看这三项数据，特朗普可能当选美国总统

如何解最新的就业报告？这取决于你打算在下个月的总统大选中给谁投票。

如果你支持唐纳德·特朗普，你可能会注意到美国的就业增长率较去年有所下滑，失业率有所提高，你或许会关注更广泛的失业率指标。后者显示，想找全职工作却只能干兼职的人多得不太寻常。如果你是希拉里·克林顿的支持者，你则会强调官方失业人数创造历史新低，工资持续增长，劳动参与率不断提高。

尽管这些指标有利于判断经济形势，却未必是预测大选赢家的有力依据。今年5月，《财富》探寻了究竟哪些数据与总统候选人的胜出最为相关，并发现希拉里·克林顿拥有优势。现在距离大选只剩一个月，是时候再一次看看这些数据，预测一下选民在11月8日的抉择了：

供应管理协会（ISM）制造业指数

统计学家和博客作家内特·西尔弗在2011年的研究表明，预测总统大选赢家的最佳指标是选举年1月至9月的平均ISM制造业指数。

如你所见，美国制造业在今年的大部分时间里都在扩张，但到目前为止，平均的制造业指数只是勉强高于临界点，为50.9。根据西尔弗的分析，这意味着执政党候选人在这一项上存在些许劣势。

优势方：唐纳德·特朗普

就业增长率

第二个最重要的参照数据是选举年1月至9月的非农就业岗位净增长。自1月起，就业率的涨幅约为1%。与之大致对应的是，双方在选民票方面打成平手。

优势方：平分秋色

失业率变化

第三个预测总统大选的最佳指标是选举年1月至9月的失业率变化。美国的失业率在今年实际上略有提升，从1月的4.9%达到了如今的5.0%。这对希拉里·克林顿来说不是个好消息，因为自二战以来，如果选举年前9个月里的失业率有所增长，执政党就从未在选举中获胜。

不过，一些因素可以让克林顿的拥趸获得安慰，例如失业率的增长只是微乎其微，而主要原因也来自劳动力的增长，而不是由于公司解雇员工。

优势：唐纳德·特朗普

尽管这些数据对特朗普明显有利，但这里也需要说明。我们需要保持警惕，即便这些因素在过去预测大选结果时很准确，也不应该过分信任它们。就如西尔弗当时所写的那样，没有一个单独指标显示出与总统大选结果足够强的相关性，能够解释超过46%的结果。也就是说，这种预测在超过一半的时间里都不准确。

希拉里·克林顿目前在民意调查中领先，这就证明了经济数据不只是唯一的重要因素。不过现在，这些经济指标显然对唐纳德·特朗普有利。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

How you interpret Friday’s jobs report depends on whom you are voting for next month.

If you’re a Donald Trump supporter, you probably focus on job growth slowing relative to last year, the rising unemployment rate, or broader measures of unemployment that show an unusually high number of workers who want full time work but can get only part time work. If you are a Hillary Clinton supporter, you choose to emphasize the historically low level of official unemployment, rising wages, and a rising labor-force participation rate.

But while these metrics are useful in evaluating the economy, they are not necessarily great predictors of who will win the election. Back in May, Fortune looked at which statistics are actually best correlated with victory for the candidates of the incumbent or opposition parties and found that Hillary Clinton had the advantage. Now that we are just a month away, it’s time to check back in with the statistics that best indicate what voters will decide on November 8th:

ISM Manufacturing

According to a 2011 analysis by statistician and blogger Nate Silver, the best economic predictor of presidential electoral success for the incumbent party is the average ISM index reading from January through September of election year.

As you can see, the American manufacturing industry has spent much of the year in expansion, but the average reading so far this year is only barely positive, at 50.9. According to Silver’s analysis that correlates with a slight loss for the incumbent party’s candidate

Advantage: Donald Trump

Job Growth

The second most important statistic is the net growth in nonfarm payrolls between January and September of the election year. Since January, employment has increased roughly 1%, which correlates roughly with a tie in the popular vote.

Advantage: wash

Change in Unemployment

The third best predictor for presidential elections is the change in the unemployment rate between January and September of the election year. The unemployment rate has actually gone up slightly this year, from 4.9% in January to 5.0% today. That’s bad news for Hillary Clinton, as the incumbent party has never won reelection in a year when the unemployment rate was higher in September than it was in January since World War Two.

There are some mitigating factors that Clinton supporters can take solace in, like the fact that the unemployment rate is only barely higher in January, and that the rise is mostly the result of the workforce growing rather than businesses firing workers.

Advantage: Donald Trump

Though these statistics are clearly good news for Donald Trump, there are some caveats. We should hesitate to put too much faith even in the metrics that have a good track record of predicting election results. As Silver wrote at the time, none of the individual indicators correlates strongly enough with election results to explain more than 46% of presidential election results, which means they will give you incorrect predictions more than half of the time.

That Hillary Clinton is up in the polls right now is evidence that economic statistics aren’t the only thing that matters. But the economy is clearly in Donald Trump’s corner at this point.