人工智能将在10年内改变卡车驾驶模式

人工智能（AI）技术预计将在10年内改变卡车运输行业，这是自动驾驶卡车公司Otto联合创始人里奥•罗恩的看法。去年8月，叫车服务提供商优步收购了Otto，据称收购价为6.80亿美元。

本周一，罗恩在旧金山的《MIT Technology Review》人工智能大会上预计，10年内无人驾驶卡车就会在全美国的高速公路上跑常规线路了。

罗恩的话和美国商务部长史蒂夫•努钦的表态正好相反。努钦最近接受新闻网站Axios采访时说，差不多50-100年内人工智能都不会明显影响就业。许多技术专家和分析师都认为努钦作出这番评价时未掌握相关信息，原因是人工智能最近取得的进展已经有可能让计算机执行某些任务的速度超过人，比如在图片中识别物体。

主持人问罗恩，无人驾驶卡车的兴起对人类卡车司机来说意味着什么？罗恩回答说，他们的工作会发生巨大的变化。但他没有明确表示会不会出现大面积失业。

相反，罗恩说在“可预见的未来”，AI技术会成为卡车司机的“合伙驾驶人”。他指出，“卡车司机并不是一份轻松的工作”，他们最多得驾车11个小时“才能勉强实现收支平衡”。

罗恩认为，想当卡车司机的人“不是非常多”，而且整个美国都缺这样的工作机会。他相信Otto的技术有可能让卡车在比有人驾驶还安全的状态下行驶许多个小时。

“瞧，一部分驾驶工作将完全实现自动化。”罗恩指的是自动驾驶卡车在高速和普通公路上行驶的想法。不过，他说卡车在城市中行驶时仍需要人类司机来控制方向。

城市街道对自动驾驶车辆来说难度较大，因为它们得应付较多可变因素，比如行人、红绿灯和交叉路口。罗恩说，“这种工作的性质将发生转变”，从而让司机把更多时间用于在城市中将卡车开往目的地，而不是在高速公路上长时间行驶。

但罗恩并未提及Otto的母公司优步正在积极开发不需要人为干预就能在城市中穿行的自动驾驶轿车。如果优步最终制造出能在城市中安全行驶的自动驾驶车辆，对人类司机在城市中驾驶卡车的需求就可能下降。

应当注意的是，上周五发生测试车辆侧翻事故后，优步暂停了亚利桑那州的无人驾驶汽车行驶测试。

今年2月，自动驾驶卡车初创公司Starsky Robotics首次亮相，它说自己带来的技术可以让卡车司机在必须穿过城市时遥控自动驾驶卡车。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审稿：夏林

Expect artificial intelligence technologies to alter the truck driving industry within the next 10 years. That’s according to Lior Ron, the cofounder of self-driving truck company Otto, which ride-hailing company Uber bought in August for a reported $680 million.

Ron said Monday that he expects driverless trucks to routinely cruise throughout U.S. freeways in the next decade. He made his comments in San Francisco during a MIT Technology Review conference on artificial intelligence.

Ron’s comments contrast with statements made by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Steve Mnuchin, who said in a recent interview with news outlet Axios that AI will not affect jobs in a meaningful way for roughly 50 to 100 years. Many technologists and analysts perceived Mnuchin’s comments on AI and jobs as uninformed when compared to recent AI advancements that have made it possible for computers to perform several tasks, like recognizing objects in pictures, faster than humans.

When a moderator asked Ron what the rise of driver-less trucks means for human truck drivers, Ron acknowledged that their jobs would drastically change. However, he stopped short of explicitly saying there would be widespread job loss.

Instead, Ron said that AI technologies would act as a “co-pilot” to truck drivers for the “foreseeable future.” He said that “being a truck driver is not an easy job” and that it requires workers to drive up to 11 hours “just to make end’s meet.”

Ron said that “not a lot of people” want to be truck drivers and there is a national shortage of available trucking jobs. He believes that his company’s technology will make it possible for trucks to travel for many hours in a safer way than humans.

“Look, some portions of driving will be fully automated,” Ron said referring to the idea of self-driving trucks on freeways and highways. However, he said that there would still be a need for human truck drivers who need to steer the trucks when they drive through cities.

City streets pose a more difficult challenge for self-driving vehicles as they deal with more variables like pedestrians, stoplights, and intersections. He said that the “nature of the jobs will shift,” so that truck drivers would spend more time driving the trucks to their destinations in cities instead of long hours on freeways.

Still, Ron did not mention that Otto’s parent company Uber is actively working on self-driving cars that can drive throughout cities without the need for humans. If Uber were to eventually create autonomous vehicles that can drive safely in cities, there would be less of a need for human truck drivers to have to drive the vehicles in cities.

It should be noted that Uber has suspended test driving of its autonomous vehicles in Arizona after an accident occurred last Friday that left one of its test cars tipped over onto its side.

In February, a new self-driving truck startup Starsky Robotics debuted with technology that the company said would let truck drivers remotely control self-driving trucks when they have to drive through cities.