可以替代键盘鼠标的新技术，快来了解下

我刚开始工作的时候，键盘是唯一的用户交互工具。早期电脑例如苹果二代机和最早的IBM个人电脑上都只有键盘。1984年，苹果推出的麦金塔电脑采用了图形用户界面，从此鼠标为大众熟知，一种全新的与电脑交互方式就此诞生。

我们这种老用户适应电子桌面和鼠标是要花点时间的，但到最后也都慢慢习惯了。现在几乎所有的电子设备都采用了图形用户界面，要么用鼠标，要么用手写笔，也有些用手指当输入设备。（亚马逊的Echo之类有语音助手的设备不算在内。）

但经历了超过三十年的鼠标键盘时代后，如今我们在用户界面上迎来了另一重要突破：虚拟现实和增强现实。两者有望在未来10-15年成为主流的计算机交互方式，推动改革中硬件和软件创新。

不过，变革不可能一蹴而就。近来《财富》有篇文章就谈到了虚拟现实头盔的应用周期：

“虽然新款索尼游戏机虚拟现实眼镜，微软的HoloLens，诺兰·布什纳尔的新款虚拟现实设备引发的讨论热闹非凡，但过去一年里只有6%的美国人真正拥有虚拟现实设备。

根据战略分析公司研究，到今年年底，约1140万美国人会花钱购买虚拟现实设备，除了之前提到的品牌，其他选择还包括谷歌的Cardboard或HTC的Vive等等。

这是个很好的开始，可以顺利向大众推介虚拟现实和增强现实技术。不过现实中人们并不喜欢戴着眼镜与电脑互动。有现成的例子，看谷歌眼镜的起起伏伏，以及戴3D眼镜才能观看的电视受欢迎程度就知道了。所以新技术走向主流还需要时间。而且我相信，大多数人都会通过移动设备首次体验虚拟现实和增强现实，现在市场上有不少价格低廉的智能手机配套头盔，类似三星的Gear VR以及谷歌的Daydream View。

所有业内大公司都在花大力气研究虚拟现实或增强现实，还有些双管齐下。Facebook旗下有虚拟现实公司Oculus，索尼最近推出了游戏机配套的虚拟现实眼镜，微软有HoloLens等等，不一而足。但我认为增强现实走向大众最终还得靠苹果。虽然苹果在虚拟现实和增强现实方面的策略一直秘而不宣，但首席执行官蒂姆·库克已多次透露对增强现实的兴趣，暗示下一代iPhone上就会应用，没准今年秋天就能看到。

的确，苹果在虚拟现实和增强现实产品方面动作稍显迟缓，不过苹果向来不喜欢冲在市场前面，而是让同行用新产品先试水，然后推出体验更好的产品。苹果曾是图形用户界面和鼠标的先驱，如果能成功推动下一代计算机交互方式走向大众，也会很有历史意义。此外，如果苹果做好增强现实，也可以借此提升销售，满足公司不断增长的需求。

话说回来，继续用键盘鼠标也谈不上错。但将交互水平提升个档次，没准能以全新方式使用电脑。基于虚拟现实和增强现实的计算机技术是用户交互设计的下一步，很快就会改变每个人的生活和工作方式。（财富中文网）

作者：Tim Bajarin

译者：Charlie

蒂姆·巴扎林是科技行业顶尖顾问、分析师和未来主义者之一，主要关注领域为个人电脑和消费科技。巴扎林1981年加入Creative Strategies至今，现担任公司总裁。他曾任行业顾问，向业内顶尖的硬件软件公司提供分析报告。

For the early part of my technology career, keyboards were the only user interface available. Even with early machines like the Apple II and the first IBM PCs, it was keyboards-only. But in 1984, Apple’s Macintosh introduced the graphical user interface and mouse to a wide audience, and a whole new way to interact with a computer was born.

Us old-timers took a while to get the hang of digital desktops and mice. But eventually, using them became second nature. Today, pretty much all of our computing devices use some form of graphical user interface with either a mouse, a stylus, or a user’s finger as an input device. (Voice-activated gadgets like the Amazon Echo aside.)

But after over three decades of mouse-and-keyboard computing, we’re on the precipice of the next major advancement in user interfaces: Virtual and augmented reality, or VR and AR. Taken together, VR and AR are on track to become the dominant method of computer interaction within the next 10-15 years, driving all kinds of new hardware and software innovations.

However, this change will not happen overnight. A recent Fortune article looked at the adoption cycle of just VR headsets:

“For all the hype around the new Sony (sne) PlayStation VR, Microsoft (msft) HoloLens, or Nolan Bushnell’s new Modal VR gear, just 6% of Americans will own any of these devices this year.

According to Strategy Analytics research, roughly 11.4 million American adults will pony up for one of the aforementioned devices—or a Google (goog) Cardboard or HTC Vive among other gizmos—by year’s end.

This is a good start, serving as a way to introduce VR and AR to the masses in a comfortable way. Still, the reality is that most people will not want to use goggles or glasses to interact with a computing device — for proof, just look at the rise and fall of Google Glass or glasses-mandatory 3D TV. So it’ll take time for these technologies to go mainstream. Also, I believe that most people will have their first experiences with VR and AR on a mobile device, thanks to the affordable entry-level, smartphone-powered headsets proliferating in the marketplace, like Samsung’s Gear VR and Google’s Daydream View.

Every major technology firm is working on some form of VR, AR, or both. Facebook (fb) owns VR firm Oculus, Sony recently introduced the PlayStation VR, Microsoft has its HoloLens, and so on. But I believe it will be Apple (aapl) that will bring AR, at least, to the masses. While the company has been largely hush-hush about its VR and AR plans, CEO Tim Cook has said multiple times now that he’s interest in AR, a sign that the technology might arrive in some form with the next iPhone, possibly as soon as this fall.

To be sure, Apple has been slow to bring a VR or AR product to market — but Apple is rarely first to market, instead preferring to let others experiment with new product categories before it introduces a more refined take. It would also be a nice historical note if Apple, the company that popularized the graphical user interface and mouse, brought the next major form of computer interaction mainstream. Additionally, if Apple got AR right, it could help provide the sales boost the company increasingly needs.

As it stands, there’s nothing necessarily wrong with using a keyboard and mouse to interact with a computer. But kicking that interaction up a notch could unlock completely unpredictable new ways of being productive with a computer. AR and VR-based computing represents the next evolution in user interface design, and will be changing our personal and work lives very soon.