别被骗了，3月份就业报告比看上去好

美元汇率走低，美国3月份新增非农就业人数也只有98000人，但很大程度上是天气相关因素所致，无法体现真实就业趋势。只要明白这点，大家就会发现美国经济仍在稳步增长。问题在于即便新政府用尽办法注入动力，经济仍然不温不火。

新增就业人数方面，华尔街分析师此前预测的数字为18万人，实际上的9.8万人差不多只有预计的一半，股市和美元应声下跌。但之后迅速回升，原因是投资者进一步研究了数据——过去3个月的平均新增就业人数仍达17.8万，而且失业率已经回落至近10年来的最低点，就业状况其实不错。

今年1、2月，异常温暖的天气使建筑业就业人数超过正常水平，实际上将春季就业增长提前了。更糟糕的是，劳工统计局调查就业情况的那一周美国东北部恰好出现特大暴风雪，显然压低了当周的就业人数。暴风雪还影响了平均工作小时数，也是就业报告中另一个令人失望的数据。

更直接体现就业趋势的数据看起来都不错——失业人数减少32.6万，降至720.2万，失业率也随之下滑到4.5%，均为2007年以来的最低点。同样重要的是，劳工统计局的U6失业率，也就是包含未充分就业人口的失业率也从9.2%跌至8.9%。虽然整体劳动参与率平稳，但“信心受挫”的劳动者，也就是不相信自己有机会就业的人过去一年减少了20%以上。这些显然都是好消息。

证券公司ADM ISI分析师马克·奥斯特瓦尔德说：“总之，4月份就业人数应出现漂亮的反弹。”

也就是说，大多数指标都表明就业市场仍“供给紧张”。不过如果只研究报告中的薪酬数据可看不出来。3月份平均小时工资环比仅上升0.2%，符合预期，而且和2月份环比涨幅持平。和上年同期相比，3月份工资提高了2.7%，甚至赶不上通胀率——3月份美国通胀率为2.8%（主要原因是石油和天然气价格在2016年3月触底反弹）。

制造业工资水平通常高于服务业。3月份制造业就业人数增加1.1万，零售业就业人数则减少近3万，表明美国零售业受到电子商务的严重冲击。另一个表现出众的是金融服务业，就业人数达到840.9万，刷新了历史最高纪录（今年2月份该行业就业人数突破了金融危机前的高点）。此外，专业和商业服务行业（工资水平也普遍较高）就业人数也增长了4.6万，这两个行业的情况表明平均工资实际增幅应该略高一些。但平均工资并未上升，显示低端薪酬未能达到应有的水平。换句话说，收入差距看来有可能继续扩大。

Manuflife Asset Management首席经济学家梅根·格林指出：“和往常一样，就业增长质量及工资提升比单纯看就业人数增长重要。在这方面，本次报告和这几年大多数就业报告情况相似，看不出什么增长。”

格林认为，3月份就业数据使美联储今年只再加息两次的可能性上升。楼市或能保持稳定，而且至少能减轻汽车行业受到的冲击。由于汽车租赁成本上升，近期汽车销量放缓。

ADM ISI分析师也表示，薪酬数据不会让美联储感到紧张。但他提醒道，公开市场委员会6月份召开会议前美联储不太可能采取行动，届时本次就业报告的数据就会太久远不值得参考。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

The dollar and the headline number of non-farm jobs added—a mere 98,000—was shockingly low, but that owed much to weather-related issues that say nothing about the underlying trend. Once you look through that, you see an economy that is still ticking along, but struggling to step up a gear despite the best efforts of the new administration to chivvy it along.

The 98,000 gain in jobs was barely half the 180,000 Wall Street analysts had forecast,

which is why the stock market and the dollar fell in response. But both quickly turned round as investors got to the underlying data: The average monthly gain in employment over the last three months is still 178,000, which is a decent achievement given that unemployment is already back at its lowest level in nearly 10 years.

In January and February, unseasonably warm weather had led to more people finding construction jobs than usual, gains that were effectively moved up from the spring months. To make matters worse, the BLS survey was actually carried out in the week that a major snowstorm hit the northeast, which obviously depressed hiring in that week. The snowstorm also had an impact on the average number of hours worked, which was the only other disappointing element of the report.

The figures that better reflect the trend look more impressive: The number of jobless fell by 326,000 to 7.202 million, taking the unemployment rate down to to 4.5% of the working population. For both numbers, that's their lowest since late 2007. Just as importantly, the BLS's "U6" rate that includes under-employed people also fell – to 8.9% of the population from 9.2%. Although the overall labor force participation rate was steady, the number of "discouraged workers" – i.e., those who don't believe there are jobs out there for them – is down by over 20% in the last year. That's all clearly good news.

All in all, said, ADM ISI analyst Marc Ostwald, "April payrolls should rebound smartly."

So, by most measures, the labor market continues to "tighten." But you wouldn't guess it from looking at the earnings component of the report. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% on the month, as expected, and unchanged from February, and were up 2.7% on the year. Right now, that isn't even keeping up with inflation, which hit 2.8% last month (mainly because March 2016 was the month that oil and gas prices bottomed out).

Manufacturing jobs, which tend to be higher-paying than service-sector ones, rose 11,000, but retail jobs fell by nearly 30,000, testimony to the problems of stores across the country that are being laid waste by e-commerce. The other sector to stand out is financial services, where employment hit a new all-time high of 8.409 million (they passed their pre-crisis high in February). That, combined with another 46,000 rise in professional and business services (also a generally higher-paying sector), suggests that average wages should actually have risen a bit more than they did. The fact that they couldn't pull the average higher suggests that earnings at the bottom of the scale are weaker than they should be. In other words, it looks like inequality could be getting wider.

"As always, more important than the number of jobs added is the quality of them and the resultant wage growth," said Megan Greene, chief economist with Manuflife Asset Management. "On that front, this report—like most of them over the past few years—was decidedly meh."

Greene reckons that the figures shorten the odds of the Federal Reserve only raising interest two more times this year. That ought to keep the housing market steady and, at least, limit the damage to the auto sector, where sales have slowed recently as lease plans start to get more expensive.

ADM ISI's Archer also argues that the earnings figures are nothing to scare the Fed, but cautioned that it wasn't really likely to do anything before its Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June anyway – by which time this report will be ancient history.