1970年学说，惊人预知当今世界

毫无疑问，自作家、《财富》杂志撰稿人阿尔文·托弗勒在其1970年的畅销书中首次提出“未来冲击”这种说法后的47年以来，未来冲击，即太多关于迅速的变化，已经成为了人类世界最主要的社会力量。现在，没有人能够预知未来——托弗勒曾经悲观地预测称，人类社会无法应对这种冲击，但商界领袖最好勇于承担起由此所产生的问题，因为不论是否公平，人类社会都会让他们负起责任。

本周达沃斯公布的研究提供了最新的证据。公关公司爱德曼（Edelman）的年度信任度调查报告显示，相比之前五年的研究，公众对全球机构的信任突然大幅下降。更深入地探讨这个问题： 在全球总人口中，53%表示商业与工业的变化速度太快。他们担心失业——60%的人因为他们缺乏必要的培训或技能，这意味着他们的技能跟不上快速变化的工作要求，而54%的人则是担心自动化，两者其实代表了相同的原因。

普华永道（PwC）也在达沃斯论坛上公布了CEO调查结果，同样值得我们思考。虽然来自于世界各地的商业领袖们最担心的是增长不确定性和过度监管，但以微弱差距排在第三位的便是“关键技能的可用性”。CEO们与普通人有着相同的担忧——工作要求的变化速度，超出了人们满足要求的成立。结合该项调查，看一下我们对《财富》500强CEO的调查结果： 过去两年，CEO们最大的担忧是“快速的技术变革”。

所有人都在担忧相同的问题：太多变化，变化速度太快。

而很显然，解决这个问题的关键就是就业，所以商界领袖才会成为人们努力应对未来冲击时的目标。按照传统标准来看，这种现象非常奇怪。即便在美国，虽然失业率仅有最低的4.7%，但爱德曼调查的受访者中，依旧有57%的人认同“系统崩溃”的说法。这一比例高于全球平均水平。

而商界不能采取简单或显而易见的应对措施。公司不能单纯增加聘用一些他们不需要的人。不过，爱德曼的调查中也提出了其他有效的措施。例如，全球受访者尤其是认同“系统崩溃”的受访者认为，公司可以采取的建立信任的措施，排在首位的是“提高员工待遇”。

这对于商界领袖们而言，是一个关乎公司成败的问题。最近，IHS Markit的首席经济学家纳里曼·赫拉维希博士对《Business Insider》杂志称：“达沃斯精英们面临的挑战是，如何帮助发达国家的人们掌握从事新工作的技能，以及可以执行哪些政策。否则达沃斯论坛将变得毫无意义。这是达沃斯论坛的行动纲领。”（财富中文网）

作者：Geoff Colvin

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Future shock—too much change, too fast—has arguably become the predominant societal force in the world, 47 years after author (and Fortune writer) Alvin Toffler coined the term for the title of his 1970 bestseller. Now that it’s here, no one knows what happens next—Toffler predicted darkly that society wouldn’t be able to handle it—but business leaders had better take ownership of the resulting problems because, fairly or not, society is going to hold them responsible.

The latest evidence comes from research unveiled at Davos this week. The Edelman communications firm’s annual Trust Barometer showed public trust in institutions worldwide plummeting more precipitously than in the five previous years of the research. Now look deeper: Among general populations worldwide, 53% say the pace of change in business and industry is too fast. They worry about losing their jobs—60% because they lack needed training or skills, meaning their skills haven’t kept up with fast-changing job requirements, 54% because of automation, which means the same thing.

Now examine PwC’s new survey of CEOs, also announced at Davos. This global group of leaders is worried most about uncertain growth and over-regulation, but ranking a very close third is “availability of key skills.” The CEOs are worried about the same thing as ordinary citizens—that job requirements are changing faster than people’s ability to meet them. Combine that finding with the results of our own Fortune 500 CEO poll: The CEOs’ top concern for the past two years has been “the rapid pace of technological change.”

Everybody is saying the same thing: Too much change, too fast.

Clearly the practical crux of this issue is jobs, which is why business leaders are in the crosshairs as people struggle with future shock. By traditional standards the phenomenon is bizarre. Even in the U.S., with unemployment at a rock-bottom 4.7%, 57% of the population polled by Edelman agree that “the system is broken.” That’s higher than the global average.

Business’s response will not be simple or obvious. Companies can’t merely employ more people who aren’t needed. But the Edelman research suggests other effective steps. For example, among respondents globally, and especially among those who think the system is broken, the No. 1 action a company can take to build trust is “treat employees well.”

This is a make-or-break issue for business leaders. IHS Markit’s chief global economist, Dr. Nariman Behravesh, told Business Insider recently, “The challenge for the Davos elite is this—how can you help these people in the developed world to get the skills to take on new jobs, and what policies can be put in place? If they don't, Davos will become irrelevant. This is a call to action."