困扰全球经济的三大风险

经济合作与发展组织（OECD）本周二展望了未来形势，并警告道，尽管全球经济正在缓慢增长，但也有一些危机可能会在不远的未来对仍然脆弱的经济造成打击。

贸易保护主义抬头会伤害就业

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looked into its crystal ball Tuesday, and warned that while the global economy is slowly improving now, these are some of the shocks that could derail the still-fragile recovery in the not-too-distant future.

Rising protectionism could hurt jobs.

经合组织在报告中没有直接点名美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，不过这家位于巴黎的组织明确表示他们不赞同其“美国第一”的贸易提案，或是席卷美国、英国和欧洲的贸易保护主义思潮。

经合组织提到，美国、欧洲、中国等全球主要的贸易经济体都在加设贸易壁垒，这可能会反而对国内生产总值和就业率产生负面影响。他们警告道：“现有贸易开放度的回退，可能会带来高昂的代价。”

表格显示，美国有10%的工作岗位都与全球贸易有关，在英国，这一比例超过了20%；在德国，甚至接近30%。

股市调整

The OECD never mentions President Donald Trump by name it is report, but the Paris-based organization made it clear it does not endorse his “America First” trade proposals, or the broader protectionist zeitgeist sweeping across the United States, Britain, and Europe.

“A roll-back of existing trade openness would be costly,” the OECD warned, noting an increase in trade barriers in the major global trading economies like the United States, Europe, and China could adversely impact GDP and jobs in those places.

The warning comes with a chart, showing about 10% of American jobs are linked to global trade. In the United Kingdom, that number is over 20%, and in Germany, it’s near 30%.

A stock market correction.

近来，股市指数飙升至历史新高，尽管利率也开始上升，长期来看经济总会增长的预测也从未变过。

经合组织警告道，随着投资者重新评估股票和基本面之间的脱节，市场很可能会出现“急速回弹”。

经合组织的报告中指出：“市场对未来利率的大幅重估，可能会导致资产大范围的重新定价，它们如今的价格是由债券的低收益率支撑的。”

全球房地产的繁荣与崩溃

Stocks have surged to record highs recently, even though interest rates are also starting to rise and long-term forecasts for economic growth have barely changed.

The OECD warns that a “snap-back” in markets may be in the cards, as investors reassess this disconnect between equities and fundamentals.

“A sharp reassessment by markets of the future path of interest rates could result in substantial and widespread re-pricing of assets that have been supported by low bond yields,” the OECD report said.

A global housing boom and bust.

由于过去几年利率的历史新低，加拿大、瑞典和英国等国家的房价出现了飙升。如今已经有理由担心这些地区的房价严重过高，房地产崩溃的时机将近。

经合组织的首席经济学家凯瑟琳·曼在新闻发布会上指出，买房价格和租房（替代买房的手段）价格的比值，在加拿大、瑞典和英国已经达到了20世纪80年代以来的最高点。

这一点很有意义，因为它意味着未来几年内这些国家的央行如果更快地提高利率，这些房地产市场就注定要遭遇震荡。

总体来看，全球经济的增长仍然“过于缓慢”。

经合组织预计，2017年的全球经济增长率为3.3%，2018年为3.6%，这比起去年的3%都有提升。不过经合组织称，以历史标准看，这仍然“过于缓慢”了。

2007年金融危机之前的20年中，全球经济的平均增长率大约为4%。

曼表示：“这很重要，因为财政状况和对消费者与企业的期待很大程度上都立足于这个4%或更高的增长环境。尽管经济态势已经出现好转，但若要兑现我们对公民的承诺，这个增长率仍然不高，无法满足我们的需求。”（财富中文网）

作者：Annalyn Kurtz

译者：严匡正

Fueled by historically low interest rates over the last few years, countries like Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. have seen rapid increases in home prices. Now, there are valid concerns that homes are significantly overvalued in these areas and ripe for a sudden housing bust.

Measuring home prices compared to rents (a substitute for buying a home) shows these ratios are at record highs since at least the 1980s in Canada, Sweden, and the U.K., said Catherine Mann, the OECD’s chief economist in a press briefing.

That’s meaningful, she said, because it could mean these markets will be in for a shock as central banks start raising rates more rapidly over the next few years.

Overall, the world economy is still “too slow.”

The OECD expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018, both marking an improvement over mere 3% last year. But that’s still “too slow” by historic standards, the OECD said.

The global economy averaged around 4% growth in the two decades before the 2007 financial crisis.

“The reason why this matters is because many of the fiscal stances and expectations of both consumers and businesses are predicated on this 4% more robust growth climate,” Mann said. “Even though it’s an improved pickup, it still remains modest and falls short of what we need to have in order to make good on our promises to our citizens.”