关于特朗普的新预算草案，你需要知道的6件事

本周二，白宫首次批露了2018财年（从2017年10月1日起，到2018年9月30日止）的预算草案。该草案的标题为“为美国的伟大奠定新的基础”。该预算草案计划在2027年前削减3.6万亿美元的政府支出，从而实现预算的收支平衡，同时将美国的年经济增长率提高至3%。

美国行政管理和预算局局长米克·马尔瓦尼本周一在新闻吹风会上对记者表示：“这是很长时间以来，美国政府第一次站在纳税人的视角编写预算。”

当然，虽然白宫的这份预算草案已经“钦定”了，但这并不等于它就会自动变成法律——情况远非如此。国会的参众两院也都有自己的预算委员会，他们也都会编写自己的预算草案，然后排队等国会审批。经过国会审批同意的草案也只能叫做决议，而不是法律。国会会在这个决议的基础上推动立法，而法律通过与否，则不是总统的签字能说了算的了。

本周六，特朗普政府的官员就要携带这份草案去国会山了。关于这份“白宫钦定版”的预算草案，有六件事是你应该知道的。

该预算要求提供六星期的带薪育儿假

该草案提议，为新为人父母的爸爸妈妈们（包括养父母们）提供6周的带薪育儿假，并建议各州制定自己的“最适合其劳动力市场和经济状况”的育儿假政策。

据白宫透露，这项倡议是由“第一女儿”伊万卡·特朗普提出的。伊万卡成立了一个跨部门的工作小组来研究一系列问题，这个问题也是其中之一。不过这个倡议很可能在国会上遭到两党的共同反对。首先，强制带薪假的话题很少会在共和党议员中获得支持。而一些民主党人则表示这个计划是不充分的。

康乃狄克州民主党议员罗莎·德劳罗表示：“对于刻苦工作的美国人来说，政府的这项计划没有通盘地考虑这个问题的解决方法。我们需要的是这样的一项政策：它所提供的带薪假，不仅要考虑到刚出生或收养的小孩，也要考虑到照顾重病或受伤的家人的需要——这其中也包括父母和孩子。另外它也应该考虑到劳动者自己遭遇健康问题，或是军婚家庭等情况。”

从对赤字的预期看，奥巴马医改或被废止，而税收改革可能将通过

马尔内尼说，能够减少赤字的最大因素，在于前总统奥巴马的医改法能否被废止。不过共和党自己提出的《美国医保法案》（American Health Care Act）也只是在众议院获得了险胜，而且可以说很不受欢迎。就连参议院里的共和党议员也不急着对它投票，而是任由它慢慢地在那里走法律流程。

至于众议院通过的这版《美国医保法案》会带来哪些影响，国会预算局至今没有发布它的预测，不过有关预测本周三就将发布。因此，它到底能让赤字下降多少，以及奥巴马医改究竟是不是会被废除，可能到时就能看出端倪了。

穆尔瓦尼还表示，新预算草案还考虑到了税改的因素。不过虽然特朗普政府的官员和国会的共和党领导人们纷纷表示，税改将成为美国立法的优先要务，然而税改却始终是雷声大雨点小。华盛顿的关注点似乎都被特朗普解雇联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科梅这个爆炸性新闻吸引去了。

医疗补助可能将被大幅削减

根据白宫的预算草案，只要各州认为合适，就可以通过固定拨款的方式，拿到医疗补助计划的放款控制权。这与目前版本的《美国医保法案》保持了一致。据国会预算局估算，这最终将使美国医疗补助计划的支出被削减8800亿美元。

该预算草案还提出，政府要禁止向任何提供堕胎和计划生育服务的组织拨款。马尔瓦尼表示，如果《美国医保法案》正式形成法律，政府将切断对计划生育组织的拨款——因为《美国医保法案》里有一条就是这样规定的。

但是，该提案不包括削减核心的社会保障福利和联邦医疗保险。

对食品券等福利计划的限制可能会更加严格

该预算草案建议收紧对食品券等社会福利计划的限制，以增加劳动力市场中的劳动者人数和促进经济发展。这个“补充营养援助项目”（SNAP）有个更广为人知的名称——食品券。该项目最多可能被砍掉1930亿美元。

马尔瓦尼表表示：“我们得让人们去工作。如果你靠食品券度日，你的身体又很健康，那么我们就得让你去工作。如果你身体没有残疾，却靠领残疾保险度日，那我们也得让你去工作。我们需要大家都朝着同一个方向前进。”

花更多的钱用于边境安全

白宫的这份预算草案计划为国土安全部拨款441亿美元，其中有26亿美元将用于边界的基础设施和相关技术，包括特朗普在大选期间多次承诺要修建的美墨边境墙。

这笔钱估计将是国会里争议最大的部分了。由于国内两党的主流意见都反对修墙，因而两党此前已经在国会达成了共识，至少在2017财年的剩余时间里，特朗普是拿不到修长城的钱了。

增加军费

在2018年的预算草案中，特朗普要求国会拨款540亿美元用于国防开支，其中520亿美元由国防部分配。美军将用这笔钱增兵56,400人，以及购买战斗机和舰艇等武器装备。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The White House on Tuesday will release its budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Titled "A New Foundation for American Greatness," the budget calls for $3.6 trillion in spending reductions to balance the budget by 2027 and lift annual economic growth to 3%.

"This is the first time in a long time an administration has written a budget through the eyes of the people actually paying the taxes," Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney told reporters Monday during a briefing.

Of course, this doesn't mean the budget the White House proposes automatically becomes law — far from it. The budget committees in each chamber of Congress still have to write their own blueprints, which Congress will have to approve. And the budget that Congress passes is a resolution, not a law — it is the framework under which Congress will work to pass legislation, and doesn't require the President's signature.

Here are six things to know about the new version of the White House budget, which members of the Trump Administration will take to Capitol Hill to promote this week.

The budget calls for six weeks of paid family leave

The budget proposes six weeks of paid family leave for new mothers and fathers, including adoptive parents, and suggests states establish their own parental leave policies "most appropriate for their workforce and economy."

The measure was orchestrated by First Daughter Ivanka Trump, according to the White House, who created an interagency working group for a variety of issues, including this one. The proposal is likely to face stiff opposition in Congress on both sides of the aisle. Mandated paid family leave rarely garners support among Republican lawmakers, and some Democrats are already arguing the plan is insufficient.

"The Administration’s plan does not address the issue in the comprehensive way that is needed for hard working Americans," Connecticut Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro said. “We need a policy that includes paid time off to care for a seriously ill or injured family member, which includes parents and children, as well as for workers who themselves have a serious health issue and for military families — not just for the birth or adoption of a child."

Its rosy deficit projections assume Obamacare will be repealed and tax reform will pass

Mulvaney said the biggest factor in decreasing the deficit will be the repeal of former President Barack Obama's health care reform law. But the Republican repeal law, the American Health Care Act, has only passed narrowly the House, it remains hugely unpopular, and Senate Republicans have been in no rush to bring it to a vote in the upper chamber, content to go through their own legislative process.

The Congressional Budget Office has not even released its projections for the impact that the House-passed version of the AHCA would have — it is slated to do so on Wednesday. So the projections for deficit reduction could change based on how the health care debate unfolds, and whether or not Obamacare actually gets repealed.

Mulvaney also said a deficit-neutral tax reform was factored in. But even as Trump Administration officials and Republican leaders in Congress have identified tax reform as a key legislative priority, little progress has been made amid chaos in Washington over Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey and its aftermath.

Medicaid could be in for some big cuts

Under the White House budget, states would assume control for the provision of Medicaid through block grants they could distribute as they see fit. This is aligned with the current version of the American Healthcare Act, which the CBO estimates will ultimately cut Medicaid by $880 billion.

The budget also prohibits any funding for groups that provide abortions, including Planned Parenthood. Mulvaney said the budget defunds Planned Parenthood on the assumption that the American Healthcare Act — which has a provision to defund the organization — will become law.

But the proposal does not include any cuts to core Social Security benefits and Medicare.

Restrictions on welfare programs like food stamps could get tighter

The budget will recommend tightening restrictions on eligibility for assistance programs — like food stamps — in an effort to increase the number of people in the workforce and grow the economy. The SNAP program better known as food stamps is up for a $193 billion cut.

"We need people to go to work," Mulvaney said. "If you're on food stamps and you're able bodied we need you to go to work. If you're on disability insurance and you're not supposed to be — you're not truly disabled — we need you to go to work. We need everybody pulling in the same direction.

The budget has more money for border security

The White House budget would allocate $44.1 billion for the Department of Homeland Security, $2.6 billion of which would go toward border infrastructure and technology, including the border wall Trump repeatedly promised to build during the campaign.

This will likely be one of the more contentious parts of the budget hashed out in Congress. Legislation signed authorizing spending through the rest of the 2017 fiscal year excluded funding for a border wall after the measure encountered opposition on both sides of the aisle.

And more money for the military

Trump is requesting $54 billion for defense spending in his 2018 budget, $52 billion of which would go toward the Department of Defense. The spending would go toward growing military ranks by 56,400 service members, and investing in fighter planes and ships.