习惯使用手机钱包了吗？它正在改变世界!

金融服务是一个经济体的命脉，它使无数家庭和企业具备了储蓄、投资和抵御风险的能力。即便是在科学昌明、经济高度发展的今天，许多新兴经济体的大部分群众和小企业仍然缺乏获得基本的储蓄和信用产品的渠道，从而阻碍了这些国家的经济增长，人民长期难以脱贫。广大发展中国家约有20亿人口缺乏使用银行服务的渠道，2亿家小企业无法获得业务增长所需的信贷，资金缺口累计达到2.2万亿美元。

这个问题的解决方案简单来说只有四个字——数字金融，即个人和企业无需亲自前往银行的办事机构，便可以直接完成支付、储蓄和贷款。数字化技术使所有这一切成为可能，它能将一部智能手机变成钱包、支票簿、银行，甚至账本——这些仅仅通过一部手机便能全部实现。

金融服务的普及能够对经济产生促进作用，尤其是在那些金融服务最不发达的国家和地区。对于这些国家来说，现在已经到了将它当成优先要务来发展的时候了。而在这些发展中国家，哪怕是在一些偏远地区，手机也已经无处不在了。智能手机的普及，使得一些从未考虑过在银行开户的人也拥有了享受金融服务的机会。目前，移动网络已经覆盖了新兴经济体近90%的人口，约80%以上的发展中国家成年人都是移动电话用户。

数字化技术大大降低了提供金融服务的成本。对于银行及其他金融机构来说，数字账户的维护成本要比传统账户低90%，每名顾客每年的维护成本仅有10美元，所以即使向低收入人群提供数字银行账户，也是有利润的。因此，向个人和小微企业普及金融服务这一长期目标，现在也有可能变成现实。

我们的研究显示，数字金融可以让16亿发展中国家人口获得金融账户、贷款以及其它必需的金融服务（而且还可以令其他已拥有银行账户的24亿人降低金融服务的使用成本，并提高服务的便捷性）。许多新顾客位列全球最贫困的40%人口，且半数以上是女性。而这些新顾客所储蓄的资金，则可以借贷给发展中国家的广大中小微企业。

另据我们估算，随着新兴经济体金融服务渠道的扩展，到2025年，全球广大新兴经济体的GDP可累计增加3.7万亿美元，占这些国家GDP总值的6%，大致相当于当前整个非洲GDP的1.5倍。这些新增GDP最多能创造9500万个新增就业岗位。一些最低收入国家有望获得最多的收益，金融服务的普及最多可推动其GDP增加10%至12%。

数字金融在发展中国家得到普及，需要一些必要的条件。首当其冲的是基础建设，包括广泛的手机普及率、网络覆盖率，以及能够被社会普遍接受的服务价格。其次是一个坚实可靠的数字支付系统，以及被广泛应用的ID系统——最好具备数字实名认证功能。此外还要有良好的商业环境，使广大服务供应商可以公平竞争，创新研发新型的数字金融产品及服务。这就要求监管机构必须在谨慎监管和鼓励创新之间达到某种平衡。

企业无论规模大小，都能从数字金融中获得很大利益。首先，发展中国家的企业如果将结算全部由现金改为数字支付，则至少可以节省250亿小时工时。目前，发展中国家有90%的交易是用现金结算的。由于企业主必须要费心保管大量现金，他们往往无暇于业务扩张，毕竟一个人不可能同时出现在两家店里保管现金。另外，如果企业采用了移动支付的方式进行结算，他们也可以轻易地获得一份销售记录，从而更好地进行存货管理。数字支付还能产生一条可追踪的数据链，因此哪怕是规模再微不足道的小企业，信贷机构也能查到其信誉度。

金融服务供应商也有一个很大的机会。从实体机构转型为数字化战略之后，金融服务业每年可合计削减4000亿美元的成本。由于数字金融能够以相对较低的成本拓展客户群，它可以吸揽超过4万亿美元的新增存款，而这笔钱又可以用来借贷。这样一来，被老百姓藏在床垫底下的“死钱”又可以进入流通领域，为国民经济增添活力和流动性。

政府也同样能从中获益。通过压缩贪腐机会，更精准地进行各项开支，并改善征税效率，数字支付有助于一国政府的财政状况。我们预计，数字化支付每年有望为这些国家新增1100亿美元的财政收入。包括教育和医疗在内的许多公共服务都能够从中获益。比如，科特迪瓦的家长们以往都是用现金交学费，但在这个国家，抢劫和贪污受贿横行。从2011年开始，科特迪瓦引入了移动支付服务。到2014年，几乎所有学校的学费都是通过数字支付的，其中绝大部分是通过手机。学生和家长再也不用担心学费被人抢走了，而学校也有了更充足的预算。移动金融服务商们获得了新的交易，还获得了政府的拨款；该国教育部也省下了不少钱，而且能够获得更多、更优质的学生信息。

虽然在广大发展中国家，金融服务的普及仍然路漫漫而修远，但所有趋势都在朝着正确的方向前进。数字金融所需的无线基础架构已经基本就位，它正是一个适合我们这个时代的理念。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

审校：任文科

本文作者James Manyika是麦肯锡全球研究院主管，Rodger Voorhies是比尔-梅琳达盖茨基金会全球发展部常务董事。

Financial services are the lifeblood of an economy, enabling households and businesses alike to save, invest, and protect themselves against risk. Yet in many emerging economies today, the majority of individuals and small businesses lack access to basic savings and credit products, which hinders economic growth and perpetuates poverty. Two billion people in the developing world lack access to a bank, and 200 million small businesses cannot get the credit they need to grow, a gap estimated at $2.2 trillion.

The solution can be summed up in two words: digital finance, the idea that individuals and companies can have access to payments, savings, and credit products without ever stepping into a bank branch. This is possible through digitization, which can essentially turn a smartphone into a wallet, a checkbook, a bank branch, and an accounting ledger, all in one.

Financial inclusion could help boost economies, especially in parts of the world that need it most. Now is the time to make this a priority. The ubiquity of the mobile phone, even in remote areas in emerging markets, makes it possible to bring financial services to people who have never even considered opening a bank account. Already, mobile networks reach nearly 90% of people in emerging economies and 80% of adults have a mobile phone subscription.

Digital dramatically lowers the cost of providing financial services. Digital accounts can be 90% cheaper than conventional ones for banks and other providers to maintain, costing as little as $10 annually per customer. This makes it profitable to provide accounts for lower-income people. The long-held goal of financial inclusion — for individuals and for micro and small businesses — can now become a reality.

Our research shows that digital finance could enable 1.6 billion people in developing countries to access financial accounts, loans, and other financial necessities (and lower the cost and increase the convenience for the 2.4 billion who already have bank accounts). Many new customers would be among the poorest 40% of people in the world; more than half would be women. The balances that these new customers accumulate can then be loaned out, providing up to $2.1 trillion in new loans for individuals and micro, small and mid-sized businesses.

What’s more, we estimate that improving access to financial services could add $3.7 trillion to the GDP of emerging economies by 2025, or 6% — equal to 1.5 times the current GDP of all of Africa. The additional GDP could create up to 95 million new jobs. The lowest-income countries stand to gain the most, adding as much as 10% to 12% to their GDP.

There are several building blocks that need to be in place for digital finance to take off. One is the right infrastructure, which includes widespread phone ownership and network coverage at an affordable price; a robust digital payments system; and widely used ID systems preferably with digital authentication. What’s also needed is the right business environment where a range of providers can compete on a level playing field and innovative new digital finance products and services. This requires regulations that strike a balance between prudence to avoid undue risk, and innovation.

Businesses of all sizes stand to gain in big ways. Businesses could save 25 billion hours of labor by switching from cash to digital payments. Some 90% of transactions in the developing world are in cash, but having to protect piles of currency deters owners from expanding, since they cannot be in two places at once. Firms that accept or pay with mobile payments gain ready access to sales records, allowing for better inventory

management. In addition, digital payments create a data trail that enables lenders to assess the creditworthiness of even micro-enterprises.

Financial service providers have a big opportunity as well. They could cut costs by up to $400 billion annually by evolving from bricks and mortar to digital strategies. And because they can expand their customer base at relatively low cost, they could collect more than $4 trillion in new deposits—money that can be converted into loans. Savings that are currently stored under mattresses can be put to work, adding more activity and liquidity to the economy.

Governments benefit, too. Digital payments could improve their finances by reducing opportunities for corruption, targeting spending more precisely, and improving tax collection. We estimate that they stand to gain $110 billion per year by digitizing payments. Many government services, such as education and healthcare, stand to gain. For example, parents in the Côte d’Ivoire used to pay school fees in cash, but robbery and bribery were common. So beginning in 2011, the country began introducing mobile money payments. By 2014, nearly all school fees were paid digitally, mainly by phone. Parents and students no longer had to worry about being robbed—and more money made it into school budgets. Mobile money providers got new transactions, plus fees from the government. The education ministry saved money and gathered more and better student information.

While financial inclusion is far from inevitable, all the trends are moving in the right direction. The wireless infrastructure is mostly in place. The idea suits our times.