债务继续攀升，穆迪警告再次下调中国评级

日前，穆迪投资者服务将中国主权信用评级下调一个等级，降至“A1”。该机构预计，作为全球第二大经济体，今后几年中国的金融实力将变弱，原因是增长放缓以及债务不断上升。

中国政府对穆迪的决定表示强烈不满，称此举基于不恰当的方法，夸大了中国经济面对的困难，并且低估了中国政府为改革付出的努力。

对于这样的评价，穆迪高管玛丽•迪伦上周五回应说，为了控制债务快速增长带来的风险，中国政府制定了“宏大改革方案”，这一直让穆迪感到鼓舞。

迪伦称，穆迪认为这样的改革或许能降低中国的债务增速，但中国的债务规模不会急剧下降，而且中国的改革也不足以遏制债务的增长。

作为穆迪主权风险部副董事总经理，迪伦在网络直播中做出了上述表示。

穆迪信用策略和标准部副总裁李秀军也参与了此次网络直播，她说如果有迹象表明中国债务增长的速度超过了穆迪的预期，中国或许就不能再获得“A1”评级。

李秀军说：“如果今后中国的结构性改革可以更有效地防止其负债率上升，而且不会在银行和影子银行领域引发更大风险，那就会对中国的评级产生积极影响。”

但她也指出：“如果有迹象表明中国的债务将继续上升，而且增速超过我们的预期，进而造成资本严重错配，则中期经济增长就会继续承压，并对主权评级产生不利影响。”

“中国或许无法再达到A1评级的要求。”

李秀军未给出具体债务水平目标，也未说明今后进行评估的时间表。

政府主导的促增长措施一直是近年来中国经济增长的主要动力，但也一直伴随着信贷的迅猛上升，进而产生了大量债务。目前中国的债务总额接近GDP的三倍。

迪伦说：“中国政府实施这些政策以及化解部分违约风险的财力和政策能力是A1评级非常重要的支持因素。A1是我们评级体系中的第五个等级，我们认为中国此项评级的前景很稳定。”

中国政府已经表示，将采取措施来降低债务水平，包括债转股、国企混合所有制改革、削减过剩产能以及最近加强对影子银行的监管。

但政府部门也迫切希望实现官方经济增长目标，而且迄今为止一直行事谨慎，特别是在今年晚些时候要进行领导层更迭的情况下。

迪伦指出，虽然穆迪预计今后几年中国经济增速将从去年的6.7%降至5%左右，但中国经济仍将很有活力，硬着陆的可能性很小。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

The comments came days after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's sovereign ratings on Wednesday by one notch to A1, saying it expects the financial strength of the world's second-largest economy will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.

China has strongly criticized Moody's decision, saying it was based on inappropriate methodology, exaggerating difficulties facing the economy and underestimating the government's reform efforts.

In response to those comments, senior Moody's official Marie Diron said on Friday that the ratings agency has been encouraged by the "vast reform agenda" undertaken by the Chinese authorities to contain risks from a rapid buildup in debt.

Moody's believes that the reforms may slow the pace at which debt is building up, but China's debt will not drop dramatically and it will not be enough to arrest rising debt, Diron said.

Diron, associate managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, made the comments in a webcast.

China may no longer get an A1 rating if there are signs that debt is growing at a pace that exceeds Moody's expectations, Li Xiujun, vice president of credit strategy and standards at the ratings agency, said in the same webcast.

"If in the future China's structural reforms can prevent its leverage from rising more effectively without increasing risks in the banking and shadow banking sector, then it will have a positive impact on China's rating," Li said.

But Li added: "If there are signs that China's debt will keep rising and the rate of growth is beyond our expectations, leading to serious capital misallocation, then it will continue to weigh on economic growth in the medium term and impact the sovereign rating negatively."

"China may no longer suit the requirement of A1 rating."

Li did not give a specific target for debt levels nor timeframe for further assessments.

Government-led stimulus has been a major driver of China's economic growth over recent years, but has also been accompanied by runaway credit growth that has created a mountain of debt - now standing at nearly 300 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

"The financial and policy capacity that the Chinese government has to implement such measures and to mitigate some of the default risks is a very important element in supporting the rating at A1, which is the fifth highest rating in our tier, and our view that the outlook of that rating level is stable," Diron said.

China has vowed to lower its debt level by rolling out measures such as debt-to-equity swaps, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) mixed-ownership reforms, reduction of excess capacity, and more recently regulatory tightening in the shadow banking sector.

But authorities are also keen to meet official economic growth targets, and moves so far have been cautious, especially heading into a key political leadership reshuffle later this year.

While Moody's expects China's growth to slow to around 5 percent in coming years, from 6.7 percent last year, the economy will remain robust, and the likelihood of a hard landing is slim, Diron said.