country’s central bank, economists expect inflation to be halved in 2017, with GDP rising 3.2% next year after falling 1.5% this year. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects concurs, predicting that the recession will end in 2016 and capital inflows will strengthen through 2017.

And, while Macri’s declaration that Argentina is “open for business” hasn’t yet resulted in investors and businesses lining up around the block, there have been some genuinely promising developments – such asCoca-Cola and Axion Energy recently committing investments of $1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively. Altogether, the Finance Ministry has tallied more than $32 billion corporate pledges (though the vast majority of those checks have yet to be written).

No, the path forward for Macri and the Argentine people won’t be easy. And as he is already discovering, fiscal reform can be like a game of Jenga – one well-intentioned action can have a multitude of unexpected consequences. And just as CEOs have a hard time keeping focused on executing a long-term strategy with the next quarterly earnings report always on the horizon, it is challenging for politicians to do so with the next election coming soon. With Argentina’s legislative elections looming in October 2017, Macri faces a test of his fortitude to stay the course on reforms, even if those reforms cost his allies at the polls.

If Macri stands firm and shows the courage to risk political capital for the long-term good, Argentina could finally be on the verge of a true and lasting recovery. This week’s investment summit is a good first step in convincing the world that he means business.

Alan H. Fleischmann is the Founder, President & CEO of the global business advisory & strategic communications firm, Laurel Strategies, Inc., and the former Staff Director of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and its Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the U.S. Congress.