自动化、机器人和失业或让全民基本收入成为现实

几位麻省理工学者认为，自动化的崛起及其引发的失业可能迫使美国联邦政府为全体民众提供一定的收入保障，但这可能要等几年，甚至是几十年。

这种经济保障通常被称为全民基本收入，硅谷的很大一部分区域以及其他一些科技产业聚集地一直都对此表示欢迎，部分原因是为了缓解焦虑，不让人们担心当地科技的发展会断了他们的生计。

如果付诸实施，全民基本收入将同等覆盖所有公民，理论上可为那些几乎没有可靠收入的人提供基本经济保障。特斯拉汽车和太空探索技术公司创始人埃隆·穆斯克等支持者认为，全民基本收入比目前的福利制度更有效，而且不那么官僚。

但对于什么时候需要此项制度的问题，人们众说纷纭。麻省理工数字经济项目联合负责人安德鲁·迈克菲本周三在麻省理工斯隆商学院的首席信息官座谈会上说：“我们离最高就业水平还很远。我们离经济正常运转所需的平稳工作量也很远。”

他的观点是：“考虑后工作时代的条件还极不成熟。”

该项目另一位负责人埃里克·布林约尔松赞同迈克菲的观点：“并不缺乏只有人才能胜任的工作。我们进步的非常、非常快，但进入那样的时代还需要几十年。”但布林约尔松也指出，人们得愿意接受再培训，从而成为有市场而且活跃的劳动者。

有人认为机器人或者自动化将取代数百万人类劳动者，这种观点一直是人们焦虑的源泉。正如媒体一直报道的那样，自动化正在影响多种职业，包括估计约有180万美国人从事的卡车司机工作以及飞机驾驶员、律师助理和外科医生。

乐观者认为，虽然低端工作将实现自动化，但人们会转移到更高端、更需要技术的工作上。几位发言人提到，需要有相关工作经验的人来培训机器人，来为人工智能工具编程。但这真的是一个长期解决方案吗？

自动驾驶专业公司OTTO Motors联合创始人瑞恩·加里皮就不这么想（OTTO Motors的总部设在加拿大安大略省基奇纳市，并非优步收购的自动驾驶卡车公司OTTO）。

加里皮说：“从事货运的人或许可以去保养机器人或管理车队，但我觉得这不会让就业机会出现净增。”他的观点是，让世界保持运转所需的劳动者将变少，因此确实需要社会事业来促进就业。

加里皮指出：“当然，有些从事货运的人会成为机器人保养员或者车队经理，但我不认为就业机会将出现净增长。”在他看来，随着时间推移，技术会越来越快地让更多工作变得过时。

他说：“卡车司机无法承担重新学习的成本。几十年后90%的卡车驾驶工作都会消失是个合理假设。”

这有可能意味着在较短时间里或许就会有160万卡车司机需要全民基本收入。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

The rise of automation and resulting job losses could force the federal government to guarantee some income for everyone, but that won't happen for years or even decades, according to some academics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This sort of payment, usually referred to as Universal Basic Income (UBI), has been embraced by much of Silicon Valley and other tech enclaves, in part to offset anxiety that the technology built in these places is killing off people's livelihoods.

UBI, if enacted, would be a flat payment to every citizen that would, in theory, act as a basic safety net for those who have little. Proponents, like Tesla (tsla, +2.07%) and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, have argued such payments would be more efficient and less bureaucratic than current welfare programs.

But opinions vary as to when such a program will be needed. "We are nowhere near peak employment," said Andrew McAfee, co-director of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, while speaking Wednesday at the MIT Sloan CIO Symposium. "We are nowhere near a plateau in how much work our economy requires to function."

His view: "Thinking of a post-work world is incredibly premature."

His colleague, Erik Brynjolfsson, who is director of the initiative, agreed: "There is no shortage of work that only people can do. We are moving very, very fast, but it's decades before we get to that kind of world." But, Brynjolfsson continued, people need to be willing to re-train themselves as needed and to be engaged.

The notion that robots or automation will take on the jobs of millions of people is a constant nagging source of anxiety. As has been reported, jobs ranging from truck drivers—of which there are an estimated 1.8 million in the U.S.— to airline pilots to paralegals to surgeons are already being affected by automation.

Optimists say that while automation will subsume lower-end jobs, people will migrate to higher-level, more skilled work. Several speakers mentioned the need for people with experience in their jobs to train robots and to program artificial intelligence tools. But is that really a long-term solution?

Ryan Gariepy, co-founder of OTTO Motors a specialist in automated driving, doesn't think so. (This company, based in Kitchener, Ontario, is not the same as OTTO, the self-driving car specialist purchased by Uber.)

"People who move materials around may become robot maintainers or fleet managers, but I don't think we'll see net new job creation," Gariepy said. His view is that fewer workers will be needed to keep the world moving, and thus, there will be a real need for a boost from social programs.

"Sure, some people who move materials around will become robot maintainers or fleet managers, but I don't think we'll see net new job creation," Gariepy said." Technology, in his view, will make more jobs obsolete faster and faster as time goes by.

"Truck drivers cannot afford to go back to school. It's reasonable to assume that 90% of those jobs will disappear within a generation," Gariepy said.

That could mean 1.6 million truck drivers may need universal basic income in relatively short order.