苹果要在这个领域放大招

增强现实涵盖了所有利用数字信息，无缝强化现实世界的技术。在未来十年里，增强现实如我们所知的那样，取代智能手机和平板电脑等设备的屏幕。上一季度，苹果有69%的收入来自iPhone，7%来自iPad，另外在这些平台上销售的应用，苹果也都能按一定比例抽成。如果苹果无法主宰增强现实领域，那么随着使用增强现实技术的硬件取代智能手机，成为我们联系世界的主要接口，苹果将会有四分之三甚至更多的业务消失。

对苹果而言的好消息是，公司内部的文化可以让他们行动起来，把重心从当下的智能手机转向未来由增强现实技术优化过的智能手机和可穿戴设备。

增强现实会以我们的智能手机作为载体，我们当中许多人使用这项技术时甚至没有意识到这点。例如，Snapchat的透镜可以让用户在通讯时改变自己的脸型，增加狗耳朵或是玻璃缸的背景。另一个案例则是2016年火爆的《精灵宝可梦Go》（Pokemon Go），玩家可以造访现实世界的地点，捕捉游戏中的精灵。

这些早期的应用看起来可能只是些噱头，不过未来的增强现实会有更强的实用性。例如可以用视线的转动来翻动书页，而不用亲手操作；利用面部识别帮助回忆某些人与你的关系；过滤背景音的耳机可以让你在嘈杂环境下听清对话；衣物则会根据天气来调节温度，这些先进的产品会让我们惊叹自己在没有真正的增强现实技术之前，是怎么活了那么久。

谷歌（Google）、微软（Microsoft）和Facebook也在增强现实领域展开了竞争。谷歌在增强现实技术的数据库上占有优势，而苹果则手握一张胜过其他所有公司的王牌：设计。

想要实现对现实世界持久、无缝的增强，增强现实技术需要植入可穿戴设备才能有足够的吸引力。人们讨论最多的增强现实的应用，就是某些形式的联网眼镜。尽管眼镜可能将成为智能手机之外的一种增强现实设备，但音频设备、手表，甚至联网服装也可以成为增强现实技术的载体。正如所有的服装和配件一样，消费者会要求可穿戴的增强现实设备看起来时尚、不违和，搭载的计算机也不要过于明显（谷歌眼镜在这些方面都做得不好）。因此，设计，而非功能，才是增强现实技术从智能手机转向未来的计算接口的首要因素。

没有哪家公司的电子产品比苹果的更加时尚。谷歌和微软的核心设计实力不足，无法打造出让消费者叹服的可穿戴产品，这意味着他们很可能把重点放在软件开发上。而苹果就能因此获得整合优质软硬件的熟悉位置。

我们之前看过这样的剧情。微软统治了个人电脑的市场份额，苹果远远地排在第二位。谷歌的安卓（Android）也统治了智能手机的市场份额，苹果又一次远远排在第二。但苹果在这两个市场都掌控了硬件和软件，提供了最好的用户体验，这也让公司在业内获取了远超市场份额比例的巨额利润。

那么苹果在增强现实领域会有怎样的未来？按照他们典型的创新模式，苹果如今正在进行小规模的摸索。首先是公司的新款无线耳机AirPods。这是一款早期的增强现实产品，可以与声控个人助手Siri保持联系。AirPods展现了苹果的设计优势，考虑到对产品的高要求，供应量还很有限。其次，苹果上周发布了新的视频应用Clips，用户可以给视频信息加上特效，就像用Snapchat的透镜一样。第三，今年秋天即将上市的新一代iPhone据说会搭载3D地图芯片，这可以让苹果和第三方开发者通过新的方式与用户环境互动，这也将成为苹果第一款优化了增强现实技术的智能手机。这类手机可以缩小如今的智能手机与未来的增强现实可穿戴设备之间的鸿沟，在未来三到五年内扩大智能手机的适用范围，使之成为占主导地位的增强现实设备。

在这些小规模的探索之外，苹果也非同寻常地表示了对于增强现实的兴趣。今年2月，苹果的首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，他把增强现实看作“智能手机一样的重要想法”。不过，库克也承认：“增强现实的普及还需要一段时间，因为还有一些很难解决的技术挑战。”主要的难题之一，就是在实现高质量体验和长续航时间的同时，把配件做得足够小。苹果很可能已经开始研发一款可穿戴眼镜，然而我们想要见到成品，最早也得到2019年，原因只有一个：用户体验。苹果不会放出体验糟糕的半成品。两年的等待可能令人失望，不过苹果已经证明，即便竞争者已经进入市场多年，他们凭借更好的产品也能后来居上占领好位置。

史蒂夫·乔布斯砍掉了那些没有特色的苹果产品，因为他知道如果苹果不去做，其他人也可以做。这种导向依旧深深扎根于公司的DNA里。苹果的增强现实困境不在于是否要取消iPhone，而是公司要花多长时间才能合理地做到这一点。他们的等待将是值得的。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

本文作者吉恩·蒙斯特、道格·克林顿和安德鲁·墨菲是Loup Ventures的任事股东。蒙斯特和墨菲是苹果的投资人，墨菲还是谷歌的投资人。

AR includes any technology that uses digital information to seamlessly enhance the real world. Over the next 10 years, AR will replace the screen as we know it, including those of smartphones and tablets. Apple generated 69% of its revenue from the iPhone and 7% from the iPad last quarter; additionally, the company takes a cut of all software sold on those platforms. If Apple doesn’t find a way to dominate AR, it could see three-quarters or more of its business disappear as new AR-focused hardware supplants the smartphone as our interface to the world.

The good news for Apple is that it’s culturally built to make the move from the smartphones of today to the AR-optimized smartphones and wearables of the future.

AR is delivered through our smartphones, and many of us use the technology without even thinking about it. For example, Snapchat’s lenses allow users to change what their face looks like in messages, adding dog ears or an aquarium background. Another example is thePokemon Go craze of 2016; gamers visited real-world locations to catch characters in the game.

These early applications may seem gimmicky, but the AR of the future will enable far more utility. Use cases like dynamic visual how-to manuals for hands-on work, facial recognition to help recall details about a relationship with someone you’re with, earphones that filter out background noise so you can only hear your conversation in a noisy environment, and clothing that adjusts its temperature based on the weather will make us wonder how we ever lived without true AR.

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are also competing in the AR space. While Google holds an advantage in building up a data base to use with the technology, Apple holds a trump card over all the others: design.

To enable persistent, seamless augmentation of the real world, compelling AR will require the adoption of wearables. The most talked about device for AR delivery is some form of connected glasses. While glasses will likely be an enabler of AR beyond the smartphone, audio devices, watches, and even connected clothing also belong in the AR category. As with all clothing and accessories, consumers will require wearable AR devices to look fashionable, unobtrusive, and not obviously a computer (Google Glass failed at all of these). Therefore, design, not function, is the most important factor for AR to make the leap from a smartphone feature to the computing interface of the future.

No one makes more fashionable electronics than Apple. Neither Google nor Microsoft has the core design competency to create compelling consumer product designs for wearables, which means they will most likely be relegated to primarily providing software. That puts Apple in the familiar position of integrating premium hardware and software.

We’ve seen this game before. Microsoft dominates PC market share, with Apple a distant second. Google’s Android dominates smartphone market share, with Apple again a distant second. In both cases, Apple offers the best user experience by controlling both the hardware and software, which allows the company to capture an outsized portion of industry profits relative to their total unit share.

So what’s next for Apple in AR? True to their typical pattern of innovation, Apple is taking baby steps. First, AirPods, the company’s new wireless earphones, represent an early AR product that enables a constant connection with the voice-activated personal assistant Siri. The AirPods show Apple’s design advantage and remain limited in supply given the high demand for them. Second, Apple announced its Clips video app last week, which lets users add effects to video messages like they can with Snapchat’s lenses. Third, the next iPhone, coming this fall, is rumored to include a 3D mapping chip that would enable Apple and third-party developers to interact with a user’s environment in new ways—Apple’s first AR-optimized smartphone. The AR-optimized smartphone bridges the gap from the smartphones of today to the AR wearables of tomorrow, extending the runway of the smartphone as the predominant AR device for the next three to five years.

Beyond these baby steps, Apple has been uncharacteristically vocal about its interest in AR. In February, CEO Tim Cook said he views AR as “a big idea like the smartphone.” However, Cook also admitted, “AR is going to take a while because there are some really hard technology challenges there.” The main challenges include miniaturization of the components necessary to deliver a high-quality experience and battery capacity. Apple is probably already working on a wearable glasses product, but 2019 would likely be the earliest we see Apple Glasses for one reason: user experience. Apple will not release a product that is half-baked and provides a poor user experience. A two-year wait for Apple Glasses may be disappointing, but Apple has shown that it is comfortable entering a market well after its competitors so long as it offers a better product.

Steve Jobs killed off Apple products that weren’t exceptional because he knew that if he didn’t do it, someone else would. That guidance remains deeply ingrained in the company’s DNA. Apple's AR dilemma isn’t whether or not to kill the iPhone, but how long it will take the company to viably do so. It’ll be worth the wait.