人工智能的两大风险：或将致半数人口失业

要说比尔·盖茨、伊隆·马斯克、史蒂芬·霍金这三位大牛都有什么共同点，那就是他们三人都曾公开表示过对人工智能和机器人的恐惧与担忧。

虽然这两种技术都是极有前景的技术，并且必然会对未来产生深远的影响，但我们也要知道，这两门技术的发展将会给人类社会带来哪些后果——尤其是在劳动力方面。

近日，约翰·马尔科夫在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇文章，这篇文章与我的第一个担忧不谋而合。他指出，虽然人工智能有很大的潜力为人类造福，但犯罪分子也有可能利用AI技术从事一些不法活动。他在文中写道：

“古德曼先生指出，从当前许多网络攻击工具（如“黑影”（Blackshades）等一批被广泛使用的恶意程序）的演化中可以看出，网络犯罪分子的技术已经变得越来越高超。“黑影”程序的编写者是一名瑞典人，他于去年在美国被判刑。

古德曼先生表示，“黑影”系统在网络黑市销路很广，成了一个“盒子里的犯罪产业”。就算是没有任何技术背景的用户，只需用鼠标轻轻一点，就可以向他人电脑植入勒索软件，对受害人进行窃听或偷窥。”

下一代的恶意攻击程序还将添加机器学习功能。而机器学习技术本来是人工智能领域的专家们为了提高机器视觉、语言识别、语音合成和自然语言识别等技术的水平而研发的。有些网络安全研究人员认为，网络犯罪分子进行人工智能方面的试验已经至少有五年了。

从某种程度上，人工智能犯罪已经从科幻变成了现实。比如最近，我们都知道亚马逊和Netflix等一些大企业的官网由于受到“分布式拒绝服务攻击”（DDoS）而一度陷入瘫痪。我们尚不清楚这一波袭击背后的动机是什么，要解答这个问题可能还需要一些时间。不过马尔科夫也指出，人工智能技术被应用于犯罪的风险是确实存在的，我们必须明白这一点，这样将来才能设法规避这些风险。

人工智能和机器人技术带来的另一隐忧，则是它们有可能会大面积取代人力劳动，从而导致大批工作岗位消失。现在已经有越来越多从事就业市场研究的人认识到了这个问题的严重性。比如《每日电讯报》的科技编辑萨拉·纳普顿去年四月曾经写道：

“有专家表示，未来30年里，社会上的大多数工作岗位都将被机器人所取代，人类将面临‘有史以来的最大挑战’。当工作不再成为必需，我们将如何寻找人生的意义？

美国莱斯大学计算机工程学教授摩西·瓦尔迪指出，不出短短几十年，许多中产劳动者的工作将会被‘外包’给机器完成，从而使劳动者有了比以往任何时候都更多的时间用来休闲。

摩西·瓦尔迪教授在出席于华盛顿举办的美国科学促进会年会时表示，机器人的崛起将导致就业率攀升至50%以上。‘机器在几乎任何任务上超越人类的时代已经离我们很近了。’”

虽然休闲的生活让很多人感到神往，然而事实上，劳动和工作对我们的生活方式和存在感非常重要。更重要的是，工作为我们提供了生计。据部分专家预测，到2050年，全球人口将达到100亿人。如果瓦尔迪的预言成为了现实，机器人真的取代了市场上50%的劳动力，那对于人类来说无疑将是一场灾难。

对于我这一代人，哪怕是比我还年轻的这一代人来说，把这个问题抛给再下一代人来解决，当然是很容易的做法。不过我认为我们不应坐等这一噩梦变成现实。硅谷的商业精英和华盛顿的政治家们既应该把人工智能和机器人技术的发展当成一次机遇，但他们也应该意识到，如果处理不当，它们也会成为一项重大威胁。

所有的专家都应该听听盖茨、马斯克和霍金等人的警告，在研发产品时，一定要做好防护和安全手段。与此同时，我们也应该对教育体系进行调整，重点加大对科学、技术、工程、数学等领域的学习力度。因为在未来的世界中，科技和自动化的大浪淘沙将使我们的孩子们正在全力准备的许多工作成为历史，而这些技术将成为新时代里最实用的“铁饭碗”。

我认为人工智能和机器人技术能极大地造福人类，但它们同时也会带来一系列风险。不论是硅谷、整个科技界还是我们的政治领袖，都需要正视这个问题，并且应该立即携手解决这具问题。我们身后的几代人的幸福都系于此。(财富中文网)

译者：朴成奎

Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking all have something in common: All three have gone on the record sharing their concerns and fears about artificial intelligence and robotics.

While these technologies hold a great deal of promise, and will have a real impact on our future, it’s important for us to understand the ramifications they could have for all of us, particularly in terms of labor.

My first big concern about AI was recently highlighted in a New York Times piece by John Markoff, who wrote that while AI has great potential for good, it could also be abused by criminals who might use it for their nefarious goals. Here’s Markoff:

The growing sophistication of computer criminals can be seen in the evolution of attack tools like the widely used malicious program known as Blackshades, according to Mr. Goodman. The author of the program, a Swedish national, was convicted last year in the United States.

The system, which was sold widely in the computer underground, functioned as a “criminal franchise in a box,” Mr. Goodman said. It allowed users without technical skills to deploy computer ransomware or perform video or audio eavesdropping with a mouse click.

The next generation of these tools will add machine learning capabilities that have been pioneered by artificial intelligence researchers to improve the quality of machine vision, speech understanding, speech synthesis and natural language understanding. Some computer security researchers believe that digital criminals have been experimenting with the use of A.I. technologies for more than half a decade.

To some degree, we saw this scenario play out recently when sites like Amazon, Netflix, and others were crippled for hours by “bots” involved in a Distributed Denial of Service, or DDoS, attack. The motive behind the attack remains unclear, and it will take some time to sort that out. But as Markoff pointed out, the criminal potential for AI is real and needs to be understood now to try and head off these kinds of attacks in the future.

AI and robotics also concern me in terms of their role in replacing people in the labor force, thus eliminating jobs. I’m hearing from more and more people who study the job market and believe this problem is very real. Telegraph Science Editor Sarah Knapton wrote the following last April:

“Robots will have taken over most jobs within 30 years leaving humanity facing its ‘biggest challenge ever’ to find meaning in life when work is no longer necessary, according to experts.

Professor Moshe Vardi, of Rice University, in the US, claims that many middle-class professionals will be outsources to machines within the next few decades leaving workers with more leisure time than they have ever experienced.

Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, Prof Moshe said the rise of robots could lead to unemployment rates greater than 50 per cent. “We are approaching a time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task,” said Vardi, a professor in computational engineering.”

While a life of leisure may be appealing to many, the fact is that work and jobs are important to our overall lifestyle and identity. Even more importantly, they provide our livelihood. Forecasters believe that by 2050 there will be close to 10 billion people on the earth. If Vardi is right, and robots could replace as many as 50% of the workers in the market, we’re headed for disaster.

It’s easy for my generation, or even those younger than I, to cast off this problem as one for others to solve. But I don’t think we can wait to address this potential nightmare scenario. Leaders in Silicon Valley and Washington need to view AI and robotics as an opportunity, but also a threat if mishandled.

AI experts need to heed the warnings of people like Gates, Musk, and Hawking, and build safeguards and security into the products they create. Our education system, meanwhile, needs to be retooled to emphasize STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) learning, the sort of skills that will be most useful in a world where technology and automation could wipe out many of the jobs for which our children are currently being prepared.

I see plenty of potential for good in AI and robotics. But I also see the dangers. Silicon Valley, the broader technology world, and our political leaders need to understand this problem and begin working together to deal with it immediately. The generations behind us are counting on it.