中国经济减速，农民工返乡创业

在中国西北的边墙村，每个夏天，当地人都会聚在一起，花三个晚上来观看戏剧。那里有儿童车、爆米花和叉烤鸡。老人们会照看着他们的孙子孙女。

今年夏天，情况有些不同，年轻的父母开始更多地出现。之前，他们把子女交给父母照管，前往附近的城镇打工。不过随着中国经济减速，农民工越来越难找到工作，开始逐渐返乡。

多年来，中国的失业率一直维持在4%左右，尽管经济在过去25年里保持的两位数高速增长率，在去年已经降到了不足7%。

然而，中国的官方数据并未涵盖2.77亿农民工，这掩盖了国内失业和不充分就业的真实情况。张思虎（音）和他的妻子就是农民工，他们来自玉林的边墙村。这里地处中国西北的陕西省，富含煤矿、石油和天然气。

几年前，中国的房地产热潮在玉林达到了顶点。这对夫妻开了一个餐馆供建筑工人用餐，一个月能挣1万元。这是农民工平均工资的两倍，但如今，这里的房地产热潮已经消退。

14年前离开边墙村的张思虎表示：“去年已经很难赚钱了，所以我把餐馆关了，想找份厨师的工作。”

“但找工作也很难，没什么地方招人。终于有了工作，但几个月后又让我走。现在生意不好做，所以老板决定自己来支撑餐馆。”

张思虎夫妻如今已经回到老家，重新和父母和孩子们经营家庭牧场。他们养了200头牛。

玉林商业局的一名政府官员表示：“这是个大问题，因为农民工没法在城市找到工作，但如果他们回到家乡，收入又太低。”

经济学家认为，商业调查可能是评定广大劳动市场每月状况的最好途径。而调查显示，制造业和服务业的失业人数已有抬头之势。

香港汇丰银行（HSBC）的经济师朱莉娅·王表示：“农民工是劳动力市场中非常灵活的一块，他们（在官方数据中）不属于任何地方。”

“看看过去两年里，农民工市场发生了什么。前往大城市的农民工数量已经大大减少了。”

中国政府的数据显示，2015年农民工的数量增加了0.4%，这是自2009年全球金融危机以来增速最低的一次。离开家乡省份求职的农民工数量，则在2015年出现了六年来的首次下滑。

境遇不佳的不仅是农民工。国有企业和其他大公司的员工也遭遇了不景气、收入低、不充分就业和工作保障差的影响。

路透社在3月报道称，中国计划在未来两到三年内解雇500万至600万国企员工。

王梅（音）说，她和丈夫之前都在内蒙古的中国石油工作。这是中国最大的石油和天然气公司。不过在工资大幅下滑后，他们回到了自己的家乡，玉林市绥德县。

她表示：“现在经济不好，我们的孩子在绥德，这是我们长大的地方，所以我们决定回来。”她补充道，她之前在中石油的维持部门，而她丈夫在IT部门。

“我认为，丈夫做出这个辞职的决定很艰难。国企的工作更稳定，但是他的工资从4,000多元跌到了2,000元，所以他最后还是决定离开。”

中国石油的发言人表示，公司正努力维持前线工作人员的收入，不过他们拒绝对这一特例，以及后勤部门员工的工资变化发表评论。

王梅在绥德县政府的服务办公室找到了临时工作，她的丈夫仍然在考虑接下来的打算。

“可能他会自己做生意，开一个网店，很多人都在这么做。不过我不想让他草率地去当一个企业家，这不明智。”

中国政府正努力提高就业，他们的政策包括支持破产的国有企业，增加再培训，鼓励人们自己创业。

一位玉林的刘姓国企员工表示：“你知道我们是怎么工作的吗？只需要露个面，聊个天，喝个茶，读个报，闲坐会，就可以了，不用干什么事。”

“在我们这个国企，三分之二的人什么都不干。”

在玉林，创业孵化器如雨后春笋般出现。一些政府官员表示，这是为了鼓励人们创办公司，应对经济增速放缓的局势。

白慧芳今年25岁，她管理的孵化器内饰有竹类植物，还有台球桌和共产党员活动室。她说，2015年，这里有32家初创公司，不过只有一家成功募得了资金。

“我们存活下来的很大原因在于政府资助。政府乐于看到我们的存在，因为他们正在努力阻止失业率的提高。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

Every summer in Bianqiang village in northwesternChina, locals gather for three nights of Chinese opera. There are children’s rides, popcorn and spit-roasted chickens. Grandparents watch over their grandchildren.

This summer’s event was different though because more young parents were present. In previous years they had left their children in the care of grandparents while they found work in nearby cities and towns. But as China‘s economy slows, jobs for migrant workers are drying up and they are heading back home.

China‘s official unemployment rate has been around 4% for years, despite the rapid slowdown in the economy from double-digit growth to quarter-century lows last year of less than 7%.

But the real level of unemployment or underemployment is masked by the fact that the official data does not include China‘s 277 million migrant workers, such as Zhang Sihu and his wife from Bianqiang in Yulin, a region rich in coal, oil and natural gas in northwestern Shaanxi province.

At the height of China‘s real estate boom in Yulin a few years ago, they made 10,000 yuan a month, running a canteen for construction workers. That was double the average migrant wage, but the boom is now over.

“It became too difficult to turn a profit last year, so I closed the canteen and went to find work as a cook,” said Zhang, who left Bianqiang village 14 years ago.

“But it was difficult finding work, no one was hiring, and when I did find a job, I was let go after a few months. Business wasn’t good so the boss is now running the restaurant himself.”

Zhang and his wife have now returned to their home village and are back on the family farm with their children and parents, raising 200 head of cattle.

“It’s a big problem because migrant workers can’t find jobs in the city, but if they stay in their hometowns, their income is very low,” a government official at Yulin’s bureau of commerce said.

Business surveys, which economists say may be the best monthly measure of the broader labor market, have shown renewed job shedding in both manufacturing and services.

“Migrant workers are a very elastic part of the labor pool that aren’t captured anywhere (in official statistics),” said Julia Wang, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong.

“If you look at what’s happened to the migrant worker pool over the past two years, the trend of people going to cities has slowed significantly.”

Government data shows the number of migrant workers rose 0.4% in 2015, the weakest increase since the global financial crisis in 2009. Migrants searching for jobs outside of their home province fell in 2015 for the first time in six years.

It is not only migrant workers losing out. Employees of state-owned enterprises (SOE) and other larger firms are also being hit by stagnant or lower wages, underemployment and less job security.

Reuters reported in March that China was aiming to layoff 5-6 million state workers in the next two to three years.

Wang Mei said she and her husband were working for PetroChina, China‘s biggest oil-and-gas producer, in Inner Mongolia, but moved home to Suide county in Yulin, after their salaries were slashed.

“The economy isn’t doing well, our child is here in Suide, this is where we grew up, so we decided to move back,” she said, adding she worked in maintenance and her husband worked in IT at PetroChina.

“I think it was difficult for my husband to decide to quit his job. It’s more stable working at a state-owned enterprise but his salary dropped from over 4,000 yuan per month to 2,000 yuan, so he finally decided to quit.”

A spokesman for PetroChina said the company was trying to keep salaries of front-line workers stable, but declined to comment on this particular case or recent salary trends for back office staff.

Wang has found temporary work at a local government service office in Suide, while her husband considers his next move.

“Maybe he’ll start his own business – an e-commerce store, lots of people are doing that. But I don’t want him to blindly become an entrepreneur, that wouldn’t be good.”

The government is trying to support employment, including by propping up insolvent SOEs, increasing retraining programs and encouraging people to become entrepreneurs.

“You know how it is – you show up, have a chat, drink some tea, read the newspaper, sit around, don’t really do anything,” said an employee of a SOE in Yulin, who gave his surname as Liu.

“Two-thirds of people don’t do any work at our SOE.”

Startup spaces have begun popping up around Yulin, which several government officials said was aimed at encouraging the creation of new businesses to counter the slowdown in economic growth.

Bai Huifang, 25, manages an incubator decked out with bamboo plants, a pool table, and a stage draped in Communist Party paraphernalia. It housed 32 start-ups in 2015 but only one was successfully funded, Bai said.

“A big reason why we’re able to survive is because of government funding. And the government is happy we exist because they are grappling with rising unemployment.”