为何经济好转了，美国人还是寝食不安

詹姆斯·卡维尔有句影响了大选结果的名言：“关键是经济，笨蛋”，如今这句话已经成为共识。

部分原因是这似乎是真的。另一部分原因是，选民会基于个人经济情况选择新总统的观点让参选者和选举报道者感到放心。这种观点认为，投票者会根据自身经济状况做出理性选择。

问题在于，越来越多的证据表明实际情况并非如此，政治信仰以及整体的政治环境其实会影响选民对经济状况的感觉。

最新的数据很能说明问题，Marketplace-Edison Research调查显示，30%的美国人非常担心今后6个月内会失业，比去年增加了10%。近40%的美国人说因担心个人经济情况而失眠，去年调查中人数比例为28%。

但这些数字和体现经济客观走势的数据并不一致。美国人口调查局数字显示，去年美国人收入中位数增长了5%以上，这是20世纪60年代美国政府开始统计以来的最大年度涨幅。同时，其他衡量工资增速的指标也表明今年工资增速在加快，失业指标则呈全面下降态势。就连今年的劳动参与率都在上升，也就是说经济上处于最边缘地位的劳动者都在工作。

在今年的Marketplace-Edison Research调查中一组数字比较显眼：虽然37%的受访者表示个人经济情况好于去年（声称个人经济情况变差的有21.5%），但只有30.3%的受访者认为整体经济在改善。此外，36.9%的受访者认为经济变差。

如果经济情况变好的人数超过恶化的，那为什么认为整体经济变差的人反而更多呢？

一个符合逻辑的答案是新闻报道和某些政客让美国经济很糟糕的观点深入人心。如果你支持的候选人不断这么说，你很可能会接受，无论你对自身情况感受如何。

股市数据也能证明，是政治活动引发经济不确定性，而不是经济影响政治。美林财富管理部门证券投资策略主管玛丽·安·巴特尔斯指出，如果不是现任总统争取连任的大选年，竞争一般都会非常激烈，而标普500指数在此期间平均会下跌2.8%，而且会波动更剧烈。

同时，如果不提经济二字，单纯询问美国人对一些经济活动的看法，他们的观点就会积极得多。下面让我们看一下消费者信心调查的结果，问的都是购物。

如大家所见，金融危机过后消费者对经济的信心持续增强，但选民对美国发展状况的感受却很差。

而且，最担心经济的那些人其实并不是处境最差的。调查表明，唐纳德·特朗普的支持者经济状况好于美国人均水平，但他们对经济最为不满。

所以说，虽然政治活动中必须大谈经济，但说到底政治才真正决定选民对经济的看法。换句话说就是，提到经济时，“关键是政治，笨蛋。”(财富中文网)

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

James Carville’s famous dictum that “the economy, stupid,” drives election outcomes has become conventional wisdom.

In part because it seems to be true. But also because the notion that voters will choose a candidate based on their personal finances is comforting to the people who run campaigns and those who have to report on them. It poses that voters rationally choose their candidates based on their objective economic circumstances.

Here’s the problem: More and more evidence is confirming that this actually isn’t true, and that a voter’s political beliefs and the overall political environment instead drives how they feel about their economic circumstances.

There’s no better way to interpret the latest results from the latest Marketplace-Edison Research Poll, which showed that 30% percent of Americans are very fearful they will lose their job in the next six months, up 10% from last year. Nearly two-fifths of Americans say their financial situation is causing them to lose sleep, up from 28% when the survey was conducted last year.

But these numbers don’t mesh with economic statistics that objectively tell us how the economy is doing. The Census Bureau found that the median income last year rose by more than 5%, the largest single-year increase since the government began tracking the statistic in the 1960s. Meanwhile, other measures of wage growth have shown the pace of wage gains accelerating this year, at the same time that every measure of unemployment is going down. Even the labor force participation rate has risen this year, suggesting that the most economically marginalized workers are getting in on the action.

A particularly telling figure in this year’s survey: While 37% of those surveyed said their personal economic situation has improved over the past year—versus 21.5% who said it got worse—just 30.3% said the overall economy improved. What’s more, 36.9% said it got worse.

If more people’s financial situation improved than deteriorated, why do more people think its the opposite for the economy in general?

A logical answer is that news coverage and certain politicians have driven home the idea that the U.S. economy is in bad shape. If your favored political candidate is pushing such a message, it’s likely that you will begin to adopt that opinion yourself, regardless of the evidence you see regarding your own situation.

Data on the stock market also supports the idea that political campaigns drive economic uncertainty rather than the other way around. Mary Ann Bartels, Head of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Portfolio Strategy, points out that during election years when an incumbent isn’t up for reelection—when campaigns are typically very competitive—the S&P 500 has fallen on average by 2.8%, and volatility has increased.

Meanwhile, if ask Americans about their attitudes toward the economy outside of the context of the economy, they opinion improves greatly. Take a look at the Survey of Consumer confidence, which is really about shopping.

As you can see, consumers confidence about the economy has consistently risen since the end of the financial crisis, while voters feelings about the direction of the country has remained stuck in the mud.

And it’s not as if those most anxious about the economy are the ones who are doing the worst. Polls show that Donald Trump supporters are both wealthier than the country in general, and the most unhappy with the economy as well.

So while the economy is obviously very important to politics, it may be the case that politics are more important to voters views of the economy. Or put another way, when it comes to the economy, “It’s about politics, stupid.”