中美新贸易协定很重要，但并非特朗普政府所说的那么重要

对于新的中美贸易协定，美国商务部长威尔伯•罗斯在称赞其伟大时说得有点儿过了。

“完成这项工作可以说是个巨大成就，”罗斯这样描述涉及美国牛肉和液化天然气对华出口的贸易方案，“它将超过中美整个贸易史上的所有成果。”

1972年美国总统理查德•尼克松访华结束了两国此前20年的冰冻期，并为美国最重要的贸易关系奠定了基础，考虑到这些历史，新的中美贸易协定将是一项艰难任务。去年中美商品贸易总货值接近5790亿美元，在美国外贸总额中的比重接近六分之一。

除了向中国出口牛肉和液化天然气，此项协定还会降低长期以来为美国金融公司设置的在华经营门槛，同时允许美国从中国进口熟制禽肉，美国还将派代表参加在中国召开的一带一路论坛。

罗斯并未说明他在上周四介绍情况时的用词究竟有何含义。但贸易专家对此项协定的规模提出了质疑，而其中10项有限共识则被列为中美两大经济体之间的结构性转变。

另一项结构性转变是2001年中国加入世界贸易组织。经济学家大卫•奥特尔、大卫•多恩和戈登•汉森的研究显示，入世后中国对美出口激增，给美国经济带来了冲击，并造成了逾100万美国制造业工人失业。唐纳德•特朗普总统已将消除对华贸易逆差作为他的首要政策目标之一。去年美国对中国的贸易逆差为3470亿美元。

贸易专家迅速指出，此项协定主要集中在农产品、能源和金融产品领域，和美国制造业无关，而长期以来美国制造业一直是中美贸易关系紧张的根源。

布鲁金斯学会高级研究员、美国财政部前官员杜大伟说：“这些措施很一般，本身不会对美国经济产生多大影响。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

Heralding a new U.S.-China trade agreement, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross puffed a bit too hard in describing its greatness.

"It was pretty much a Herculean accomplishment to get this done," Ross said in describing a trade plan involving U.S. beef and liquefied natural gas exports to China. "This is more than has been done in the whole history of U.S.-China relations on trade."

That would be a tall order, given a history that encompasses President Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China, which ended a two-decade freeze between the two countries and laid the groundwork for the United States' largest trading relationship. U.S.-China exchanges of goods last year totaled nearly $579 billion, nearly one-sixth of all U.S. trade.

In addition to its provisions on beef and liquefied natural gas, the trade deal lowers long-standing barriers on the operation of U.S. financial firms in China, allows the import of cooked poultry from China, and will send U.S. delegates to a Chinese forum on building infrastructure in Asia and Europe.

Ross declined to say exactly what he meant by his characterization at a Thursday briefing. But trade experts questioned its magnitude, and the limited agreement on 10 items joins a list of tectonic shifts between the world's two largest economies.

Another is China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, an event that caused a surge in Chinese exports to the United States and created an economic shock that caused the loss of more than 1 million factory jobs, according to research by economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson. President Donald Trump has made closing the U.S. gap with China—it totaled $347 billion last year—one of his major policy goals.

Trade experts were quick to point out that the agreement, which largely focuses on agricultural goods, energy and financial products, does nothing for U.S. manufacturers, long a source of tension in the relationship with China.

"These are modest moves which by themselves will not have much effect on the U.S. economy," said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury Department official.