没有特朗普，欧洲照样过

巴黎——一位年纪轻轻尚未上任的政客竟在视频中公然谴责全球最大国家的首脑，而且对方是年纪几乎大自己一倍，言语之间还很不客气。这条视频迅速火遍全球。

今年3月这条视频发布在YouTube上，正竞选法国总统的埃马纽埃尔•马克龙直接对话“美国从事气候变化的研究者、企业家和工程师们”，表示他坚决反对唐纳德•特朗普对气候变化的态度。马克龙在视频中承诺，如果他成功当选法国总统，将对环境研究投入大笔资金，而且将敞开资源欢迎感兴趣的美国专业人士去法国继续工作，那里环境更友好，资助也更多。

“欢迎来法国，”他用流利的英语表示。“非常欢迎。我们希望有更多人研究气候变化、能源、可再生能源和新科技等。”

目前尚无证据表明有很多美国企业家、工程师和气候科学家搬离美国前往法国。但三个月后，年仅39岁的马克龙已成自拿破仑以来法国最年轻总统，他说的话自然也越发重要。从过去十天来看，欧盟与美国之间的裂痕已逐渐清晰。

欧洲时间上周四晚，随着特朗普宣布美国将退出巴黎协议，也即2015年签订的巴黎气候变化协议，双方的裂痕达到顶峰。世界上几乎所有国家——除了尼加拉瓜和叙利亚，全都签署了巴黎协议，承诺削减碳排放。

就在特朗普宣布退出巴黎协议几分钟后，马克龙总统给特朗普打了一通5分钟的电话，告诉他“巴黎协定里任何条款都不能修改，”周四晚马克龙一位新闻发言人在短信中告诉《财富》杂志。马克龙还表示，“美国跟法国可以继续合作，但气候问题没得谈。”

据欧洲政界观察家介绍，其实早在特朗普表态两周前，作为美国总统第一次造访欧洲时，欧洲领导人对待美国的态度就已发生变化。

跨大西洋纠纷

欧洲政界观察家表示，当时欧洲领袖跟美国高层官员的讨论没法顺利进行。双方分歧不只在气候变化方面，诸如军费、多边贸易协定和移民等领域的长期协议也都有问题。就在上周，趾高气昂的特朗普还在布鲁塞尔指责北约首脑在军事合作上投入不够，去年竞选时他还曾表示以为与欧洲的军事结盟已经“散了”。没过几天，G7峰会在意大利西西里岛举行，特朗普就宣布拒绝支持全球气候协议，还公然批评德国对美国贸易顺差太高，“非常恶劣”。

欧美之间的分歧可不只导致政界震动，对大西洋两岸的商业合作也会造成深远的影响。

即便特朗普飞回国回白宫，事情的余波也仍在欧洲发酵。拥有5亿庞大人口的欧洲是全球最大的市场，如今美国领袖不在友好，战略伙伴关系可能重新调整。上周日德国总理默克尔在巴伐利亚告诉人们，“从某种程度上说可以完全依赖旁人的时代已经结束”，过去几十年跟美国之间坚定的伙伴关系出现巨大转折。马克龙发言人表示，周四晚特朗普宣布退出气候协定后，默克尔跟马克龙迅速通了电话，“确认了将继续遵守巴黎协定，并在国际上维护协定的决心。”

“我们是认真的，”常驻布鲁塞尔的欧洲政策研究中心高级研究员雅克•佩克曼斯表示。“现在我们只能靠自己，因为他（特朗普）根本靠不住，”周四他告诉《财富》。“之前我们依赖的合作如今打破了。”

对商业界来说，合作关系破裂可能导致现实影响，周五和周六在布鲁塞尔和巴黎举行的不少活动中此事都会成为主要话题。

欧洲看向东方

布鲁塞尔举办的一场欧盟-中国的峰会上，欧盟28个成员国首脑与中国总理李克强达成一致，将促进签署贸易协定，在交通和能源等领域开展新技术合作。双方还计划通过欧洲与中国城市战略合作，共同缓解全球气候变化。

欧盟和中方官员都相信，双方加强合作不仅有利于环保，也能促进商业发展，这与特朗普周四的态度形成鲜明对比，特朗普指称巴黎气候协议允许印度等新兴国家使用低价煤却禁止美国使用，“对美国极不公平”。

巴黎协定可能促进欧洲与中国之间巨大的贸易交流。近年来双方商业合作激增；欧盟官方数据显示，每日双边贸易额已达14亿欧元（约合15.7亿美元）。周四还发布了一份欧盟与中国官方为周五峰会拟定的联合声明，其中写道“解决气候变化并改革能源系统可以极大促进就业、增加投资机会并推动经济增长。”

如今欧盟与中国和合作加速前进，尽管周四特朗普宣布将“就新协议开展谈判”，而且新协议会“远比巴黎协议好”。

佩克曼斯表示上周在上海见了很多商界领导，人人都对巴黎气候协议后续的经济合作非常有兴趣。他们认为协定涉及全球，意味着巨大的机会，尤其在太阳能面板制造和出口等领域，如今在中国这一行业已经价值数百亿美元。

协议的艺术

中国目前是全世界最大的污染国，占了碳排放量约20%。讽刺的是，美国与欧洲关系紧张却将中国推向领导之位，填补特朗普留下的空白。“欧盟跟中国正推广排除美国的多边主义理念，”佩克曼斯表示，又补充说欧美关系恶化让他始料未及。“我都不敢相信这是真的，”他说。

不过特朗普欧洲之行后，想借机跟欧盟领导人加强联系的大国并非只有中国。印度也一样：印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪周三就在德国跟默克尔商讨了贸易协定，随后在共同出席的发布会上一直宣扬两国友好，“我们两国简直是绝配。”

周六轮到马克龙接待莫迪，午宴安排在华丽的爱丽舍宫。一周前马克龙刚在更豪华的凡尔赛宫招待了俄罗斯总统普京一顿工作午宴。刚刚上任三周，马克龙已经迅速展现强大的外交能力，在欧盟积极跟新兴市场打造新型合作关系的当下，这一能力可能相当重要。

印度是个关键市场，联合国预计十年内印度将取代中国成为全世界人口最多的国家。过去印度军方一直跟俄罗斯国防承包商合作，法国正争取分一杯羹。在谈的项目中包括出售六艘法国DCNS集团制造的鮋鱼级潜艇。而且5月15日马克龙在爱丽舍宫的小型仪式上宣誓时，达索飞机制造公司宣布正与印度商谈出售16架“阵风”战斗机，全由法国制造。去年该公司已经与印度签署协议出售36架“阵风”战斗机，涉及金额达90亿美元。“印度的需求巨大，”达索公司首席执行官埃里克•特拉皮耶在签约前表示。

周六的午宴是马克龙跟印度领导人第一次会见，他肯定也会谈到最关注的问题：气候变化。马克龙是2015年12月在巴黎签订的全球气候协议坚定支持者，所以如果莫迪能承诺控制碳排放很关键，尤其赶上美国完全不靠谱。3月7日马克龙赢得选举后，莫迪立刻发推特称“非常期待与马克龙密切合作”

现在是莫迪践行承诺的时候了。虽然莫迪曾允诺未来十年将大力改善太阳能基础设施建设，但印度仍是全世界最大的煤炭消费国，马克龙很可能会明确提出希望莫迪说到做到。如果莫迪食言，没准马克龙又会在YouTube上发段视频，邀请印度的工程师和企业家抛家弃国搬到法国去。(财富中文网)

译者：Pessy

审稿：夏林

PARIS—The tone could hardly have been more blunt: A young, untested politician upbraiding the leader of the world's biggest economy, nearly twice his age, in a video message that zipped across the world.

Published to YouTube last March, Emmanuel Macron, then vying to be the President of France, spoke directly to "American researchers, entrepreneurs, engineers working on climate change," telling them that he stood in stark opposition to President Donald Trump over a crucial issue: climate change. If he won France's presidential election, Macron promised them, he would pour money into environmental research and throw open the country's resources to Americans looking for friendlier terrain and more funding for their work.

"Please come to France," he told them in fluent English. "You're welcome. We want people working on climate change, energy, renewables, and new technologies."

So far, there is no sign that numbers of American entrepreneurs, engineers, and climate scientists are upping stakes and moving to France. But three months on, the video message from 39-year-old President Macron—now the youngest French leader since Napoleon—sounds more relevant than ever, offering a foretaste of the deep divisions between the European Union and the U.S. that surged to the surface in the last 10 days.

Those sentiments reached a pinnacle on Thursday night (Europe time) with Trump's announcement he would pull the U.S. out of the Paris accord, also known as the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, which virtually every country—barring Nicaragua and Syria—has signed, committing themselves to cutting carbon emissions.

Within minutes of Trump's withdrawal from the Paris accord, President Macron called Trump, telling him in a five-minute call "that nothing was renegotiable in the Paris accord," a Macron spokesman told Fortune in a text message late Thursday night. "The U.S. and France will continue working together, but not on the subject of climate."

The turning point for European leaders, say political observers on the continent, unfolded two weeks before Thursday's Rose Garden announcement, during Trump's first trip to the continent as President.

Transatlantic tiffs

There, E.U. leaders appeared to hit a brick wall in their talks with him and top U.S. officials, according to European political observers. The cleavage goes far beyond climate change. Issues at stake include long-standing agreements over military spending, multilateral trade deals, and immigration. In Europe last month, a defiant Trump excoriated NATO leaders in Brussels for not spending enough on the military alliance, which he had deemed "obsolete" during his presidential campaign last year. Days later, at the G-7 summit in Sicily, Trump refused to back the global climate accord and lashed out at Germany for its "very bad" trade surplus with the U.S.

The tensions could have far-reaching effects on political relationships as well as business opportunities on both sides of the Atlantic.

Even as Trump flew home and settled back into the White House, the aftertaste has lingered in Europe. The E.U.—the world's biggest market, with 500 million people—may realign its relationships without a friendly U.S. leader. Last Sunday German Chancellor Angela Merkel told an audience in Bavaria that "the times when we could completely rely on others are to an extent over"—a dramatic shift from decades of an unquestioned bond with the U.S. According to a Macron spokesman, Merkel and Macron spoke by phone Thursday night, shortly after Trump's withdrawal from the climate deal, "confirming their common engagement and resolve to put in place the Paris accord and defend it on the international scene."

"This is serious for us," says Jacques Pelkmans, senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "We will now have to take care of ourselves, because he [Trump] is impossible to deal with," he told Fortune on Thursday. "It breaks a bond we depend on a lot."

For businesses, the fraught relationship could have real-life consequences, some of which will come into much sharper focus on Friday and Saturday during events in Brussels and Paris.

Europe looks east

At a major E.U.-China summit in Brussels, the bloc's 28 leaders and China's president Li Keqiang are set to agree on boosting trade deals and cooperation on new technologies in sectors such as transportation and power. They also plan to work together on slowing global climate change through tactics including strategic collaboration between European and Chinese cities.

E.U. and Chinese officials believe the pact is good not only for the environment but for business, too—a striking contrast to Trump's statement on Thursday that the Paris climate accord was "very unfair at the highest level to the United States" by allowing emerging countries like India to continue using cheap coal as its use is restricted in the U.S.

The Paris accord offers the prospects of huge new trade to Europe and China. Business ties between the partners have skyrocketed in recent years; bilateral trade is now worth about €1.4 billion (or about $1.57 billion) per day, according to the E.U.'s official statistics. An early version of a joint statement drafted by E.U. and Chinese officials for Friday's summit in Brussels, released on Thursday, says that "tackling climate change and reforming our energy systems are significant drivers of job creation, investment opportunities, and economic growth."

That process appears to be galloping forward, despite Trump's announcement on Thursday that he wanted to "negotiate a new deal," which will be "much better than the Paris accord."

Pelkmans says he met business leaders in Shanghai last week and was struck by their keen interest in making economic deals off the Paris climate agreement. The leaders see its global targets as prized opportunities for businesses like solar-panel manufacturing and exports—an industry now worth tens of billions of dollars to China.

The art of the deal

Ironically, the tensions between the U.S. and Europe positions China—the world's biggest polluter, accounting for about 20% of all carbon emissions—to fill the leadership position on climate change left by Trump. "The E.U. and China now preach multinationalism without the U.S.," Pelkmans says, adding that he is amazed at the downturn in relationships with the U.S. "I cannot believe this has happened," he says.

China is not the only big economic power eyeing a golden moment to strengthen their relationships with E.U. leaders in the wake of Trump's trip to Europe. So too is India: In Germany on Wednesday, India prime minister Narendra Modi discussed trade deals with Merkel, gushing to her in a joint press conference, "We are made for each other."

On Saturday, it will be Macron's turn to host Modi, with a lunch planned in the ornate Elysée Palace. The meal comes just one week after Macron hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin at a working lunch in the even more sumptuous Palace of Versailles. Just three weeks since he was inaugurated, President Macron is rapidly emerging as a masterful diplomat, that could perhaps prove crucial as the E.U. attempted to forge new relationships with emerging markets.

One key market is India, which the U.N. estimates could overtake China as the world's most populous country within the next decade. France is pushing for a slice of India's military business, which has traditionally gone to Russian defense contractors. That includes a deal to sell India six Scorpene submarines, built by France's DCNS Group. And on May 15—just as Macron was inaugurated in a small ceremony in the Elysée—Dassault Aviation revealed it was in talks with India to sell about 16 Rafale fighter jets, all French-built. That would add to the company's huge $9 billion deal it signed last year to sell India 36 Rafale jets. "India's requirements are enormous," Dassault CEO Eric Trappier said in the wake of the announcement.

When Macron meets Modi for lunch on Saturday for his first meeting with the Indian leader, he will also certainly zoom in an issue close to his heart: climate change. For Macron, a fierce defender of the global climate deal inked in the French capital in December 2015, Modi's commitment to reining in carbon emissions is crucial—especially now that the U.S. has proved an unreliable partner on the issue. Immediately after Macron's victory on March 7, Modi tweeted that he "looked forward to working closely" with him.

Now is Modi's moment to make good on that. India is one of the world's biggest consumers of coal, and although the prime minister has vowed to ramp up the country's solar power infrastructure within the next decade, Macron will likely make it clear he expects Modi to stick to his word. If not, he could find Macron posting another YouTube video, inviting India's engineers and entrepreneurs to ditch their country and move to France.