减排不瘦身：中国钢企并未削减产能

随着中国政府控霾力度不断加大，中国钢铁企业的环保水平可以说每个月都有所提高，然而这却并不等同于行业的“瘦身”。

虽然中国近来一直致力于加大环境整治的力度，同时削减钢铁行业的过剩产能，但在过去七个月里，作为全球第一大钢铁生产国的中国，其钢铁产量仍然较去年呈现了一定增长。

各大钢铁企业的成功“减排”，意味着中国钢企已经有能力满足日益苛刻的政府环保标准，同时也意味着随着这个行业的日益膨胀，中国政府或将更加难以削减钢铁行业的过剩产能。

从目前来看，国内市场的基建等领域对钢铁的需求依然强劲，并吸收了大多数的过剩供给。但随着中国经济降速倾向加剧，中国的钢铁企业或将被迫加大向海外销售的力度。

如果事态真的朝着这个方向发展，或许将导致中国与欧美的经贸关系再次趋于严峻。因为欧洲和美国虽然是中国最主要的贸易伙伴，但二者多年以来都在指责中国向海外市场倾销过剩钢铁，损害了国外生产商的利益，冲击了全球市场价格。

值得注意的是，中国近来刚刚举办了20国集团峰会。在峰会上，G20国家领袖还信誓旦旦地表示要通力合作，解决过剩产能问题。

中国第一大钢铁生产城市——河北省唐山市的例子生动地诠释了中国政府所面临的困局。为了举办一场为期几个月的国际园艺博览会，唐山市足足花了六个月的时间来搞环保清洁，以确保来访的各国高官能够看见蓝天——其中也包括中国的国家主席习近平。

河北省的钢铁产量相当于全国钢铁产量的五分之一。行业专家曾预计，园博会因素将使河北省的钢产量大幅下跌，从而在某种程度上也算实现了政府削减产能的目标。

然而事实上，钢铁产量的下跌幅度要远远低于专家的预期，因为就在钢铁企业大搞清洁化的同时，他们居然还在相当程度上保持了原有产能。

他们之所以能够做到这一点，很大程度上是由于今年钢铁价格已经上涨了40%，同时国内市场的强势需求预计还将持续。这也是为什么尽管中国的出口钢铁已经跌至二月以来的最低水平，但中国的钢铁产能仍能出现增长。

中国工信部官员黄立斌指出，截止到九月底，中国在煤炭和钢铁行业已经完成了全年80%的削减产能目标。

今年中国的目标是削减4500万吨过剩钢铁产能。

然而尽管中国在削减过剩产能和抑制大气污染方面已经动了真格的，却依然未能削弱钢铁行业的产量。据估算，中国每年生产的粗钢，光是其过剩量就达到近3亿吨，是全球第二大钢铁生产商日本的三倍。

杭州热联贸易公司投资经理夏军岩（音译）认为：“如果钢铁企业是盈利的，只要他们达到了环境标准，政府就没有理由要求他们削减产能。”

有行业内幕人士指出，自2014年政府在全国范围内采取了严厉的环境整治措施以来，虽然唐山有很多小型钢铁企业都关闭了，但一些大型钢铁厂也都安装或升级了环保设施。

据行业咨询机构Custeel.com的一项调查显示，在九月和十月份，为了迎接最近召开的园博会，一些钢铁企业被迫关停了烧结生产几天。所谓烧结生产，就是将铁矿石烧结成铁坯的过程。但是在六个月的环境整治期间，唐山市的150座左右的高炉的产量只有三次出现了下降，分别是在六月、七月和九月，而且产量下降的时间只有短短几天。

今年以来，唐山钢铁产量下降幅度最大的一次是在六月初，原因是中欧和东欧国家的领导人齐聚唐山商议经济合作，导致钢铁企业的开工率下降到了65%以下。另一次产量下降是在七月份，这一次是由于唐山市要纪念1976年的大地震，那次灾害至少导致了25万人丧生。

据Custeel.com显示，除了这两次特殊情况，唐山地区的钢铁企业普遍都达到了80%以上的产能。

杭州热联贸易公司的夏军岩表示：“生产可以是很灵活的。即便钢铁企业的生产暂时受到环境整治的因素影响，他们之后也可以加大产能以弥补损失。”

现在看来，为了打赢今年冬天的治霾战，政府已经做好了继续围绕唐山钢企做文章的准备。据一份政策文件显示，上周，河北省政府已经针对本地钢铁企业出台了一份所谓的“特别排放限值”。

上个月，国家发改委宣布，全国各地已有数百家钢铁和煤炭企业因违反环保和安全规定而受到处罚，有些企业甚至被迫关停或削减了产能。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Chinese steel mills are becoming cleaner every month as Beijing pushes to curb its smoke-stack industries. But they’re not getting any leaner.

Despite efforts to step up environmental checks and trim out excess capacity, steel output by the world’s top producer has risen year-on-year for the past seven months.

As emissions cuts will mean steel mills are better able to meet stricter government standards, Beijing may find it more difficult to cut overcapacity in a sprawling industry.

For now, domestic demand from infrastructure and construction has been robust, absorbing most of the extra supply. But a steeper slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy could force mills to ramp up sales abroad.

That could rekindle tensions with Europe and the United States, major trading partners which have for years accused China of dumping its excess steel overseas, hitting producers and hurting global prices.

The issue took center stage at a recent G20 summit in China when world leaders pledged to work to address excess output.

China’s top steel producing city of Tangshan in Hebei province illustrates Beijing’s dilemma. Hosting a months-long international horticultural show, Tangshan had a major six-month clean-up to ensure blue skies for visiting dignitaries, including the country’s president Xi Jinping.

Industry experts predicted this would see a big drop in output in a province that accounts for a fifth of national production, going some way to realizing government goals on output and capacity cuts.

But production dipped by far less than expected as mills sustained output even as they cleaned themselves up.

They could do this largely because steel prices have risen 40% this year, and strong domestic demand is expected to continue, underpinning those increases, though exports have fallen to their lowest since February.

By end-September, China had completed more than 80% of this year’s capacity reduction goals in coal and steel, said Huang Libin, an official at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

China has targeted a cut of 45 million tons from its surplus steel capacity this year.

But the battle to tackle excess capacity and curb pollution has failed to dent production. China’s annual crude steel surplus is estimated at around 300 million tonnes, three times the annual output of the world’s second-biggest producer, Japan.

“If steel mills are profitable, there’s no reason for the government to order them to reduce production if they meet environmental criteria,” said Xia Junyan, investment manager at Hangzhou CIEC Trading Co in Shanghai.

While many of Tangshan’s small mills have closed, bigger plants have installed or upgraded equipment since a nationwide environmental crackdown began in 2014, industry sources say.

Some were forced to cut sinter production—processing iron ore fines into lumps—for a few days in September and October to clear the skies during the recent horticultural show. But the city’s about 150 blast furnaces only dropped output three times—in June, July and September—and for only a couple of days during the six-month clean-up, according to a survey by industry consultancy Custeel.com.

The biggest drop was in early June when operating rates fell below 65% as leaders from central and eastern Europe gathered in Tangshan for talks on economic ties, followed by another fall in July as the city prepared to commemorate a 1976 earthquake that killed at least 250,000 people.

Otherwise, mills have been operating at above 80% of capacity this year, the Custeel.com survey showed.

“Production can be flexible. Even if production at steel mills is hit temporarily by the environmental crackdown, they can increase production later to offset the losses,” said Xia at Hangzhou CIEC Trading.

The government looks ready to keep targeting Tangshan’s mills in its war on winter smog, with Hebei province last week imposing what it calls “special emission restrictions” on local steel mills, according to a policy document.

Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state planner, said it punished hundreds of steel and coal companies nationwide for violating environmental and safety regulations. Some were forced to close or cut output.