“奥马哈先知”收购苹果股票，此举真的划算吗？

近来，“股神”巴菲特大幅增持苹果股票的决定令整个投资界大感意外。因为几十年来，这位“奥马哈先知”收购的股票主要是在他看来最优秀的蓝筹银行股，以及一些优秀的消费性品牌，比如富国银行、可口可乐和卡夫亨氏等等，对波动性较大的科技股则一向敬而远之。

在大多数分析师和权威人士看来，巴菲特在苹果身上投入巨注其实是很好解释的。很多分析人士认为，增持苹果股票恰恰是巴菲特投资哲学的体现，因为它是一支货真价实的价值股，具备很强的收益能力，而且价位也相当划算。

但收购苹果股票真的是巴菲特的一招好棋吗？要想知道答案，首先让我们来深入分析一些相关数据。

巴菲特是从2016年上半年开始逐步囤积苹果股票的，真正的大规模购入则是从去年第四季度开始，他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦控股公司当季将持有的苹果股票扩仓三倍，达到5,740万股，使苹果股票成为伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的第十大投资。虽然我们还不清楚伯克希尔-哈撒韦在第四季度究竟花了多少钱用于收购苹果股票，但巴菲特还是展示了他对时机的精准把握：从去年9月30日至今，苹果的股价已经飙升了19.5%，首次创纪录地突破了36美元，市值猛增了1,150亿美元，达到7,100亿美元。光是这段时间吸入的1,150亿美元资金，就已经相当于美国四大航空公司美国航空、联合大陆航空、达美航空和西南航空的总和——这四大航空公司的股票也是巴菲特近来非常青睐的。

巴菲特之所以对苹果股票青眼有加，或许是因为苹果已经从一只增长型股票变成了一只价值型股票，也就是说你每掏1美元购买它的股份，都能获得丰厚的收益。从2016年1月1日到12月31日（苹果内部的2016财年截止到9月结束），苹果的盈利为451亿美元。它的市盈率是比较适中的15.7倍，远低于标普20多倍的平均值。而且在2016年上半年至年中，也就是巴菲特刚刚开始收购苹果股票时，苹果的市盈率比这还要低得多，仅在11倍左右。

但近几年，苹果公司的盈利水平并未明显增长。早在2012自然年度，苹果的盈利就达到了417亿美元，也就是说，从2012年到2016年，苹果的年利润增长率仅有2%，勉强与通胀率持平。从2015到2016自然年度，苹果的利润水平甚至下降了16个百分点。可以说苹果基本已经承认它目前没有什么新的领域可以投资了。2016财年，苹果将超过100%的利润用于分红和回购，而不是深耕工厂和产品以促进未来的增长。

考虑到苹果近几年的表现乏善可陈，未来的增长前景也不高，苹果的低市盈率也就不足为怪了。从它当前的市盈率反向推算，它的净收益率约为6.4%，这也就是投资者们可以预期的投资回报率。你可以把这个比率看作一张债券的利息收益，只不过还要根据通胀进行调整。因为苹果的股价至少还是会随CPI同步增长的。

对该数字进行调整后，你的预期回报率就是8.4%。

那么，这个回报率对苹果来说现实吗？很难说。目前苹果的股息率约为1.7%，这也是它的预期回报率的一部分，而预期回报率的其余部分则来自利润的增长，还有很小的部分来自于通胀，这两者总共占了6.7%。如果未来六年里，苹果的利润真的能以6.7%的速度增长，那么到2023年年初，苹果的利润将从上一财年不到460亿美元的基础上增长至660亿美元。但你要记住，近来苹果的利润实际上是在下降的。

此外还有两个问题。首先：即便苹果真的能够达到7%的利润增长率，也就是说明年苹果的利润将增长30亿美元，并且到2023年之前，平均每年增长约50亿美元，那么投资者也仅仅将获得8.4%的回报率。这远远低于巴菲特一般持有的股票动辄两位数百分比的回报率。

其次，苹果基本上是一个靠着一款产品打天下的公司，而且其所在市场的竞争十分激烈。公司的销售额有三分之二来自于iPhone，而2016财年，iPhone的销量足足下跌了12%。

近来苹果股价的强势上涨，主要是由于即将于今年下半年推出的新iPhone给投资者带来的信心。不过我们并不清楚苹果的实验室里还在研究哪些其它产品。以苹果的规模，单靠一款新iPhone，是不太可能推动利润达到7%以上的。随着亚马逊和谷歌等企业纷纷进军个人AI和智能家居领域，苹果可以腾挪的空间也将被日益挤压。

苹果还可以采用另一种方法，不再追求研发另一种能够改变游戏格局的产品，而是将所有现金反馈给投资者——比如通过大规模股票回购等方式。但这种方法同样也不能解决问题。即便是苹果这样超级土豪的公司，既要达到投资者的预期收益，又想继续保障公司的增长，它的现金也是达不到的。

最近，巴菲特多年的合作伙伴、伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司副董事长查理•芒格面对媒体和投资界的普遍质疑表示：“我们收购苹果和几家航空公司股票的消息近来受到了媒体的关注。我并不认为这是我们疯了，而是我们为适应愈加困难的业务而做出的调整。”他表示，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司不再像过去那样一味收购高回报的股票，“现在我们也会争取一些小的优势。”

总之，收购苹果股票是一个很有风险的赌注。其股价的大涨、庞大的市值，加上不太明朗的增长前景，预示着它的利润不会有太多增长空间。巴菲特和芒格通过此次收购苹果股票已经大赚了这一笔，这充分证明“股神”二字的确名下无虚。问题是从今往后，苹果股票是否还值得继续持有。

但对于投资者来说，更大的问题是：即便是像苹果这样一支缺乏吸引力且价格已经很高的股票，只要“股神”认为他值得购买，整个投资界就会坚定不移地跟着买。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Warren Buffett just astounded the investment world by welcoming Apple into his exclusive club of favored stocks. For decades, the Oracle of Omaha has stuck mainly to what he knows best, blue-chip banks and great consumer brands such as Wells Fargo, Coca-Cola, and Kraft Heinz, and mainly shunned the churning, science-driven field of technology.

According to most analysts and pundits, Buffett's enormous bet on Apple makes perfect sense. Apple, they argue, is the epitome of what he covets, a deep value stock offering strong earnings power at a bargain price.

But does Apple really fit the Buffett profile? To find out, let's take a deep dive into the numbers.

Buffett began accumulating Apple shares in early 2016. The gigantic purchases, however, came in the fourth quarter of last year, when his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, more than tripled its stake to 57.4 million shares, making Apple one of Berkshire's top ten investments. Although the exact prices Berkshire paid in the fourth quarter are unknown, Buffett displayed quicksilver timing: Apple's shares have surged 19.5% since Sept. 30 to a record price of over $36, lifting its market cap to $710 billion, an increase of $115 billion. That gain alone equals the total market value of America's four major airlines, American Airlines, United Continental, Delta and Southwest, all of which Buffett has also been eagerly buying of late.

Buffett may like Apple because it's clearly evolved from a growth play into a value stock, meaning that for every dollar you pay for its shares, you get a rich helping of earnings. For the four quarters ended Dec. 31 (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), Apple posted $45.1 billion in earnings. So its price-to-earnings ratio is a modest 15.7, well below the S&P average of well over 20. Keep in mind that Apple's P/E was a lot lower, as low as 11 in fact, during the period when Buffett was first buying it in early-to-mid-2016.

Apple's earnings, however, aren't growing. It made $41.7 billion in calendar 2012, meaning that profits have waxed just 2% a year since then, matching inflation. And its profits actually fell 16% from calendar 2015 to 2016. Apple is essentially acknowledging that it doesn't have new places to invest. For fiscal 2016, it paid out over 100% of its profits in dividends and buybacks rather than plowing billions into plants and products to drive future growth.

Given its plodding record, and low prospects, for future growth, Apple probably deserves its low multiple. Its current P/E translates to an earnings yield—the inverse of the P/E—of 6.4%. That's how much investors are expecting Apple to pay them each year. Think of that return like the interest payment on a bond, except adjusted for inflation, since Apple's prices will rise at least with the CPI.

Adjusted the number for, and you have an expected return of 8.4%.

Is that expected return realistic for the iPhone maker. Not quite. Apple has a dividend yield of 1.7%. That's part of its expected return. The rest has to come from earnings increases, and a little bit from inflation, for a total of 6.7%. If Apple's profits do expand at 6.7% for the next six years, it will boast profits of $66 billion at the start of 2023, up from nearly $46 billion in its last fiscal year. Remember, Apple's earnings have been falling lately.

The first problem: Even if it manages to hike profits almost 7% a year, and that means adding $3 billion next year, and almost $5 billion annually by around 2023, investors will only get a 8.4% return. That's far from the double-digit gains Buffett usually pockets.

Second, Apple is essentially a one-product company in a highly competitive market. Almost two-thirds of its sales flow from the iPhone, and sales of the smartphone dropped 12% in fiscal 2016.

Indeed, part of the excitement around Apple's stock is the new iPhone that will be out later this year. But it's unclear what other products are rising in Apple's labs. Given Apple's size, new iPhones alone are not likely to boost profits in the 7% range going forward. And with Amazon and Google moving into the personal AI technology and smart home space, that's leaving Apple less room to maneuver.

Apple could go the other way, and stop looking for the next big thing and just start returning all its cash to investors, likely in the form of big buy backs. But that's not going to solve the problem, either. There's not enough of it to meet investors expected return, and continue to fund Apple's growth.

Recently, Buffett's longtime partner Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger acknowledged the widespread doubts expressed in the media and investment community. "We appear in the press with Apple and a bunch of airlines. I don't think we've gone crazy," declared Munger. "We're adapting to a business that has gotten more difficult." Instead of pocketing big, easy returns as in the past, he says, "Now we get little edges."

All told, Apple is a risky bet. Its big surge in price, gigantic market cap, and less than stellar outlook for growth indeed leave little margin for gain. Buffett and Munger deserve kudos for making lots of money on Apple. The issue is whether it's worth owning from here on.

But the the bigger problem for investors is this: The investment world has gotten really, really tough if a stock with Apple's singular lack of appeal, especially at these prices, looks like a buy to the world's most fabled investor.