特朗普说过的话，该怎么把握？

商业领袖现在意识到，如果不提早预备可能会头疼，麻烦在于：候任总统唐纳德·特朗普说的话到底要不要认真对待。最新证据就是最近的新闻发布会上，特朗普大骂制药公司“都是逍遥法外的谋杀犯”。大选结果刚出来时制药公司股票曾经上扬，因为民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿一直对药企很不客气；大选期间，希拉里曾经指责制药行业“操纵价格”，相关股票应声下跌。但现在看起来特朗普比希拉里还极端，所以话音未落药企股票又跌了一阵。然而不管话怎说，他到底会怎么做呢？

类似的问题一次又一次地出现。最近高盛集团的首席经济学家在预测中直接断言，特朗普并不会将贸易保护主义论调坚持到底。其他多家大型银行预测的也差不多。但如果他真坚持下去了呢？毕竟这些承诺都是他竞选获胜的核心。他还一度表示未来八年内会永久消除联邦债务——不是每年的预算赤字，他说的可是总计高达13.6万亿美元的公共债务，同时承诺减税并提升军队预算。很显然，没有人相信他真能够做到，甚至可能都不会去试。但如果他真去尝试了呢？

看来商业领袖，投资者和其他人都得心中有数。如果你从事服务业、建筑业或农业，经营中会涉及移民，其中很多都是非法移民。特朗普会真如之前说的，一上任就立刻大举驱逐他们么？竞选期间他谈起已被拘禁的（并不一定已被指控或定罪）非法移民时是这么说的，“我上任第一天，那些人就得走。”他是说真的么？大选结果出来后他在视频中谈过上任百日的工作安排，根本没有提到这条，看起来并不是真的。但就任典礼还有几天，他改主意也不是没可能。

同样在新闻发布会上，特朗普又说起上任后很快会在墨西哥边境修筑围墙，还说“修墙的费用让墨西哥掏腰包。”之前毫无预兆，他突然冒出费用“有人报销”。没过几个小时，墨西哥总统培尼亚·涅托宣布，墨西哥“当然”不会为美国修墙付钱。此外，特朗普若真要动工，还得通过国会批准，到底能不能批准还很难说。但他说得言之凿凿，所以你觉得呢？

前总统乔治·W·布什曾经说过“听清楚了——不会加税”，扭头就提高了税率，这无异于判了政治死刑。他说的时候人们可都是当真了的。如果特朗普也来这么一招，你还会信他几分？

用金融术语来说，如今商业领袖每天都要多算一项：特朗普的话得打多少折扣？（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

Business leaders now realize, if they didn’t already, that they face an unusual problem: deciding how seriously to take what Donald Trump says. The latest evidence came at news conference recently, when he said pharmaceutical companies are “getting away with murder.” Recall that pharma stocks surged immediately after the election on the assumption that Hillary Clinton had been the anti-drug-company candidate; she had accused the industry of “price gouging” during the campaign, and drug stocks plunged. But now Trump sounds more extreme than Clinton, and those stocks plunged again recently. And yet – what, if anything, will he actually do?

The question comes up time and again. The latest economic forecast from Goldman Sachs’s chief economist simply assumes that Trump will not follow through on his protectionist campaign promises; most other major banks assume the same. Yet what if he does? Those promises were central to the success of his campaign, after all. At one point he said he would entirely eliminate the federal debt – not the annual budget deficit, but the whole $13.6-trillion of debt held by the public – in eight years while also cutting taxes and increasing the military budget. It appears absolutely no one believes he could do it or will even try. But what if he does try?

Business leaders, investors, and others must make these judgments. If you’re in the business of hospitality, construction, or agriculture, you depend on immigrants, many of whom are undocumented. Will Trump order mass deportations immediately upon taking office, as he has said? During the campaign he said of illegal immigrants who had been arrested (not necessarily charged or convicted), “Day one, my first hour in office, those people are gone.” Did he mean it? In a post-election video outlining his priorities for his first hundred days, he didn’t even mention it, suggesting not. But the inauguration is still some days away; he could change his mind.

Also at his news conference, Trump reiterated that construction of a wall on the Mexican border would begin very soon after inauguration and “Mexico will pay for the wall.” Not up front; the cost “will be reimbursed,” he said. Within hours, Mexican President Peña Nieto said that “of course” Mexico will not pay for any wall. In addition, Trump needs congressional authorization to begin construction, and it’s far from clear he could get it. Yet his statement was ironclad and unhedged. So what do you believe?

When President George H.W. Bush said “Read my lips – no new taxes” and then raised taxes, it was political death. People took his statements seriously. If Trump made a similar pledge, how much weight would you give it?

Expressed in financial terms, business leaders now have a new calculation to perform every day: how much of a discount to apply to Trump’s words.