麦当劳推出新款巨无霸，但成效甚微

麦当劳近期宣布，旗舰产品巨无霸将推出最新款。跟之前换菜单差不多的是，这次也是为了试图提升1.4万家美国门店的销售。但不光是麦当劳，从近来快餐连锁店的例子来看，仅仅通过更新菜单提升销售数字或股价的可能性非常小。

最近，麦当劳公布了一季度财报，2015年3月史蒂夫·伊斯特布鲁克接任首席执行官以来，麦当劳一直在调整菜单。目前麦当劳的早餐全天供应，还推出了McPick超值2美元套餐，迅速解决了股问题息。2015年10月推出全天早餐不久，麦当劳当年四季报显示同店销售增长了5.7%，到2016年年初也一直保持良好势头。投资者们反响热情，股价从2015年8月的每股91美元推升至2016年5月的每股132美元，也是有史以来高点。

但兴奋之情并未持续多久，2016年二季度销售就没有达到分析师的预期。虽然三季报数字比预期强劲，但四季度数字并不会很好看。野村证券旗下电子交易平台Instinet调查了168个地区22家快餐连锁，问卷结果显示一年来同店销售额预计会下降1.2%。麦当劳的股价已从高点回落，近期的收盘价略高于每股122美元。

新款巨无霸面世后，最初可能会让喜欢尝新的消费者兴奋，提振销售收入。人们对新款好奇可能会变成股价走高。（虽然新鲜元素的吸引力可能没那么大：新款分为两种，样子都跟原来的巨无霸一样，尺寸小一些的叫Mac Jr.，尺寸大些的叫Grand Mac。）

但从其他快餐连锁店的例子看，新品带动销售可能持续不了多久。2012年塔可钟推出Doritos Locos tacos后大卖，仅第一年就卖出了10亿份。但到2014年销售额就再次回落。2010年肯德基在菜单里高调添加了双层炸鸡堡，头三个月就卖出了1000万份，但没过多久也销售疲软，最后只好下架。（塔可钟和肯德基都是百胜集团旗下品牌。）

其实对快餐连锁店来说，菜单一成不变问题并不严重，消费者日新月异的口味才是最大的风险。现在消费者更喜欢光顾“休闲快餐厅”，更强调高品质食材以及有特色的店内氛围，例如Shake Shack和Five Guys等。压力之下，快餐巨头们只好硬着头皮推出更新鲜、更健康的产品。

伊斯特布鲁克一直推动改进食品质量，吸引消费者回到麦当劳。目前麦当劳已经减少使用人工防腐剂，儿童餐里剔除了一些抗生素，面包里也不再使用高果糖玉米糖浆，还有其他一些改进举措。

不过种种调整是否真能吸引消费者走进麦当劳还是个未知数。由于今年去快餐厅消费的人流量预计会持平，对于十分清楚自己口味的消费者来说，菜单调整意义不是很大。

此外，麦当劳的股东还多了一重担心。本月早些时候，麦当劳宣布以17亿美元价格出售了中国大陆和香港业务的控股权。新合资公司里麦当劳股份占比20%，在目前2400家餐厅基础上，未来五年将开设1500家新店。伊斯特布鲁克解释该交易时强调，新的合作方非常强大，可以帮助麦当劳进一步深入中国市场。即便真是如此，麦当劳也牺牲了相当多一块未来收入。 （财富中文网）

译者：夏林

McDonald’s announced recently that it will begin offering modified versions of its flagship burger, the Big Mac. Like many previous menu changes at the Golden Arches, this one (which was first unveiled in November) comes as the company continues to try to drum up new sales across its 14,000 U.S. locations. But recent history, not just at McDonald's but at other fast-food chains, suggests that it's highly unlikely that such changes will have a lasting effect on either its sales figures or its stock.

The company, which report its quarterly earnings recently, has been trying to revamp its menu since Steve Easterbrook signed on as CEO in March 2015. Since then, McDonald’s has started serving breakfast all day and introduced the value menu McPick 2, moves that quickly paid dividends. Immediately after the launch of all-day breakfast in October 2015, the company posted a 5.7% increase in same-store sales for the fourth quarter of that year, a positive trend that continued on into early 2016. Investors took notice, bumping the stock price from $91 in late August 2015 to an all-time high of $132 in early May 2016.

But the excitement didn't endure, and sales for the second quarter of 2016 missed analysts’ expectations. Though McDonald’s posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter numbers, its coming earnings report may not be so great. In a recent survey conducted by Noruma-Instinet that polled 22 franchisees, accounting for 168 locations in all, same-store sales were estimated to be down by 1.2% year over year. The company’s share price (mcd) has dipped since its high; the stock closed recently at just over $122.

The debut of new Big Macs may bring some initial excitement and sales among consumers curious to try the new novelty. That curiosity could translate into a bump in the stock price. (Though the novelty factor may not be that high: The new variations are the Mac Jr., which is just like a Big Mac, except smaller, and the Grand Mac, which is bigger.)

But upticks in sales from new products tend to be short-lived, as other fast-food chains have found. Taco Bell introduced Doritos Locos tacos in 2012 to great success, with 1 billion of them sold in the first year alone. But by 2014, sales were waning again. KFC, which added the Double Down to its menu to much fanfare in 2010, sold 10 million of the sandwiches in its first three months, but discontinued it later on due to lagging sales. (Both Taco Bell and KFC are subsidiaries of Yum! Brands (yum).)

Stale menus may not be as big a threat to fast food chains as changing tastes are. More consumers have moved towards frequenting "fast casual restaurants" that boast higher-quality ingredients and a different in-store atmosphere, such as Shake Shack and Five Guys. In response, the fast food industry’s major players are all engaging in an arms race for fresher and healthier products.

Easterbrook has championed improvements in food quality in an effort to entice eaters back to McDonald’s. The company has cut the use of artificial preservatives, eliminated certain antibiotics from chicken products, and eliminated high fructose corn syrup from its buns, among several other changes.

Whether or not the changes in food quality will get more people to step inside a McDonald’s remains to be seen, though. Still, since total foot traffic to fast food restaurants is expected to remain relatively flat this year, all the changes may not end up making much of a difference to existing customers who know what they like.

McDonald's shareholders have one other issue to worry about. Earlier this month, McDonald’s announced it had struck a deal to sell a controlling stake in its China and Hong Kong operations to a Beijing-based company for $1.7 billion. The move leaves McDonald’s with a 20% share in the venture, which is expected to open 1,500 new locations over the next five years, on top of the 2,400 restaurants already there. Easterbrook rationalized the deal by stressing that the company’s new partners have unique knowledge that will allow for greater penetration into the market. While that may be true, McDonald’s has sacrificed a great deal of future revenue.