苹果能否让iPad起死回生？

2010年，当史蒂夫·乔布斯为热情的果粉推出了第一款iPad时，他把它称作一款“真正神奇和革命性的产品。”“它为你带来了有生以来最好的浏览体验。”

这种说法在2010年还是很靠谱的。当时智能手机的屏幕要比现在小很多（一般都是3.5英寸，而不像现在动辄就是五六寸的大屏）。当时的笔记本电脑也比现在重了不少，而且也没有触屏功能。虽然iPad一开始遭到了嘲笑，但它为几千万消费者引入了一个全新的平板电脑的概念。（严格地说，它并不是世界上的第一款平板电脑，但iPad让平板电脑这个概念真正流行了起来。）其他厂商也竞相跟风推出了类似的平板产品，但鲜有哪种竞品真正达到了iPad的高度。

但是七年后，iPad已经陷入了困境。当然，据研究公司IDC的最新估算，苹果仍然是全球最大的平板电脑出货商。但如果把平板电脑市场比作一个迅速蒸发的大湖，那么苹果只不过是湖里最大的一艘船。据IDC计算，2016年第四季度，全球平板电脑出货量下跌了20.1%。在最近一个季度，iPad的总出货量也骤降19%，iPad部门的营收更是下跌了22%。

至少在公开场合，苹果高管对iPad的前景还是很有信心的。苹果CEO蒂姆·库克在本周早些时候的收益电话会议上表示：“我对这种产品的前景还是非常乐观的。”会上，苹果高官们表示，存货水平的变化和零部件短缺是导致iPad销量疲软的原因之一。而iPhone的销量仍然十分火爆，这也减轻了iPad销量下滑带来的一些压力。

不过专家们表示，苹果还存在一个更大的问题：它没有给消费者一个具有吸引力的理由去购买iPad或是升级现有机型。这种产品虽然7年前看来是革命性的，但如今它已经成为夹在大屏手机和便捷笔记本电脑之间的一种颇为尴尬的产品。消费者可能会想，iPad买来后究竟能干什么用。

福雷斯特咨询公司副总裁、首席分析师J.P.刚德表示：“苹果必须搞清楚除了iPhone以外，未来的计算设备应该是什么样的。不管它是像平板电脑、Mac还是像某种混合产品，苹果都需要重新评估消费者想要什么。”

为了冲出平板市场的生存危机，苹果又推出了加强版的iPad Pro产品，作为笔记本电脑的替代品。iPad Pro搭载了速度更快的处理器和更大的屏幕，并且兼容手写笔和键盘等配件。iPad Pro虽然从硬件看与笔记本电脑有一拼，但它的软件却成了短板。因为大多数竞品笔记本电脑都能运行完全版的Windows程序，而iPad却只能运行移动应用。虽然微软和Adobe等软件商都针对iPad推出了瘦身产品，但它们在触屏上并没有在电脑上那样好用。

刚德表示：“比如说，在iOS上操作电子表格是很困难的。虽然你可以使用某个版本的Excel，但由于没有鼠标，操作起来非常有挑战性。”

有些果粉呼吁苹果公司生产一款能运行完全电脑程序的iPad，或者推出一款搭载触屏的MacBook。摩尔见解与战略公司（Moor Insights & Strategy）总裁兼首席分析师帕特里克·摩尔认为：“我认为，很多人想要的是一种像翻盖式笔记本电脑的触屏设备。”但已有多位苹果高管表示，这种事情是永远不会发生的。摩尔海德还提议将iPad Mini作为一款游戏设备进行推广。从任天堂的3DS手持游戏设备的成功来看，这倒未必是个坏主意。不过苹果在游戏领域向来不是一个严肃的玩家。

苹果还可以考虑另一个战术：让iPad降价。据IDC介绍，作为苹果旗下最贵的平板产品，售价599美元起的iPad Pro在2016年假日季期间只占了平板市场总出货量的很小一部分。苹果真正“走量”的产品是iPad Air 2和iPad mini。高德纳公司首席研究分析师北川美佳子认为：“如果苹果调低iPad的售价，我认为或许有助于提高销量。”当然降价也是要付出一定代价的。“苹果可能要牺牲一部分营收。”所以说，这招搞不好会弄巧成拙。

对于苹果来说，最好的方法莫过于再做一次苹果最擅长的事——让全世界相信，它将再次推出一个以往不存在的、真正革命性的东西。刚德认为：“苹果需要的是，是一种全新的、不同的产品，它能做的事情与以往有明显的区别，这才会让我真正想去购买它。”

如果传言属实，苹果的下一代iPad可能不会有什么突破性的创新。据彭博社报道，下一代iPad将搭配更出色的显示技术，另外苹果的手写笔系统也将有所改进。一向能精准预测苹果产品的KGI证券公司分析师郭明齐（音）表示，苹果公司或将推出一款新的10.5寸屏的iPad。这种小幅度的改进有可能带来销量的小幅上升，但要想让这个“病人”真正起死回升，看来还是不够的。（财富中文网）

作者：Lisa Eadicicco

译者：朴成奎

When Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPad to an enthusiastic crowd in 2010, he called it a “truly magical and revolutionary product.” “It’s the best browsing experience you’ve ever had,” said the late Apple CEO.

That statement made sense in 2010. Smartphones screens were significantly smaller (typically about 3.5 inches versus five or six inches today), while laptops were heavier and lacked touchscreens. Despite being mocked early on, the iPad introduced the entire concept of a tablet to millions of consumers. (It wasn’t the first “tablet,” but it popularized the category.) Other manufacturers raced to introduce similar devices, though few matched the iPad’s appeal.

But seven years later, the iPad is in trouble. True, Apple still makes the most tablet shipments in the world, according to the latest estimates from research firm IDC. But it’s the biggest ship in a quickly evaporating lake. Global tablet shipments fell by 20.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016, IDC says. Apple’s total iPad shipments dropped 19% in its most recent quarter, it announced Tuesday, while revenue from the devices is down 22%.

Apple executives remain confident about the iPad’s future, at least publicly. “I still feel very optimistic about where we can take the product,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook on the earnings call earlier this week. During that call, Apple executives argued that changes in inventory levels and component shortages are at least in part to blame for poor iPad sales. And the iPhone remains a hot seller, taking some pressure off the iPad.

But experts say there’s a bigger issue at play: Apple hasn’t given consumers a compelling reason to buy an iPad, or to upgrade their existing model. Whereas the device seemed revolutionary seven years ago, today it’s stuck somewhere between our embiggened smartphones and ultra-portable laptops. That could leave shoppers wondering what the iPad is actually for.

“It’s very important that [Apple] figures out what the future of computing looks like outside of the iPhone,” says J.P. Gownder, a vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. “Whether that looks like a tablet, a hybrid, or a Mac, it needs to reassess what it is its customers are looking for.”

In what may be an attempt to address the tablet market’s existential crisis, Apple has been marketing its souped-up iPad Pro lineup as a laptop replacement. The Pro models offer speedier processors, bigger screens and are compatible with Apple’s Pencil stylus and keyboard accessories. But in some ways, the iPad’s laptop-like qualities are hampered by its software. Whereas most rival devices run full-blown Windows programs, the iPad can only run mobile apps. Software makers like Microsoft and Adobe have released lightweight versions of their popular services for the iPad, but they’re not always as easy to use with a touchscreen as they’re desktop cousins.

“You can’t really do spreadsheets, for example, on iOS,” says Gownder. “You can use a version of Excel, but without a mouse it’s very challenging.”

Some Apple fans have been urging the company to make an iPad with full desktop software, or, conversely, a MacBook with a touchscreen. “I think people have spoken in that they want a touch device that operates like a clamshell type of notebook,” says Patrick Moorhead, president and principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy. But multiple Apple executives have said that will never happen. Moorhead also floated the idea of promoting the iPad Mini as a gaming device. That’s not necessarily a bad idea, given the success of Nintendo’s 3DS handheld gaming devices. But Apple has never been a serious player in the gaming world.

Another tactic Apple might consider: Making the iPad cheaper. The $599-and-up iPad Pro, Apple’s most expensive tablet line, only accounted for a small portion of overall tablet shipments in the 2016 holiday quarter, according to IDC. The cheaper iPad Air 2 and mini tablets were responsible for most of Apple’s shipments. “If Apple lowers the price of its iPads, I think it might increase the volume,” says Mikako Kitagawa, a principal research analyst at Gartner. Of course, Kitagawa says there’s a catch: “It would have to sacrifice revenue.” So depending on how the math shakes out, that could be self-defeating.

The best approach may be for Apple to once again pull its trademark trick: Convincing the world it wants something revolutionary that didn’t exist yesterday. “What is needed is something new and fresh and different,” says Gownder. “Something where you say this is doing something distinctly different from what it did before that would make me actually want to buy it.”

But if the rumor mill is to be believed, Apple’s next iPads will be less than groundbreaking. Bloomberg reports the next models will have better display technology, along with improvements to Apple’s stylus accessory, the Apple Pencil. KGI Securities Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, often an accurate seer when it comes to the difficult-to-read Apple, says the company may launch a new 10.5-inch iPad. Those kind of minor tweaks could result in accordingly minor sales bumps. But it’s unlikely they will be enough to fully resurrect this particular patient.