连续几年靠续集打天下，好莱坞明年能有什么新招？

好莱坞已经准备好新一年票房继续火爆。随着2016年接近尾声，继去年美国本土票房突破110亿美元创下行业纪录后，今年又将打破纪录。

2016年电影行业最大亮点是米老鼠老家——迪士尼爆发，全球票房创下新纪录。2016年迪士尼全球狂收70亿美元票房，在各家电影公司里排名第一。

2017年有什么可期待？现在要猜明年票房破120亿美元可能为时尚早，但乐观估计2017年将连续第三年破纪录还是有把握的。

“2017像个怪兽，不只是对迪士尼来说，对每个人都是。”数据分析公司ComScore高级媒体分析师保罗·德加比第安告诉《财富》杂志。据德加比第安预测，2016年票房比2015年不会多过2%，明年统治好莱坞票房的可能花落别家。他表示，每年似乎都像“击鼓传花”，这一年某家公司独大，下一年就换成另一家。

此前年度票房纪录由康卡斯特的环球影业去年创下，该公司也有一些近年赚得数十亿美元的续集将于2017年上映，例如《神偷奶爸3》，还有去年的大黑马《五十度灰》续集。环球影业还找来汤姆·克鲁斯拍新系列怪兽电影《新木乃伊》。

时代华纳旗下的华纳兄弟也手握一群超级英雄（《神奇女侠》、《正义联盟》和《乐高大电影：蝙蝠侠》），近来期待上世纪80年代科幻佳片《银翼杀手》续集——《银翼杀手2049》的呼声也不小。

虽然周围虎视眈眈，但2017的大赢家可能还是迪士尼。明年会有两部漫威大片上映（《银河护卫队2》和《雷神3：诸神的黄昏》），真人版《美女与野兽》，皮克斯工作室会推出两部新片（包括《赛车总动员3》），还有《加勒比海盗》系列第五部（《加勒比海盗》前作中有两部票房超过10亿美元）。这还不算完，明年底迪士尼还会奉上超级大片《星球大战》新一部续集——《星球大战8》将于2017年12月上映。

当然了，即便经过热炒，大片也有可能票房惨败。以前再成功，粉丝对高调大片再充满期待，也并不能保证2017年大片会个个成功。也要考虑以下未知因素：

国际票房市场

如果把海外票房加进来看，2016年票房排名前十的电影全是海外比国内赚钱多（票房第一的电影，迪士尼出品的《美国队长3：内战》11.5亿美元票房里近65%来自海外市场）。“如果票房想突破10亿美元，国际那块是必不可少的。” 德加比第安表示。

中国已是美国以外最大的电影市场，虽然2016年增速略有放缓，但很可能近期内就会超越美国。唐纳德·特朗普当选后，好莱坞已有人担心新政府与中国的关系。特朗普很不看好与中国之间的贸易，他执掌的政府可能会放缓中国对好莱坞的投资。外交层面一点风吹草动都有可能影响中国电影市场的限制以及复杂的监管系统，目前外国进口片在中国上映的数量都是受限制的。

实际电影票销售持续疲软

虽然票房总收入接连破纪录，但电影票实际销售已多年未见增长。2015年电影票销量与前五年几乎持平，比起十年前下降了2.5%。近几年电影票价提升推动票房收入节节走高，但每年进电影院观影的人数并未同步增加。这是值得全行业关注的问题，尤其是当下还面临网络视频和家庭娱乐选择增多的冲击。结果看起来电影行业逐渐接受了优先在线观看的选项，即电影公司在网站和实体影院同步发行。

续集疲劳

好莱坞近来常被批评缺乏创意，明年很可能也不会改观。2017年几乎所有肩负众望的大片都是续集、改编、经典翻拍，派生作品等等。去年夏天上映的一些片子不尽如人意（可以说完全失败），所以不少观众产生了“续集疲劳证”或“续集病”。当然了，一般大片续集票房惨遭滑铁卢后指责声比较响，如果票房大卖没什么人说（例子：迪士尼的漫威系列和星战系列，再看神偷奶爸系列和饥饿游戏系列。不过，有些续集虽然口碑差票房还是火热。）虽然今后还是可能碰上票房毒药，好莱坞电影工业的模式也会持续，但历史经验已经表明，指望续集大卖的电影公司往往真能横扫票房。 （财富中文网）

作者：Tom Huddleston Jr.

译者：冯丰

审校：夏林

Hollywood is wrapping up another big year at the box office. As the year comes to a close, the domestic box office is on pace to set another new industry record just one year after topping $11 billion in domestic movie ticket sales for the first time ever.

2016's movie industry highlights include a monster year for Walt Disney, as the Mouse House set a new yearly global box office record, becoming the first studio to ever top $7 billion in worldwide ticket sales.

What should we expect in 2017? It may be too soon to predict a $12 billion box office next year, but there's certainly reason for optimism that 2017 can be Hollywood's third-straight record-breaking year.

" 2017 looks like a monster—not just for Disney, but for everyone," Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore, tells Fortune. Dergarabedian predicts that 2016 will end up outpacing 2015's record year by no more than 2% and that next year could see a different Hollywood studio dominate the box office. Every year, he says, there seems to be a sort of "passing of the baton" as one studio's massive year gives way to another of the major Hollywood production houses.

Comcast's (cmcsa) Universal Studios held the previous single-year box office record, which it set just last year, and the studio has a handful of sequels from franchises that have recently produced billion-dollar films on deck for 2017—The Fate of the Furious and Despicable Me 3—as well as the sequel to last year's sleeper hit, Fifty Shades of Grey. Universal will also launch its new universe of monster movies with Tom Cruise starring in The Mummy.

Time Warner's Warner Bros. has a full slate of superhero titles (Wonder Woman, Justice League, and The LEGO Batman Movie), and the studio is already seeing a lot of buzz around Blade Runner 2049, its long-awaited sequel to the beloved 1980s sci-fi movie.

When all is said and done, though, 2017 could once again be the year of Disney . The studio has two more big Marvel releases (Guardians of the Galaxy 2 and Thor: Ragnarok) as well as a live-action version of Beauty and the Beast, two new movies from Pixar Animation Studios (including Cars 3), and a fifth installment in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise (two of the first PotC films grossed more than $1 billion apiece). And, to top it all off, Disney will end the year with yet another installment from the massively successful Star Wars franchise, with Episode VIII set for a December release.

Of course, even over-hyped, big-budget blockbusters can turn into major flops at the box office. Prior success and fan excitement over high-profile movie titles don't guarantee that 2017 will be a blockbuster year for Hollywood. Here are some variables to consider:

The International Market

To put the importance of the overseas box office into perspective, all of the 10 highest-grossing films of 2016 made more money overseas than domestically (the top film, Disney's Captain America: Civil War, made almost 65% of its $1.15 billion total through international release). "If you’re going to get over that billion-dollar hurdle, you need that international component of the box office," Dergarabedian says.

China is the largest movie market outside of the U.S., and it could even outpace the U.S. in the relatively near future despite much slower growth in 2016. There is already concern in Hollywood over how President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration will affect the U.S.'s relationship with China. Trump has taken a dim view of China's trade policies, and his administration could create a slow-down in Chinese investments in Hollywood. Any chilling effect on diplomatic relations could also affect the Chinese market’s strict and complicated regulatory system, which limits the number of foreign-made movies that are released in the country each year.

Actual Ticket Sales Continue Slumping

Despite record years in terms of total gross, the number of actual tickets sold by movie theaters has been plateauing for years. The number of actual tickets sold in 2015 was essentially flat compared to the previous five years and the number was down by about 2.5% from a decade earlier. Ongoing ticket-price inflation has kept box office revenues climbing the past couple of years, but the fact remains that the number of people actually going to the movies each year has not shown the same growth. It's an obvious point of concern for the industry at large, especially given the rise in streaming and other at-home entertainment options. As a result, the industry has even seems to be gradually warming to the idea of premium streaming options, where studios release movies for customers to stream at home while they're still showing in theaters.

Sequel Fatigue

The common complaint about the seeming lack of originality in Hollywood probably isn't going anywhere in the next year. Nearly all of the most-anticipated movies of 2017 are sequels, adaptations, franchise reboots, spin-offs, etc. When a number of those types of films disappointed (or outright bombed) last summer, there was plenty of concern that moviegoers were suffering from "sequel fatigue" or "sequelitis." Of course, complaints about the proliferation of sequels tend to be much louder in the wake of a high-profile flop than they are after the release of financially and critically successful follow-ups (see: Disney's Marvel and Star Wars franchises, or the Despicable Me and Hunger Games movies, to name a few—though, some movies still make a ton of money despite toxic reviews). Even with the potential for major flops, Hollywood's movie franchise model is here to stay, but history shows us that the studios that aim for critical success with their sequels tend to land more hits at the box office.