特斯拉在中国市场销量激增，2017开局良好

特斯拉（Tesla）在今年3月初表示，公司2016年在中国的汽车销售额达到了10亿美元，这震惊了所有人。

直到当时，对于特斯拉在中国表现的论调，还是他们无法取得成功。由于高昂的关税和增值税，特斯拉的Model S和Model X在中国的售价比其他国家要高50%，这意味着他们在这个全球最大的汽车市场只能当一个小角色。一位分析师甚至表示，伊隆•马斯克在登陆火星之前都进入不了中国市场。

在公布去年销售额之后，业界认为他们可能有望扭转在中国市场的表现。而他们今年第一季度在中国的数据表明，强势的增长仍在继续。

根据纽约研究公司JL Warren Capital的数据，今年的头三个月，特斯拉对中国输出了4,799辆Model S和Model X的SUV，同比增长350%。如果特斯拉在一整年都保持这个势头，今年的输出总数就将达到去年的接近两倍。不过JL Warren Capital的数据显示，该公司的销量在年末会进一步提升，因此特斯拉今年的销量很可能会比去年翻番还多。

中国市场对于特斯拉的重要性，在今年可能会大幅提升。去年，公司在中国的销售额为10亿美元，占销售总额的15%，如果今年在中国的销量翻倍，销售额就将达到20亿美元，分析师预计，这会使得公司的销售总额达到115亿美元。

最新的一季度数据是特斯拉的汽车输出数，而不是实际购买数。不过在中国，这两个数值基本相等。这家位于加利福尼亚的公司在中国几乎没有库存。中国消费者会在特斯拉的网站定制产品，选择五座、六座或七座版的Model X，以及是否安装HEPA空气过滤器，随后特斯拉会在美国组装汽车，再运到中国。从下单到提车，期间要等四个月。

第一季度销量的迅猛增长，可能会让特斯拉的投资者遐想，如果特斯拉与中国本土公司合资在当地生产汽车，从而避免25%的关税和17%的增值税，与此同时他们的电动汽车还能让买家拿到中国政府相对于售价35%的补贴，会出现什么情况。中国中央和地方政府对电动汽车的补贴预计到2020年才会逐步停止。

何时建立合资企业，目前我们尚不清楚，特斯拉对此也不予评论。不过《财富》上周报道称，特斯拉正在会见中国各个城市的潜在合作者。早在2014年，首席执行官伊隆•马斯克就表示，公司可能会在2017年或2018年前后开始在中国当地制造汽车。

如果不建立合资企业，特斯拉在中国的销量迟早会因为更高的成本遭遇瓶颈。不过即便最密切关注特斯拉的分析师也无法预测瓶颈在何处。

而特斯拉在第一季度销量的迅猛增长显示，至少公司还远远没有达到这个瓶颈。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

In early March, Tesla surprised everyone when it said it had just sold $1 billion worth of vehicles in China in 2016.

Until then, the narrative surrounding Tesla in China was that the company just didn’t get it. Because of high tariffs and taxes, Tesla’s Model S and Model X cost 50% more in the country than elsewhere, meaning Tesla would remain a bit player in the world’s largest market for cars. One analyst declared Elon Musk would reach Mars before cracking China.

Tesla’s sales disclosure last year created a new narrative that Tesla might be on the path to turning China into a thriving market. And new first quarter data of Tesla’s China imports suggest that Tesla kept up its blazing growth.

Tesla imported 4,799 Model S and Model X SUVs into China in the first three months of this year, 350% more than the first quarter of 2016, according to data from JL Warren Capital, a New York-based researcher. If Tesla keeps up the pace throughout this year, the number of imports would nearly double its total last year. But since Tesla sales have increased towards the end of the calendar year in the country, JL Warren Capital’s data shows, Tesla is more likely to more than double last year’s sales.

China will likely become much more important to Tesla this year. Last year's $1 billion in China sales composed about 15% of the company’s total; China revenue might reach $2 billion this year, if it doubles along with car sales, as Tesla’s total company revenue reaches $11.5 billion, analysts predict.

The latest first quarter data track imports, not end sales to buyers. But Tesla sells about as many cars as it imports in China. The California company keeps almost no inventory in the country. When Chinese buyers customize their car on Tesla’s website, choosing five, six or seven seats in the Model X SUV and whether to go for the big HEPA air filter, Tesla assembles the vehicle in the U.S. before shipping it over. Four months later, the Chinese buyer has her car.

The first quarter sales boomlet may lead Tesla investors to wonder what happens when Tesla builds cars in China under a joint venture with a local Chinese company and can avoid a 25% tariff and 17% value-added tax, while at the same time making its cars available for government subsidies, which today cut the buyer's cost of some Chinese electric cars by 35%. Those central and local government subsidies are set to be phased out by 2020.

The timing of a joint venture is unknown and Tesla won’t comment. But as Fortune reported last week, Tesla is in the midst of meeting potential partners from different Chinese cities, according to a high-level official from China's auto lobby. Back in 2014, CEO Elon Musk said the company would begin building cars locally in China around 2017 or 2018.

Without a joint venture, Tesla’s sales in China face a ceiling because of their higher costs. Not even the closest-watching analysts can predict what that number is.

But as Tesla’s fast growing first quarter sales attest, for now the company is far from reaching it.