自由职业者越来越多，不一定是因为经济不好

零工经济并不是因为优步（Uber）应用才涌现的。发达经济体中有相当比例的劳动力都是自由职业者，这可以追溯到100年前，当时农业和手工业是人们最主要从事的行业。

如今，在没有朝九晚五的“正规”工作的情况下，谋生的手段要丰富得多——因此，许多劳动力的情况与政府统计的数据并不相符。我们很难搞清究竟有多少人是自由职业者，他们在干什么，又是什么促使他们单干。为此，麦肯锡全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）调查了六个国家8,000人的工作生活。他们的有些回答令人惊讶。以下是我们的发现：

自由职业者的人数比你想象得更多

据麦肯锡全球研究院估计，美国和欧洲的劳动年龄人口中，有大约10%至15%都以独立工作作为谋生的主要手段。另有10%至15%则会在业余从事独立工作作为补充。在美国和欧盟的15个国家中，总共有1.62亿人拥有正式工作的工资以外的收入。这不只是美国经济才有的特色，在接受调查的欧洲国家中，自由职业者的规模和组成都与美国的惊人相似。

独立工作的流行不只是经济糟糕的表现

随着大萧条的影响逐渐消退，自由职业者的数量却没有任何减少的迹象。实际上，这群人中绝大部分都是自己选择兼职的“临时工”。其中一些人兼职是为了增加收入，另一些则是出于自己的兴趣。

此外，独立工作可能还有益于宏观经济。它往往是维持失业率的救生索。考虑到它有着灵活性和低门槛的重要特点，这有助于满足美国和欧洲1亿看护人、老年人等其他希望更多参与到工作中的人口。

大部分自由职业者并不是在坐等“真正”工作的到来

“大部分自由职业者都希望拥有传统的工作，只是被雇主拒之门外而已”，这是一种普遍的误解。在这次麦肯锡全球研究院的调查中，有大约70%的自由职业者表示这是他们自己的选择。

这些主动选择通过独立工作获得主要收入的“自由人”，对工作生活的满意度要高于传统工作的受访者。他们认为这样更灵活，可以当自己的老板，拥有更好的提升机遇，也能专注于自己喜欢的工作。对许多人而言，这种自主性显然有其内在价值。

自由职业者并不都是工作不稳定、收入低的千禧一代

自由职业者横跨各个年龄、教育背景、收入和行业。尽管各国25岁以下的人口中，有超过一半是自由职业者，但他们只占自由职业者总数的不足四分之一。另一方面，随着婴儿潮一代纷纷退休，老年自由职业者也值得关注。65岁以上的受访者中，有超过一半已经成为了自由职业者。

尽管独立工作主要集中在家政服务和交通运输等低薪领域，不过医生、治疗师、律师、会计师和设计师等高收入人群也青睐自由职业。

自由职业者的数量和数字化程度在未来会进一步提高

数字市场可能会加快受雇员工向自由职业者的大范围转变。如今，只有6%的自由职业者会通过优步Uber、Blablacar、TaskRabbit或Upwork等平台提供服务来挣钱。这类数字市场仍然在提高影响力，还有一些提供其他类型专门服务的平台正在兴起。

考虑到eBay的历史只有大约20年，而如今有三分之二的个体卖家都在电子商务市场经营。利用无处不在的移动设备，数字平台可以接触到巨大的工作者和消费者群体，利用实时信息进行更有效的匹配。这种模式让人们更容易开始自由职业，迅速找到工作，而不需要自己费尽口舌。

他们会这么做吗？麦肯锡全球研究院调查了人们未来希望的工作方式，以及他们去践行的可能性。通过独立工作获得主要收入的群体中，约有68%表示他们打算继续下去，而希望独立工作的人数则是倾向于传统工作的人数的两倍以上。此外，拥有自由职业的受访者中，有近三分之一希望以后把全部时间投入兼职的零工。

综合考虑这些回答，以及展现出工作欲望的庞大不活跃人口，我们可以推测，自由职业者的规模在未来几年内可能翻番。然而，这很大程度上也取决于是否有合适的政策铺平道路。全球各国的法院和监管部门都在努力应对这些新的工作模式产生的问题。显然，有数千万人不愿意把所有的工作时间都用于为别人打工。他们是否有能力成为自己的老板，关键在于决策者和私营企业有没有做好开绿灯的准备。（财富中文网）

本文作者詹姆斯·曼伊卡和雅克·巴格因是麦肯锡全球研究院的董事，苏珊·伦德则是合伙人。

作者：James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund

译者：严匡正

The gig economy didn’t just spring into existence with the touch of an Uber app. A significant share of the workforce in advanced economies has always been self-employed, dating back 100 years to when farming and craftsmen were the predominant occupations.

Today the options for making a living without a “regular” 9-to-5 job are far more varied—and as a result, a large slice of the labor force doesn’t fit neatly into government statistics. It’s been hard to get a handle on how many people work independently, what they do, and what motivates them to go it alone. To fill in these gaps, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) asked 8,000 people across six countries about their working lives. Their responses provide some surprises. Here’s what we found:

The independent workforce is bigger than you think

About 10% to 15% of the working-age population in the United States and Europe make their primary living through independent work, MGI estimates. And another 10% to 15% do some kind of independent work on a supplemental basis. All told, that’s 162 million people working outside of formal payroll jobs across the U.S. and 15 nations across the European Union. This isn’t just a quirk of the US economy; the relative size and makeup of the independent workforce looks strikingly similar across the European countries that were surveyed.

The prevalence of independent work is not just a symptom of a bad economy

There’s no sign that the independent workforce is shrinking as the Great Recession fades into the rear-view mirror. In fact, the largest segment consists of “casual earners” who do work on the side by choice; while some take on extra work to boost their income, others are pursuing a personal interest.

Furthermore, independent work may actually have macroeconomic benefits. It’s often a lifeline that helps the unemployed stay afloat. And given that its key features are flexibility and low barriers to entry, it boost labor force participation among caregivers, seniors, and others among the 100 million inactive adults that report they want to work more in the U.S. and Europe.

Most independent workers are not just marking time until a “real” job comes along

It’s a popular myth that most gig workers want traditional jobs but are shut out of them. Roughly 70% of the independent workers MGI surveyed report working on their own by choice.

Those who earn their primary income independently and do so by choice—the so-called “free agents”— report higher levels of satisfaction with their work lives than respondents with traditional jobs. They cite the flexibility, the chance to be their own boss, better opportunities for advancement, and the ability to focus on work they enjoy. For many people, autonomy clearly has inherent value.

Independent workers aren’t all millennials stuck in precarious, low-wage work

The independent workforce spans all ages, education levels, incomes, and occupations. While more than half of those under age 25 participate in all countries, they make up less than one-quarter of the independent workforce. At the other end of the spectrum, the senior segment bears watching as waves of baby boomers continue to retire. Half or more of those over age 65 who work already do so by freelancing.

While independent work is prevalent in lower-paying fields such as household services and transportation, it’s also preferred by many highly paid professionals, including doctors, therapists, lawyers, accountants, and designers.

The independent workforce may grow—and grow more digital—in the future

Digital marketplaces could accelerate a broader shift from payroll jobs to independent work. Today only 6 percent of the independent workers who make money by offering their own services do so through platforms like Uber, Blablacar, TaskRabbit, or Upwork. But this share has the potential to take off. These types of digital marketplaces are still building awareness, and new ones are being launched to offer other types of specialized services.

Consider that eBay has been around for 20 years already—and today two-thirds of those who sell goods independently do so in an e-commerce marketplace. Building on the ubiquity of mobile devices, digital platforms can reach enormous pools of workers and customers, harnessing real-time information to make more efficient matches. This model makes it easy for people to get started and find work quickly without relying on word of mouth.

Will they actually do it? The MGI survey asked people how they want to work in the future—and how likely they are to pursue those aspirations. Some 68% of independent primary earners plan to continue, and for every one of them who would prefer a traditional job, more than two traditional workers hope to venture out on their own. Additionally, almost a third of casual earners envision turning their side gigs into full-time occupations.

Combining these responses with the large inactive populations stating a desire to work, it’s conceivable that the independent workforce could double in size in the years ahead. But a lot depends on whether the right frameworks are put in place to ease the way. In countries around the world, courts and regulators are grappling with questions surrounding these new working models. It’s becoming clear that tens of millions of people don’t want to spend their entire working lives as someone else’s employee. Their ability to become their own bosses depends in large part on whether policy makers and the private sector are ready to make this path feasible.

James Manyika and Jacques Bughin are directors of the McKinsey Global Institute where Susan Lund is a partner.