人工智能，是时候认真看待了

判断对于某个科技潮流的炒作是否已经达到顶峰，方法很简单。只需问问这几个问题：那些最著名的风险投资家是否正在抱怨估值问题？大型科技公司是否在初创公司早期甚至还不算真正的公司时就开始收购它们？《财富》500强公司的高管会讨论潮流相关的战略吗？如果以上的答案是肯定的，那么恭喜你！你发现了一个潮流。小部分幸运的先行者将会借此获得无尽的财富。而当我们剩下的人有所察觉时，已经太晚了。

接下来，我们可以看看当今的流行趋势：人工智能。美国的风险投资家正在反复念叨着“人工智能就是新时代的手机”。中国互联网服务公司百度的首席科学家吴恩达则将人工智能的影响力比作“新时代的电”。不过，科技界的思想领袖越是大力宣扬某些潮流，它就越可能销声匿迹。（例如，每日特惠是“商业的未来”；SoLoMo——社交、本地、移动是“营销的未来”；按需服务是“工作的未来”；聊天机器人Chatbot是“客户服务的未来”。）

然而，内行人士仍然在人工智能的初创公司上不断下注。CB Insights的数据显示，去年，风投公司对658家公司投资了50亿美元，同比增加61%。收购方也干劲十足。去年，至少有40家人工智能初创公司被收购，买方主要是大型科技公司，这一趋势预计还将在2017年继续。谷歌（Google）的企业发展主管唐•哈里森将并购人工智能公司看作头等大事。他表示钱不是问题：“我们绝对以人工智能为先。我们会关注（估值），但没有必要担心它。”

人工智能往往缺乏明确的商业案例，但这也没有关系。Salesforce负责企业发展的执行副总裁约翰•绍莫尔尧伊表示：“他们还不是公司。这些（交易）主要关乎技术和人才。”

多年前，我们对亏损的移动初创公司的估值表示过惊讶，也嘲笑过一些公司商业模式的匮乏，例如谷歌在2005年以大约5,000万美元买下的安卓（Android）。但情况变了：如今我们希望每家公司都有移动战略，因为这个大前提已经毋庸置疑了。与此同时，安卓成为了全球最流行的移动操作系统。

未来几年内，人工智能会成为主流吗？它是类似于SoLoMo的一时狂热，还是类似手机的革命性技术？如果公司和投资者认为是后者，他们就应该向这项技术倾注资金。未来五年内，人工智能可能会成为各个行业客户服务、营销、产品开发、销售等一切业务流程中存在的功能。届时，我们就会明白，那些幸运的先行者们并不只是借机致富，他们实际上是在塑造未来。

本文印刷版见于《财富》2017年3月1日刊。

译者：严匡正

There’s an easy way to tell when the hype around a technology trend has peaked. Ask yourself the following: Are the smartest venture capitalists complaining about valuations? Are big tech companies snapping up startups so young they can barely be considered real businesses? Are Fortune 500 executives talking about their [insert trend here] strategy? If the answer to any of these questions is yes, congratulations! You’ve identified a fad. A small, lucky handful of early movers will ride it to untold riches. By the time the rest of us find out about the phenomenon, it’s too late.

Consider, then, today’s hot trend: Artificial intelligence. Venture capitalists across the country are parroting the phrase “AI is the new mobile.” Andrew Ng, chief scientist of Baidu, the Chinese Internet services company, declared that AI is “the new electricity.” The more intensely tech thought leaders proclaim that a trend is here to stay, the more rapidly it tends to vanish. (Daily deals were “the future of commerce.” SoLoMo—social, local, mobile—was “the future of marketing.” On-demand services were “the future of work.” Chatbots were “the future of customer service.”)

And yet the smart money continues its embrace of AI startups. Last year VCs invested $5 billion in 658 companies, a 61% increase over the year prior, according to CB Insights. Acquirers are getting aggressive too. Last year corporations, mostly big tech companies, bought at least 40 AI startups, a trend that’s expected to continue in 2017. Identifying AI acquisitions is a top priority for Don Harrison, head of corporate development at Google. “We’re definitely AI-first,” he says, noting that price is not a sticking point. “We pay attention to [valuation] but don’t necessarily worry about it.”

The fact that AI often lacks a clear business case doesn’t matter. “These are not businesses,” says John Somorjai, executive vice president of corporate development at Salesforce, which has acquired a handful of AI companies. “These [deals] are about technology and talent.”

Years ago we marveled at the valuations of money-losing mobile startups and snickered at the lack of a business model at companies like Android, which Google bought in 2005 for around $50 million. Things have changed: Today we expect every company to have a mobile strategy because the very premise is a given. Meanwhile Android is the most popular mobile operating system in the world.

Will artificial intelligence be a given in the years to come? Is AI a short-lived fad on par with SoLoMo—or a revolution like mobile? If companies and investors believe the latter, they should be pouring money into the technology. In five years artificial intelligence could exist as a layer of capability atop every business process, from customer service and marketing to product development and sales, across every industry. And then it will be clear that the lucky early movers weren’t just riding a fad to riches—they were shaping the future.

A version of this article appears in the March 1, 2017 issue of Fortune.