70年全球秩序即将逆转？要看未来这几件大事

英国脱欧可以算作偶然事件。英国脱欧加上特朗普胜选看上去则像是某种初具雏形的趋势。所有国家领导人目前面临的一大问题就是，这种趋势会不会愈演愈烈，或者说各国会不会越来越快地脱离此前70年所建立的开放式全球秩序。今后几个月，各国领导者将会关注几件事，以便找到答案。

历史教育我们，开放必须要争取。商品、资本和人员的自由流动总会遇到强大阻力。今天的全球化是个让人心动的非凡成就，但要记住，以前也曾出现过这样的局面。一战前的几十年时间里，人们游走于欧洲以及世界上大多数地区时并不需要护照。劳动移民穿越国境几乎不受限制。贸易越发自由，并在许多经济体中占据越来越大的比例。

一战迅速逆转了这种趋势，而且直到二战后，各国才有机会启动重返全球化秩序的伟大进程。这个过程让数十亿人摆脱了贫困，而且耗费了几十年时间，因为每一步都是一场战斗。

我们又要推翻这一切了吗？有可能。英国脱欧显然和欧洲的开放趋势背道而驰。唐纳德·特朗普承诺对来自中国和墨西哥的进口产品施以重税。如果他履行这些承诺，就可能引发报复行为，进而造成全球贸易急剧萎缩。同时，如果美国像他所说的那样退出北美自贸区和世贸组织，几十年来推广自由贸易的努力就会付之东流。

特朗普的这些举动有可能让全球在经过了一个长期的开放周期后大步迈向封闭的新周期。此外，还有一些情况也值得关注。

12月4日意大利公投的结果可能表明，公开反对全球化的五星运动得到了支持。同一天，奥地利将进行第二轮总统选举。自由党候选人诺伯特·霍费尔很可能获得选民强烈支持并赢得大选；他的政党主张反建制和反移民。现在看来，明年4-5月的法国总统大选可能成为玛玛·勒庞最强势的一场秀，而她领导的正是贸易保护主义以及反移民政党国民阵线。

最后，德国将在明年下半年举行联邦选举。在最近的地区性选举中，最令人吃惊的选情无外乎总理安吉拉·默克尔所在政党的支持率每况愈下，以及反移民、反欧元也反对欧洲进一步一体化的德国新选择党强势崛起。

在意奥法德以及其他明年举行大选的国家，特别是匈牙利与荷兰，民粹主义者都在欢庆特朗普的胜利，原因是他们认为特朗普当选是英国脱欧后迈出的第二步，它将加快逆转当今的开放式世界秩序。

这话也许不假。封闭对经济有破坏作用，它招致了自保或报复，后者反过来又加剧了封闭。因此，封闭会自我强化；开放对经济有建设作用，但开放不会自我强化，需要世人努力争取。我们很快就会知道，这个世界会走向何方。结果不管怎样，都会产生重要的影响。

Brexit could be regarded as a fluke. Brexit plus Trump starts to look like a trend. A large question for all leaders now is whether the trend becomes self-reinforcing, an accelerating spiral of nations rejecting the open global order built over the past 70 years. Leaders will want to monitor several indicators that will answer that question in coming months.

A lesson of history is that openness has to be fought for. Free movement of goods, capital, and people always confronts powerful opponents. Today’s globalism strikes us as a remarkable achievement, but remember that we’ve been here before. In the decades before World War I, people traveled across Europe and over most of the world without passports. Migrant workers crossed borders with few restrictions. And trade was increasingly free, accounting for a rising proportion of GDP in many economies.

The war quickly reversed all that progress, and not until after World War II could nations begin the great project of returning to a more global order, which has since lifted billions of people out of poverty. It has taken decades because every step has been a fight.

Are we about to reverse all that progress again? Could be. Brexit is an obvious reversal of the trend toward a more open Europe. Donald Trump’s promises to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, if he keeps them, would spark retaliation and a plunge in global trade. Exiting Nafta and the World Trade Organization, as he has also threatened to do, would cancel decades of work to widen free trade.

Such actions by Trump would be especially dramatic steps toward a new cycle of global closing after a long cycle of opening, but other indicators also bear watching.

Results of a national referendum in Italy on Dec. 4 could signal support for the explicitly anti-globalist 5 Star Movement. On that same day, Austria will hold the second round of its presidential election, in which Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer will probably do well and may win; his party is anti-establishment and anti-immigrant. And France’s presidential election in April and May now seems likely to be the strongest showing yet for Marine Le Pen, leader of the protectionist, anti-immigrant National Front.

Finally, Germany will hold a federal election sometime in next year’s second half; the most striking trend in recent local and regional elections has been the weakening popularity of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party and the strong rise of Alternative for Germany, which is anti-immigrant, anti-euro, and opposed to further European integration.

Populists in those countries and others, notably Hungary and the Netherlands, which also hold elections next year, cheered Trump’s win. They’re celebrating it as another step, after Brexit, toward an accelerating reversal of today’s open world order.

Which it may be. Closing, which is economically destructive, begets more closing as self-defense or retaliation; it’s self-reinforcing. Opening, which is economically constructive, isn’t; it has to be fought for. We’ll know soon enough which way the world is heading. For better or worse, the consequences will be momentous.