德意志银行陷入困境，中国基金成为援兵

在多变的中外合资企业历史当中，事实证明，德意志银行所持有的北京嘉实基金管理公司30%的股权是一笔明智的投资。鉴于德意志银行据称因在美国销售抵押担保证券而面临巨额罚款，这笔投资可能能让德国银行得到喘息的机会。

嘉实基金管理公司成立于1999年。截至6月份，公司旗下管理的资产总额约为960亿美元。根据Willis Towers Watson最新排名，这家私营公司已发展成为中国第四大资产管理商。

德意志亚洲资产管理公司2005年持有嘉实19.5%的股份，然后在2008年增持至30%。然而该公司并未披露股权的购买价格。

嘉实并未向外界公布其财务状况，但业界内部人士称，他们认为该公司处于盈利状态，而且是大陆共同基金资产热背后的受益大户。上海咨奔商务咨询公司预计，到2021年，大陆共同基金资产规模将增长一倍多，达到3万亿美元。

除了让德意志亚洲资产管理公司分享欣欣向荣但限制颇多的大陆市场外，该合资企业还推出了多款大获成功的离岸产品，例如与中国某个股票基准挂钩的嘉实CSI 300交易型开放式指数基金。

咨奔公司估计，德意志亚洲资产管理公司的嘉实股份价值可能高达10亿美元。

释放价值

德意志银行首席执行官John Cryan表示，公司上个月对资产管理业务进行了审核，该业务在去年创造了33亿欧元（约合37亿美元）的营收。但他补充道，他仍将合资企业看作是集团“密不可分”的一部分。

然而，分析师建议，如果德意志银行未能就据称的抵押担保债券不当销售一事，说服美国司法部大幅降低其最初要求的140亿美元罚金，那么德意志银行应释放这一资产的价值。

《金融时报》称，上个月，德意志银行正在筹划资产管理业务的上市。

德意志银行和嘉实拒绝就此事置评。

直接销售嘉实股份并不是件容易的事情，因为根据中外合资企业条款，国内合作方通常享有以折扣价购买外国合作方所持股份的第一购股权。同时，还有很多外国企业寻求销售其在中国资产管理公司的股份，这也意味着有很多其他资产可供买家选择。

咨奔公司提到，要变现嘉实股权的价值，一个更好的方法在于让整个或部分资产管理部门上市。

咨奔公司首席执行官Peter Alexander说：“嘉实股份是德意志资产管理公司的掌上明珠，但鉴于在中国退出此类合资企业的复杂性，首次公开募股是德意志银行完全释放其价值的最佳方式。”

北京中央政府最近开放市场的举措降低了合资企业对意欲进军中国的外国资产管理商的吸引力，而且在经历了过去两年的撤资潮之后，争抢买家的竞争已变得十分激烈。

银行人士称，此类撤资通常会遭到中国监管机构的反对，而中央政府对资本外流的严格控制也让销售现金收益的回流变得更加困难。德意志银行本周刚刚获得了中国监管方的批准，以最高40亿美元的价格销售其持有的北京华夏银行20%的股份，而监管方在去年年底便已同意该股份的销售。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：詹妮

In the checkered history of foreign-Sino joint ventures, Deutsche Bank’s DB -0.88% 30% stake in Beijing-based Harvest Fund Management has proven a savvy investment – and may provide the German bank with a cushion as it faces a big penalty for allegedly misselling mortgage-backed securities in the United States.

Established in 1999 and with around $96 billion in assets under management as of June, privately-owned Harvest has grown to become China’s fourth largest asset manager, according to rankings recently produced by Willis Towers Watson.

Deutsche Asset Management Asia took a 19.5% stake in Harvest in 2005, and then raised that to 30% in 2008. It has not disclosed the price it paid for the stake.

Harvest’s financials are not public, but industry insiders say they believe it is profitable and in a prime position to benefit from a boom in mainland mutual fund assets which Shanghai consultancy Z-Ben Advisors forecasts will more than double to $3 trillion by 2021.

In addition to giving Deutsche a slice of the booming but restricted mainland market, the venture has spawned successful offshore products such as the Harvest CSI 300 ETF, which is based on a benchmark of Chinese stocks.

Z-Ben estimates Deutsche’s Harvest stake could be worth upwards of $1 billion.

UNLOCKING THE VALUE

Deutsche CEO John Cryan said last month the asset management business, which generated 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) in revenue last year, was being reviewed but added he wanted it to remain an “integral” part of the group.

Analysts, though, have suggested that Deutsche could look to unlock the value of the business if the bank fails to persuade the U.S. Department of Justice to substantially reduce an initial demand for $14 billion in penalties over the alleged misselling of mortgage-backed securities.

The Financial Times reported last month that Deutsche Bank is working on a public listing of the asset management business.

Deutsche Bank and Harvest declined to comment for this story.

A direct sale of the Harvest stake would be tricky because under the terms of sino-foreign joint ventures the domestic partner typically enjoys first option to buy the foreign partner’s holding at a discount. Also there are a host of other foreign companies seeking to exit their stakes in Chinese asset management companies, which means there are many other assets available for buyers.

A better avenue for Deutsche to monetize Harvest’s value would be to float all or parts of the asset management unit, according to a note from Z-Ben.

“The Harvest stake is Deutsche Asset Management’s crown jewel, but due to the complexity of exiting such joint venture investments in China an IPO would allow the German bank the best route to fully unlock its value,” said Peter Alexander, Z-Ben’s chief executive.

Beijing’s recent moves to open-up the market has made joint ventures a less attractive avenue for foreign asset managers seeking to access China, and competition for buyers is already fierce after a flurry of divestments over the past two years.

Such divestments are generally frowned upon by Chinese regulators, while Beijing’s clampdown on capital outflows is making it tougher to repatriate sale proceeds, according to bankers. Deutsche just this week gained Chinese regulatory approval for the sale of its 20% stake in Beijing-based Hua Xia Bank for up to $4 billion. It agreed on the sale late last year.