今年的达沃斯论坛上，全球领导人将谈论这三大趋势
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在思想领导力风暴与鸡尾酒会之前，宁静的达沃斯。 世界经济论坛可能很快将会迎来唐纳德·特朗普的清晨推特风暴。 这一有CEO、学术专家和世界领导人出席的年度盛会将在本周举行，该会议的主题通常会受到世界事件的影响。许多与会者会乘坐私人飞机和直升机抵达达沃斯。世界经济论坛的初衷是在这个群山环绕、远离都市喧嚣的瑞士偏远滑雪小镇，使领导者们能够讨论一些世界问题的长期解决方案。但结果往往事与愿违。 例如，去年，该年度大会的官方主题是讨论技术变革，即自动化，将如何改变全球经济，减少就业和加剧不公平。但实际上，对话的主题却变成了金融市场和油价大幅下跌。在2015年年末和2016年年初，金融市场经历过一次小规模的危机。 而今年的达沃斯论坛或许是因为多年来第一次与美国总统就职仪式重合，因此世界经济论坛的组织者似乎决定更直接地讨论世界事件。今年的主题是“领导力：应势而为，勇于担当”。此次论坛吸引了世界领导者和《财富》500强的高管。该论坛及其与会者似乎都倾向于支持全球化和自由贸易，因此可以预想，今年的主题不止会直接针对唐纳德·特朗普，也包括奈杰尔·法拉奇和支持脱欧的其他英国领导人。会议的首批专题讨论内容，将涉及如何解决虚假新闻时代的全球问题。一直以来，达沃斯都因为聚集了一些脱离群众的精英而遭到批评。但有评论员认为，今年的论坛比以往更加相关，因为出席大会的自由主义者和全球化者，均必须面对他们正在遭遇失败的现实。 世界经济论坛的组织者表示，他们在特朗普赢得美国大选之前和英国公投支持脱欧之后，选择了今年的主题。 达沃斯论坛将于周一晚上举行开幕仪式，并且在周五结束。其官方的专题讨论与世界领导人演讲，将在位于中心的会议中心进行，这里也是活动的中心。并非所有专题讨论均对外开放，既然达沃斯论坛被称为今年最精英的大会之一，因此论坛推出了等级徽章，代表与会者可以参加哪些活动。除此之外，论坛还有许多仅对高管或国家领导人开放的闭门会议，包括仅各国财政部长出席的世界经济领袖非正式会议（IGWEL）。比尔·盖茨等人将参加另外一个关于国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的闭门会议。 今年达沃斯论坛的与会者包括美国副总统乔·拜登和国务卿约翰·克里。习近平将在周二上午发表演讲——这是首次有中国现任国家主席出席该活动。其他与会的高管包括Facebook的谢丽尔·桑德伯格、通用汽车（GM）的CEO玛丽·巴拉和摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase）的CEO杰米·戴蒙。此外，达沃斯通常也不乏各界名人。今年，演员马特·达蒙和福里斯特·惠特克，以及歌手夏奇拉都会出席。 不过，白天将有大量活动在会议中心外进行，晚上在度假村周边的酒店会举办沙龙。 会议期间，与会者很有可能讨论下面三个话题。 唐纳德·特朗普 唐纳德·特朗普阵营与世界经济论坛组织者之间似乎天生只能是冷淡的关系。而会议组织者选择了负责任领导力作为主题，可能让双方的关系进一步恶化，将使特朗普遭到更多的批评。2009年，奥巴马上任第一年，达沃斯论坛的主题是“塑造危机后的世界”。特朗普新政府将只有一位成员出席大会：最近成为美国当选总统高级顾问的对冲基金经理安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇，他将在周二下午发表演讲。世界经济论坛组织者表示，在美国新旧政府交替时期，参加达沃斯的美国政界代表人数通常较少。 而这并不能阻止论坛讨论特朗普或正在变化的政治局势。周二下午，顾问伊恩·布雷默和保险公司威达信集团（Marsh & McLennan）CEO丹尼尔·格拉瑟，将参加主题为“政治风险时代的领导力”的专题讨论。周三的专题讨论“美国社会的巨大鸿沟”，嘉宾包括劳拉·德安德里亚·泰森（前比尔克林顿国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）负责人），主持人为《时代》杂志的迈克尔·达菲。 金融市场 今年，有关金融市场的讨论将让位于其他问题，因为多数全球领导者均不认为金融市场是明年的主要风险或威胁。但毕竟这是世界经济论坛，因此金融问题还是会得到一定关注，尤其是在特朗普政府执政期间的监管变化，以及在英国脱欧之后银行是否会也计划撤离伦敦等议题。关注度最高的专题讨论将在周四上午进行，嘉宾包括美国银行（Bank of America）CEO布莱恩·莫伊尼汉、摩根大通资产管理负责人及《财富》最具影响力的商界女性玛丽·欧朵思，以及英国渣打银行（Standard Chartered）CEO比尔·温特斯。另外会有一些有关能源市场的专题讨论，包括周四下午（瑞士时间）召开的讨论会，将会有沙特阿拉伯能源部长哈立德·埃尔·法利赫出席。 自动化 与去年的达沃斯论坛一样，自动化技术以及人工智能将取代更多工人的议题，将再次引发热议。周二下午，微软（Microsoft）的萨蒂亚·纳德拉和IBM的罗瑞兰，将参加有关人工智能商业机会的专题讨论。《财富》杂志的艾伦·穆雷将主持一场有关自动驾驶汽车和卡车如何改变生产力与汽车拥有概念的专题讨论。 译者：刘进龙/汪皓 |
Davos enjoys the calm before a storm of Thought Leadership and cocktail parties. The World Economic Forum might soon be receiving an early morning tweetstorm from Donald Trump. Often the theme of the annual gathering of CEOs, top academics, and world leaders—many of whom have traveled by private jet and then helicopter to Davos—which takes place this week, is overtaken by world events. The idea is that the peaks of the mountains that surround this remote Swiss ski town can keep such noise out, allowing leaders to come and discuss long-term solutions to the world's problems. But it never seems to work that way. Last year, for instance, participants of the annual confab were officially gathered to explore how technological change—namely automation—will alter the global economy, eliminate jobs, and increase inequality. But financial markets, which were going through a mini-crisis in late 2015 and early 2016, as well as a massive oil price drop, dominated much of the conversation. This year, though, WEF organizers – perhaps because for the first time in years the conference overlaps the U.S. inauguration – seemingly decided to take on world events more directly. The official theme of the forum, which draws world leaders and top Fortune 500 executives, is "responsive and responsible leadership." From a crowd and a conference that seems to lean heavily toward supporting globalism and free trade, one could see this year's theme as taking direct aim at not only Donald Trump, but also Nigel Farage and other British leaders who backed Brexit. One of first panels of the conference is how to tackle world problems in an era of fake news. Davos has long attracted criticism for being a gathering of an out-of-touch elite. But this year some commentators say the conference could actually be more relevant than usual, because the liberalists and globalizers who attend have to face up to the reality that they're losing the battle. WEF organizers say the picked the theme well before Trump won the U.S. election, but after British voters backed Brexit. The Davos conference kicks off with opening ceremonies on Monday night and concludes on Friday. Its official schedule of panel discussions and addresses from world leaders takes place in a centrally-located Congress Centre that is its hub. Not all the panel discussions are open to everyone and, befitting one of the year's most elite conferences, there is a hierarchy of badges that determines who can attend what. On top of that there are a number of closed-door sessions that are only open to top executives or heads of state, including one called IGWEL, which is only attended by finance ministers from various countries. Bill Gates and others will attend another closed-door meeting on the International Monetary Fund. Attending this year are Vice-President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry. Xi Jinping will be addressing attendees on Tuesday morning – the first time that a serving president of China has visited. Among the top executives who are attending the conference are Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg, GM's CEO Mary Barra, and J.P. Morgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon. Davos also typically draws its fair share of celebrities. This year, actors Matt Damon and Forest Whitaker will be attending, along with singer Shakira. But a good deal of the of the action takes place outside the conference center throughout the day and into the night in salons in hotels around the resort. Here are three topics that attendees are likely to be discussing and buzzing about, both in and around the conference. Donald Trump The relationship between Donald Trump's camp and WEF organizers seems set up to be naturally chilly. But the fact that conference organizers picked responsible leadership will probably cook things further, and set Trump up for more criticism. In 2009, Obama's first year in office the theme of the event was "Shaping the Post-Crisis World." Only one member of Trump's new administration is attending the conference: hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci, who recently took a job as a top advisor to the President-elect, is due to talk Tuesday afternoon. WEF organizers say it's typical to get a smaller delegation of U.S. politicians when there is an incoming administration. That doesn't stop the forum talking about Trump or the changing political landscape. On Tuesday afternoon, consultant Ian Bremmer and Daniel Glaser, CEO of insurance company Marsh & McLennan, will headline a panel titled, "Leadership in the Age of Political Risk." A panel on Wednesday titled "The Great American Divide," will feature Laura D'Andrea Tyson (formerly the head of Bill Clinton's National Economic Council) and be moderated by Time's Michael Duffy. Financial Markets Discussions about finance are somewhat taking a back seat this year to other issues, given that most global leaders don't see markets being a major risk or topic of concern in the next year. Nonetheless, this is the World Economic Forum after all, so finance issues will get some attention, especially on how regulations are likely to change during a Trump administration, and whether banks are planing to do their own exit from London following Brexit. The highest-wattage panel will take place on Thursday morning and features Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan and JPMorgan's head of asset management as well as Fortune Most Powerful Woman Mary Erdoes and Bill Winters, CEO of U.K. bank Standard Chartered. There will a number of panel discussions focusing on energy markets, including one on Thursday afternoon (Swiss time) featuring Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih. Automation Automation, and the idea that artificial intelligence will replace ever more workers, will again figure prominently, as it did at last year's Davos. On Tuesday afternoon, Microsoft's Satya Nadella and IBM's Ginni Rometty will be on a panel about AI business opportunities. Fortune's Alan Murray will moderate a panel discussion on how driverless cars and trucks will change productivity and the notion of ownership. |
