欧洲央行：同一个坑不能跳两次，今年不拉闸

欧洲央行及其行长在一个问题上已经达成了共识，那就是他们不会再掉进同一个坑了。也就是说，虽然欧洲的政治风气仍有一些民粹氛围，意大利央行这颗定时炸弹也依然存在引爆的风险，但作为世界第二大央行的欧洲央行绝不会再出昏招，将此次欧元区的经济复苏扼杀在摇篮里。

尽管欧元区的经济活动已处于六年来最活跃的水平，尽管右翼民粹主义政客玛丽娜•勒庞在此次法国大选中落败几成定局，尽管面临德国人汹涌的民意压力，不过在欧洲央行政策制定委员会近日的一次新闻发布会上，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉基仍未透露任何一丝要收紧货币政策的意思。

随着美联储推出持续了近十年的大手笔的经济刺激政策，欧洲央行继续开闸放水的决定，对于全球金融市场也显得越发重要。

由于欧元区的经济和政治前景日益明朗，上周早些时候，欧元兑美元汇率曾一度攀升到近五个月来的最高点。随后随着金融市场的预期回落，欧元汇率也应声下降近0.005美元，而欧洲斯托克50指数则弥补了此前遭受的大部分损失。

德拉基与欧洲央行并非没有意识到欧元区的经济正在向好（毕竟他们不愿意放弃任何一个往自己身上揽功的机会）。德拉基本人也表示，欧洲的经济复苏之路也由以前的“脆弱和不均衡”变成了现在的“全面而稳固”。之前状况频出的几个国家，如西班牙、爱尔兰和法国的经济增长率也达到甚至超过了德国这个老牌欧洲经济火车头的水平。

德拉基指出：“情况的确有所改善，局面正在变好。”经济下行风险“进一步弱化”，目前仅仅略高于上行风险。

同时，欧洲央行也丝毫没有表现出要终止大规模购买资产的计划。欧洲央行的购债规模虽然已经调低至了每月600亿欧元（约660亿美元）。但这样的购债规模至少还将持续至今年年底。

另外，当问到欧洲退出当前的紧急政策状态的“顺序”时，德拉基显然是上了套，直言目前没有讨论退出宽松政策的顺序的必要——否则他本来可以利用这次机会暗示央行有可能会在量化宽松结束前提高利率。欧洲央行的主要再融资利率连续13个月都定在0%，存款利率则为-0.4%——也就是说各国要想将多余资金存放在欧洲央行，则要向其支付0.4%的利息。

德拉基的发言一边对欧洲经济前景表示看好，一边却淡化了欧洲央行采取动作的意愿，乍看起来似乎在打太极。同时德拉基还表示，目前欧洲的通胀水平尚无明显的上行趋势（目前仍未达到略低于2%的中期目标）。同时他也提醒现场媒体，英国脱欧以及贸易战的风险（尤其是美国挑起的贸易战）仍然存在，即便这两大风险较六个月前稍有淡化。

不过分析师们认为，此项欧洲央行之所以按兵不动，背后大有深意。

柏林贝林贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格•施米丁指出：“欧洲央行可能不想重复六年前犯过的同样的错误，就在欧元期经济危机爆发前，欧洲央行草率地采取了加息政策。”当时欧洲央行没有意识到欧元区的金融体系已经到了千创百孔的地步，对当时的通胀率的升高做出了过度反应。然而接下来造成的经济混乱使欧元区几乎到了破裂的边缘，直到德拉基本人站出来，承诺要“不惜一切代价拯救欧元”，才稳住了局面。

上周四，德拉基坚称欧洲央行能分得清“事实、评估和历史”。不过在2011年，正是由于欧洲央行那次灾难性的误判，才使得他继任让•克劳德•特里谢成为了欧洲央行的行长，而不是来自德国的货币政策鹰派阿克塞尔•韦伯。

看来他并非没有吸取这种重大的人生教训。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The Who and the European Central Bank have this much in common: they won't get fooled again. That is to say, no way will the world's 2nd largest central bank kill off the Eurozone's recovery while there's still a whiff of political populism in the air, or the slightest risk of a bad Italian bank blowing up.

Despite the fact that Eurozone economic activity is at a six-year high, despite the near-certain defeat of the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in France's presidential elections, and despite the relentless pressure of German public opinion, President Mario Draghi refused to even hint at tightening monetary policy at the press conference that followed the latest meeting of the ECB's policy-making council.

The ECB's determination to keep the monetary spigots wide open is arguably becoming more important for the world's financial markets as the Federal Reserve exits from a near-decade of extraordinary stimulus.

The euro, which had hit a five-month high against the dollar on the back of a brightening economic and political outlook earlier this week, lost nearly half a cent as traders pushed back expectations of a return to a more normal stance, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index recouped most of the earlier losses it had suffered.

It's not that Draghi and his colleagues don't recognize how much better the Eurozone economy is performing now (they never lose an opportunity to take as much credit as possible for that, after all). Draghi said that where the recovery had once been "fragile and uneven" it was now "broad and solid." Former problem countries such as Spain, Ireland and France are now growing as fast as, or even faster, than Germany, the region's usual powerhouse.

"It's true things are improving. Things are getting better," Draghi said. Downside risks "have further diminished," and now only just outweigh the upside risks.

But not so much better that the ECB was willing even to discuss ending its asset purchases, which it has now scaled down to a 'mere' 60 billion euros ($66 billion) a month. That will still run at least through the end of the year.

And not so much better that Draghi took the bait when asked about 'sequencing' the exit from the current emergency policy stance – which would have allowed him to hint at raising interest rates before the Quantitative Easing program ends. The ECB's main refinancing rate has been set at 0% for the last 13 months, and it has been charging banks 0.4% for parking their excess funds with it in that time.

Talking up the economy while talking down the Bank's willingness to act is hard to square at first sight. Draghi did so by saying there was still no clear upward trend in underlying inflation (which is still undershooting a medium-term target of just under 2%). He also reminded his audience that the risks of Brexit or a (likely U.S.-initiated) trade war hadn't gone away either, even though both seem less likely now than they did six months ago.

However, analysts said there was more to it than that.

"The ECB probably does not want to repeat the mistake it made almost exactly six years ago when it prematurely hiked rates just before the Eurozone crisis erupted," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in Berlin. Back then, the ECB had failed to recognize how badly broken the Eurozone's financial system was, and had over-reacted to an uptick in headline inflation. The ensuing mess stretched the currency union to the point of breaking, before Draghi himself rescued the situation with the promise to "do whatever it takes to save the euro."

Draghi insisted Thursday the ECB was capable of distinguishing between "facts, assessments and history," but it was that disastrous miscalculation that ensured it was he, and not the German monetary hawk Axel Weber, who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB back in 2011.

Those kind of life lessons tend not to be unlearned.