朝鲜威胁核打击，韩国债务违约风险提高

近日，朝鲜针对当前半岛局势作出强硬回应，称已准备好在受到美国挑衅时发动核打击。随着地缘政治风险日益紧张，上周二，各大金融市场也陷入了恐慌状态。随着对半岛火药桶彻底引爆的担忧愈演愈烈，位于半岛南端的韩国首当其冲地受到了影响。

风险经理拉里•麦克唐纳德上周二在他的博客“The Bear Traps Report”中指出，韩国主权债务违约的保险成本在一夜之间显著升高了。

在美朝双方进行了针锋相对的战争恐吓后，本周二投资者们纷纷转向了传统的几种避险交易工具，韩国主权债务违约保险成本上升只是由此造成的市场变化之一。上周二，黄金和日元价值都跃升到了近五个月来的最高水平。

韩国的信用违约掉期一夜之间从53个基本点跃升到60个基本点，也就是说，每1000万美元的五年债务违约保险成本将达到每年6万美元。这也是自去年七月市场对亚洲经济疲软的担忧达到顶峰以来的最高水平。

需要指出的是，业界普遍认为韩国主权债务违约的风险仍然很低。但即便如此，信用违约掉期在一夜之间上涨这么多，仍然是不同寻常的迹象。

麦克唐纳德对《财富》表示：“韩国是不会违约的，不过韩国的主权违约风险毕竟从6%上涨到了9%，这在短期内是一种显著变化。”

信用违约掉期（CDS）是一种不太容易理解的金融工具，在金融危机爆发后得到更多关注。它本质上是一种针对债务违约的保险合约。当投资者对一国政府（比如韩国）的债务信用产生担忧时，就可以购买一份这样的合约。

对于在亚洲经营有大规模业务的美国企业，信用违约掉期不失为一种对冲广域地缘政治风险的实用工具。

“如果我是苹果公司的CEO，我会针对亚洲的一些国家购买信用违约掉期。”麦克唐纳德表示：“如果该地区发生了政治动荡，你的供应链可能处于显著的风险之中。”

本周二，特朗普在推特上给本已火药味甚浓的半岛局势又添了一把火，他表示“朝鲜正在自找麻烦，”并且向中国国家主席习近平提醒道，如果“他们解决了朝鲜问题”，中美之间或许能达成更有利的贸易协定。

“朝鲜是在自找麻烦。如果中国决定帮忙，那很好。如果不能帮忙，美国会单独解决问题！”

-唐纳德•J•特朗普（@realDonaldTrump），2017年4月11日

“我向中国国家主席解释道，如果他们解决了朝鲜问题，中国将能与美国签署有利得多的贸易协定。”

-唐纳德•J•特朗普（@realDonaldTrump），2017年4月11日

这两条推特是在四天前的“习特会”刚刚结束后发布的，到目前为止，“习特会”尚未宣布中美之间达成了任何重大突破或合作。

麦克唐纳德表示：“在协助解决朝鲜问题上，中国不会任由特朗普予取予求。如果中国确实无法提供足够的支持，肯定会影响中美之间的贸易谈判。这对苹果来说也是个坏消息，因为你的供应链会有风险。”（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Financial markets are rattled Tuesday by increasing geopolitical risks, after North Korea warned it stands ready to deploy its nuclear arsenal if provoked by the United States. And the concerns reverberate throughout the region, affecting the communist nation’s democratic neighbor to the south as well.

The cost to insure against a sovereign debt default by South Korea suddenly jumped Tuesday, notes risk manager Larry McDonald on his blog, The Bear Traps Report.

It’s one of several market moves playing out Tuesday as investors increasingly flock to traditional safe-haven trades. U.S. Treasury yields have been falling for the last two days. Both gold and the Japanese yen climbed to their highest levels in five months on Tuesday.

Overnight, credit default swap spreads for South Korea jumped from 53 basis points to 60 basis points, meaning it would cost about $60,000 a year to insure $10 million of debt for five years. That’s the highest level since July, when concerns about economic weakness in Asia prevailed.

To be clear, the probability of a default by South Korea is still considered quite low, but nevertheless, the overnight jump is a dramatic one.

“South Korea is not going to default, but the probability of default just went from maybe 6% to 9%. It’s a big move to happen in short period of time,” McDonald told Fortune.

An obscure financial instrument that rose to greater prominence during the financial crisis, a credit default swap, or CDS, is basically an insurance contract against a default. Investors can buy a contract against a sovereign government like South Korea as they speculate on the creditworthiness of that government.

For U.S. companies with a large presence in Asia, these CDS contracts may be a useful hedge against geopolitical risk in the broader region.

“If I was the CEO of Apple, I would be buying credit default swaps on countries in Asia," McDonald said. "If something were to happen politically in that region, your supply chain is at dramatic risk."

Tweets by President Trump early Tuesday only added further fuel to the fire. The president tweeted that “North Korea is looking for trouble,” and reminded Chinese President Xi Jinping that China and the U.S. could strike a better trade deal if “they solve the North Korean problem.”

North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

Those tweets follow Trump’s first face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping just four days ago, which so far has led to no major breakthroughs or pacts between the world's two largest economies.

“China didn’t give Trump everything he wanted in terms of assurances on their help with North Korea,” McDonald said. “If China doesn’t really offer enough support, that’s going to hurt the trade negotiations. That’s bad for Apple because you’ve got supply chain risk.”