电动汽车发展，中欧远超美国

许多汽车行业的业内人士认为，2017年，电动汽车将获得重要的发展动力，并且不只限于北美市场。

在1月底特律举行的一年一度的车展上，一位汽车行业高管表示，中国与欧洲日益严格的排放规定，使得全球汽车厂商和消费者除了插电式汽车之外没有太多选择，因此刺激了投资的迅速增长。

汽车零部件供应商法雷奥（Valeo）的首席执行官雅克·阿申布瓦表示：“汽车电动化是不可逆转的趋势”。法雷奥过去五年内的销售额增长了50%，公司致力于电动汽车、混合动力车、联网汽车和自动驾驶汽车。

在欧洲，环保汽车可以获得日益提高的补贴、减税和其他福利，而内燃机汽车则要面临越来越多的障碍，包括驾驶与停车限制。

而中国的大城市正面临灾难性的污染，因此中国也在积极推广电动汽车。中国的“胡萝卜加大棒”政策，包括数百亿的投资和研发资金与补贴，以及控制大城市化石燃料汽车驾驶的监管措施。

但在美国，电动汽车未来的发展道路可能会面临更多阻碍。

加州和其他多个州的监管部门正在率先推广提高电动汽车或“零排放”车辆配额的州级规定。

但2015年，美国的插电式汽车注册量有所下降，在2016年，纯电动汽车的市场份额进一步减少至0.37%，因为廉价的燃料价格，推动了对高油耗运动型多用途车辆和皮卡卡车的需求。

美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺将降低环境与气候规定。即使在奥巴马政府于1月使至2025年的燃油经济性目标正式生效之前，为传统汽车厂商代言的团体，还要求特朗普重新审议这些目标。

此外，汽车厂商还要求特朗普颁布一套全国性的温室气体排放治理规定，这将引发对加州和其他州电动汽车配额的法律挑战，因为这些配额代表了单独的标准。

参加底特律车展的汽车行业高管认为，美国电动汽车增长失速，不会缓解电动汽车上市销售的压力，因为中国与欧洲正在稳步推行扩大电动汽车销售的政策。

所以，福特汽车（Ford）首席执行官马克·菲尔兹在1月早些时候表示，福特正是基于这一原因，才会继续推动之前宣布的计划，到2020年之前投入45亿美元开发插电式汽车。

菲尔兹表示：“汽车行业正在发生变化，各地已经开始兴建基础设施，所以我们才会认为，未来15年，电气化汽车的数量将超过汽油驱动汽车。”同时，他宣布福特将在密歇根州福兰特洛克投资7亿美元，用于生产电池驱动SUV和其他插电式汽车。

行业高管表示，为了推动向电动汽车的转变，他们需要来自政府的更多帮助。

在中国、欧洲和美国，汽车厂商正在呼吁将更多的新基础设施资金，用于建设公共电动汽车充电网络。

美国的电动汽车厂商呼吁政府为购买纯电动汽车的消费者，继续提供7,500美元联邦税收减免。即便特朗普计划取消该项补贴，但国会采取行动将需要一些时间。

加州空气资源委员会（California Air Resources Board）主席玛丽·尼克尔斯在车展场外表示：“全世界正在向电气化转变，这一点没有异议。”她指出，目前所有汽车厂商均在投资研发全部产品线的电动型号。她表示，争议的焦点在于“时机，而不是目标。”

中国的电动汽车市场给底特律车展蒙上了一层阴影，从汽车制造商在此次展会上展出的插电式混合动力车和电动汽车来看，将来在美国市场可能很难有所作为。

IHS Automotive预测，到2019年，中国插电式汽车的出货量将达到100万辆，比美国提前四年实现这一目标。中国在2015年的汽车销量大幅增长四倍，去年增长了55%，总销量达到348,000辆，而美国为138,000辆。

雷诺-日产（Renault-Nissan）低成本插电式汽车开发部门负责人杰拉德·迪托拜特最近表示：“电动汽车的未来在中国，而不是美国。两国最大的不同在于——中国不得不采取行动。” （财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Electric cars will pick up critical momentum in 2017, many in the auto industry believe—just not in North America.

Tighter emissions rules in China and Europe leave global carmakers and some consumers with little choice but to embrace plug-in vehicles, fueling an investment surge, said industry executives gathered in Detroit January for the city's annual auto show.

"Car electrification is an irreversible trend," said Jacques Aschenbroich, chief executive of auto supplier Valeo, which has expanded sales by 50% in five years with a focus on electric, hybrid, connected and self-driving cars.

In Europe, green cars benefit increasingly from subsidies, tax breaks and other perks, while combustion engines face mounting penalties including driving and parking restrictions.

China, struggling with catastrophic pollution levels in major cities, is aggressively pushing plug-in vehicles. Its carrot-and-stick approach combines tens of billions in investment and research funding with subsidies, and regulations designed to discourage driving fossil-fueled cars in big cities.

The road ahead for electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States, however, could have more hairpin curves.

Regulators in California and a group of other U.S. states are pushing ahead with state-level rules mandating rising quotas for electric, or "zero emission" vehicles.

But plug-in registrations in the United States fell in 2015, and the market share of electric-only vehicles declined further to 0.37% in 2016, as cheap fuel drove demand for gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to roll back environmental and climate rules. Groups representing established automakers asked Trump to review Obama administration fuel economy targets out to 2025, even before the outgoing administration formally signed them into effect at January.

Automakers have also asked Trump to work toward a single, national set of rules to govern automotive greenhouse gas emissions, a move that could spark legal challenges to electric car quotas in California and other states on grounds they present a separate standard.

Still, industry executives in Detroit said hitting the brakes on electric vehicles in the United States would not relieve the pressure to bring them to market, because China and Europe are forging ahead with policies to expand sales of plug-in cars.

That is why Ford is moving forward with previously announced plans to invest $4.5 billion for plug-in vehicles by 2020, Chief Executive Mark Fields said earlier January.

"The industry is changing, the infrastructure's starting to build, and that's why our view is (that) within the next 15 years we'll see more electrified offerings  than we'll see gasoline-powered," Fields said as he unveiled a $700 million plan to build a battery SUV and other plug-in vehicles in Flat Rock, Michigan.

To drive the shift to electric, industry executives said they needed more help from governments.

In China, Europe and the United States, automakers are advocating new infrastructure money go to public electric car charging networks.

In the United States, EV manufacturers are pushing for the continuation of a $7,500 federal tax subsidy for consumers who buy a fully electric car. Even if Trump were to try to eliminate it, it would take time as Congress would have to act.

"There is not a disagreement that the world is going electric," California Air Resources Board Chair Mary Nichols said on the sidelines of the auto show, noting that all vehicle makers were now investing in electric models across their entire product lines. The debate, she said, was "over timing, not the goal."

The Chinese electric car market cast its shadow over the Detroit auto show, where manufacturers showed off plug-in hybrid and electric models that will likely do scant business in the United States.

IHS Automotive predicts Chinese plug-in deliveries will hit 1 million in 2019, four years before the United States. China pulled ahead in 2015 with a fourfold sales surge before adding 55 percent last year to 348,000 vehicles, with the United States at 138,000.

"Look to China rather than the U.S. for the future of electric cars," Gerard Detourbet, a Renault-Nissan executive leading low-cost plug-in development, said recently. "China is compelled to act - that's the main difference."