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致股东年度信，选股大师巴菲特告诉你这件事

Stephen Gandel 2017-03-01

在最近发布的致股东年度信里，这位“奥马哈先知”想让人们知道，他并不是永久持有型投资者，他不仅会买股票，也会卖股票，从而获得丰厚回报。

世界上最著名的选股大师沃伦·巴菲特想让所有人都知道他也卖股票。

作为伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司首席执行官，巴菲特在上周六公布的致股东年度信件中表示，人们对他的投资方法一直有些误解。为了消除误会，他甚至在1983年以来信中几乎没有变过的一段话上加了一句。

不过，任何追踪巴菲特今年动向的人都应该知道他会卖股票，或者说最近已经这么做了。去年，伯克希尔-哈撒韦抛售了美国电话电报公司、约翰迪尔和宝洁的股份，价值超过十亿美元。但巴菲特最高调的售股对象当属沃尔玛。伯克希尔对沃尔玛的投资始于2005年，而2016年它几乎将这家零售巨擘的股份抛售一空。

这些卖出交易让伯克希尔的证券投资出现了重大调整。在伯克希尔持股规模最大的15家公司中，最近一年内买进的有4家。而前年伯克希尔的15大投资对象中还没有新近持有的个股。

最大持股对象几乎不变让一些人断言巴菲特是永久持有型投资者。巴菲特说情况并非如此，而且拿出了证据。在今年的股东信中，巴菲特表示有些个股他不打算很快卖出，但这并不是一项承诺。他说伯克希尔随时都可能卖出手中的任何股票。那个几乎一直不变的段落描述的是巴菲特的投资哲学，这次他在上面加了一句话，以澄清自己的做法。

巴菲特没有对沃尔玛发表直接评论，也没有提及去年大规模购买的股票，其中包括最受媒体关注的一只，就是斥资67亿美元买入的苹果公司。这笔投资至少已经赚了4亿美元。在去年伯克希尔的新增主要投资对象中，苹果的股份占了一半。在该公司持有的15大个股中，另外三只新股都是航空股，分别为达美航空、西南航空和联合大陆航空。伯克希尔还向第四家航空公司——美国航空投入逾10亿美元资金，但后者的排名刚好在15大个股以外。一年前巴菲特手中还没有任何航空股。

伯克希尔-哈撒韦持有的股票并非都由巴菲特挑选。同时，巴菲特正在把越来越多的投资决策权交给最近聘请的两个人——托德·康姆斯和特德·惠斯勒。但鉴于投资苹果的规模以及伯克希尔买进的航空股总量，这些投资背后的那个人可能就是巴菲特。

说到卖出沃尔玛的股票，一些观察人士已经在巴菲特对前者竞争对手的评价中寻到了端倪——他曾反复称赞亚马逊及其CEO杰夫·贝佐斯。许多人都把伯克希尔抛售沃尔玛股份解读为这表明巴菲特不再认为大型零售商能够跟网络竞争对手抗衡（巴菲特确实还持有一些零售商的股票，其中包括Nebraska Furniture Mart）。

伯克希尔证券投资的上述调整或许消除了近年来一些评论人士大炒特炒的一个风险因素。巴菲特近几年的投资表现显然出现了滑坡。有些人说，这是因为伯克希尔长期持有少数几家公司的大量股份，比如经营模式似乎都面临重大挑战的IBM和沃尔玛。卖出这些股票或许表明巴菲特比以往更愿意调整自己的证券投资。

情况或许如此。以下是2016年巴菲特砸下重金的新持有对象（所有数据均截至2016年12月31日）：

Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous stock picker, wants everyone to know that he also sells.

In his annual letter to shareholders, which was released on Saturday, Buffett, who is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, says there has been some misunderstanding about his investment method. He even added a line to a section that has been included nearly unchanged in the letter every year since 1983 to clear up the confusion.

But anyone following Buffett this year should have known that he sells, or has been recently. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway exited billion-dollar-plus stakes in AT&T, Deere, and P&G. But his most high profile stock sale was Walmart. In 2016, Berkshire sold near all of the shares it held of the giant retailer, which Buffett’s company first invested in back in 2005.

All of those sales, led to a major reshuffling of Berkshire’s portfolio. Among Berkshire’s top 15 holdings, four are shares of companies that Berkshire Hathaway didn’t own a year ago. The year before that none of Berkshire’s top holdings were new.

The fact that his top holdings rarely change has led some to declare that Buffett is a buy-and-hold-forever investor. Buffett says that’s not the case—and he provides the proof for his claim. In this year's letter, Buffett says there are some stocks that he doesn’t plan to sell anytime soon, but he says that’s not a commitment. Any stock Berkshire owns could be sold tomorrow, Buffett says. He added a line to the perennial section of the letter that describes Buffett's investment philosophy to clarify his approach.

Buffett did not comment directly on Walmart, or any of his big stock purchases of the past year, including his most headline grabbing one—buying $6.7 billion worth of Apple stock. That investment has already gained at least $400 million. The Apple stock purchases make up half of the new shares that Berkshire has added to its top holdings in the past year. The other three additions to his top 15 holdings are all airlines stocks, including Delta, Southwest Airlines, and United Continental. Berkshire also invested more than $1 billion in a fourth airline stock, American Airlines, which it puts it just out of the company’s top holdings. Buffett did not own shares in any airline carrier a year ago.

Buffett doesn't select every stock that is added to Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio. And increasingly Buffett has been handing over more of the investment decisions to two recent hires Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. But given the size of the Apple investment, and the collective stake Berkshire has taken in the airlines, it is likely that Buffett was behind both of those investments.

When it comes to the Walmart sale, some observers have detected clues in Buffett's comments about one of the retailer's rivals. He has routinely praised Amazon and its CEO Jeff Bezos. Many have interpreted Berkshire's sale of Walmart shares to suggest that Buffett no longer thinks large retailers can compete with online competitors. (Buffett does still own some retailers, including Nebraska Furniture Mart.)

The reshuffling of Berkshire's portfolio may remove a risk that some Berkshire commentators had a made a bigger deal of in recent years. Buffett's investment performance has appeared to cool off in recent years. Some have said that's because Berkshire is stuck holding onto large positions in a small number of companies, like IBM or Walmart that are all seem to be face big challenges to their business models. The stock sales may suggest that Buffett is more willing to shake up his portfolio than it appeared in the past.

That may be the case. Here's the companies Buffett made big new bets on in 2016 (all data is as of Dec. 31, 2016):