数据可能存在误导性，中国经济并非真正企稳

私营数据研究机构China Beige Book International（CBB）的调查显示，今年三季度中国经济增长完全依靠制造业和房地产，服务和零售业则发展停滞，并没有近期一系列强劲数据中显示的健康。

CBB对3100多家公司的调查表明，制造业增速居中国各行业之首，53%的制造商表示收入出现了增长，远高于一年前的3%。

CBB指出，政府在基础设施领域大兴土木以及楼市火爆给钢铁、水泥等“传统”公司打了一剂强心针，与此同时，海外订单也出现了改善。

但服务、交通运输和零售等“新兴”行业不管环比还是同比均表现低迷，现金流和利润减少，经济发展很不均衡。

服务业发展放缓，零售商的表现则处于该调查开始以来的最低水平，原因是电子商务公司不断侵蚀市场份额。

调查报告的作者勒兰德·米勒和德里克·西塞斯在和该报告一同发表的文章中指出：“中国经济分析的首要问题仍然是不愿正视可疑数据背后的真相。”

“在这个季度，GDP和PMI等关键指标仍会配合政府的经济复苏判断，但或许完全不受经济影响的人会相信。”

8月份的官方数据让人看到一些希望，经济似乎正在企稳，甚至可能重拾升势——工业产值、消费品零售额以及房地产投资增速均超过预期，工业企业利润增幅也达到了三年来的最高点。

但CBB的报告认为，虽然房地产行业本季度的增长依旧迅猛，但有迹象表明，火热的楼市已经开始降温。

各地的房地产销售收入并不均衡，房企现金流减少，进而引发了新一轮借贷热潮，很可能加重对债务水平快速上升的担心。此外，随着房价飙升，收紧限购的城市越来越多。

服务业方面，除了餐旅酒店企业，其他领域的增长疲软。纯实体店零售商在第三季度净收入完全没有增长。

报告称：“零售业陷入困境，房地产泡沫泛起，这可不是许多人所谓的稳定。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

China‘s economy was less healthy in the third quarter than a recent spate of upbeat data suggest, with growth coming exclusively from manufacturing and property while the services and retail sectors faltered, a private survey showed.

Manufacturing posted its fastest expansion nationally, with 53% of companies seeing revenue gains, up 3% from a year earlier, a quarterly survey of more than 3,100 firms by China Beige Book International (CBB) showed.

While a government infrastructure building spree and housing boom have given a much needed boost to “old economy” firms from steel mills to cement makers, CBB noted foreign orders had also improved.

But “new economy” sectors – services, transportation and retail – showed weakness both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with cash flow and profits deteriorating, leaving the country on uneven footing.

Services slowed and retail firms experienced one of their weakest performances in the history of the survey as e-commerce firms gobbled up more market share.

“The chief problem in China economic analysis remains the unwillingness to look behind dubious headline data,” authors Leland Miller and Derek Scissors wrote in a note accompanying the report.

“High-profile indicators such as GDP and the PMIs this quarter will rubber stamp the government’s recovery narrative, but only those with nothing on the line should accept this at face value.”

Official data for August raised hopes the economy was stabilising and perhaps even picking up, with industrial output, retail sales and property investment all quickening more than expected, while industrial profits grew at the strongest pace in three years.

But while the property sector showed another quarter of strong growth, there are signs that China‘s real estate boom is starting to stutter, the CBB report said.

Property sales revenue is uneven across the country, while companies’ cash flow weakened, prompting a spree of new borrowing that will likely add to worries about rapidly rising debt levels. Moreover, more and more cities are tightening restrictions on home purchases as prices soar.

In the services sector, growth weakened in every area aside from hospitality. Retailers with only brick-and-mortar stores saw no net revenue growth in the third quarter.

“Struggling retail and a property bubble is not the kind of stability many are touting,” the report said.