气候变化如何影响我们的生活

本周早些时候，从菲尼克斯出发的近50架航班被取消。当地预报的气温高达120度，超过了118度的飞机最高工作温度。

我们很难不将此次航班延误与气候变化联系起来 — 科学家估计，全球总体温度比工业化之前升高了1.8度。从2014年以来，全球温度屡创新高，去年成为史上最热的一年。

夏威夷大学马诺阿分校（University of Hawaii at Manoa）的地理学副教授卡米洛•莫拉表示，如果全球继续变暖，这种航班延误的情况将变得更常见。这才只是开始。

他预测，在下个世纪，全球变暖将对美国人的日常生活带来下列影响。

在夏季，美国多数地区的居民将只能待在室内。

据莫拉参与的一项研究显示，如果不减少碳排放，到2100年，纽约市每年出现致人死亡的高温潮湿天气的天数将达到约50天（目前仅有2天）。而在奥兰多和休斯顿等城市，整个夏天都将处在这种天气状况下，长时间待在户外将变得不安全。

莫拉表示：“我们将变成困在自己房子里的囚徒。”

停电也将是致命的。

在未来的酷热天气里，空调将成为美国许多城市名副其实的救生设备。停电将不止是带来不便这么简单，而是会成为国家紧急事件，例如在2003年美国东北部和中西部的停电，使5,000万人受到影响。（2003年席卷欧洲的高温潮湿天气，造成了数万人死亡。）

公路和铁轨会在高温下融化变形。

在炽热的阳光下，沥青会像巧克力一样逐渐变软。莫拉表示，随着夏季气温变得日益极端，高速公路会“开始融化”。Road Surface Treatments Association的首席执行官霍华德•罗宾逊告诉BBC，当地表温度超过50摄氏度（122华氏度）时，公路会开始变软。

这种情况之前有过先例； 在2003年肆虐欧洲的热浪中，伦敦一段高速公路就曾经融化（虽然天气预报远低于50摄氏度的切断温度，但公路的表面温度远高于环境温度）。

极端高温还会让铁轨变形。莫拉解释说：“钢材会膨胀，”铁轨会变得更长，对固定轨道的道碴形成更大压力。如果轨道继续膨胀，最终会在压力下变形。

莫拉预测，虽然极端高温会带来不便，但发达国家能够找到应对上述情境的办法。例如，如果温度继续上升，机场可以延长跑道，使飞机即使在更高温度下也可以起飞。

莫拉担心，这些变通的方法，会让我们忽视气候变化的真正危险。如果我们不采取果断措施减少碳排放，后果将是毁灭性的（即使做了，未来也不容乐观。）

掌握资源的人，尤其是第一世界国家的居民，至少在最开始，可以免于受到最严重的影响。但对于发展中国家的数十亿贫困人口而言，残酷的事实已经证明，全球变暖会带来致命的后果（例如，印度去年有超过2,400人死于与高温有关的疾病。）

莫拉表示，不幸的是，人类是一种“容易健忘”的物种。本周早些时候，热浪侵袭美国西南各州，气候变化成为媒体报道的焦点。但“下周，随着热浪消退，每个人又会开始谈论其他话题。”

莫拉呼吁，不要当把头埋在沙子里的鸵鸟，而是应该行动起来，即使你的行动微不足道：“减少消耗。”尽量减少驾车，关闭恒温器，或者减少肉类摄入。

他认为，气候变化与政府政策是密切相关的，但它的产生也是因为“我们使用了太多自己并不需要的东西。如果不把它当做一个问题重视起来，后果将是我们难以承受的。”（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

Earlier this week, nearly 50 flights out of Phoenix were cancelled. At 120 degrees, the temperature forecast exceeded the airline’s 118 degrees maximum operating temperature.

It’s difficult not to connect the delays to climate change—scientists estimate the planet’s overall temperature has increased by 1.8 degrees since preindustrial times. Last year was the hottest on record, followed by 2015, followed by 2014.

As the world continues to warm, such plane delays will become more common, says Camilo Mora, an associate geography professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. And that’s just the beginning.

Here’s how he predicts global warming will impact day-to-day life in the U.S. within the next century.

For much of the U.S., summer will take place indoors.

According to a study co-authored by Mora, if carbon emissions aren’t reduced, by 2100 New York City will experience about 50 days per year of heat and humidity conditions that has resulted in death (up from about two days now). Meanwhile, in cities such as Orlando and Houston, this threshold will be crossed for the entire summer, making it unsafe to go outside for extended periods of time.

“We’ll become prisoners of our houses,” says Mora.

Power outages will result in deaths.

In this brutally hot version of the future, in many U.S. cities air conditioning will become a literal life saver. Power outages, like the one that swept through Northeast and the Midwest in 2003 -- leaving 50 million people without electricity—will no longer be an inconvenience, but a national emergency. (For context, recall the heat-and-humidity wave that blanketed Europe in 2003, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties.)

Roads and train tracks will melt and buckle under the heat.

Like chocolate, asphalt can grow mushy under the blazing sun. As the temperatures becomes more extreme in the summers, highways will “start to melt,” says Mora. Howard Robinson, chief executive of the Road Surface Treatments Association, told the BBC that roads begin to soften when their surface temperature exceeds 50C (122F).

There is precedence for this; in the 2003 European heat wave, a section of a London motorway melted (while the forecast was well below that 50C cut off, the surface of the road was hotter than the ambient recorded temperature.)

Extreme heat also makes railroad tracks buckle. “The steel starts expanding,” explains Mora, and the tracks grow longer, which places stress on the ballasts that tether the tracks to the ground. If the expansion continues, eventually the tracks will buckle under the pressure.

While inconvenient, Mora predicts developed countries will find ways to adapt to the above scenarios. As temperature continues to rise, for example, runways will likely be elongated so planes can fly even at higher temperatures.

Mora worries these workarounds will distract us from the real perils of climate change. If we don’t take dramatic steps to reduce carbon emissions, the results will be devastating (even if we don’t, the future still looks hot and bleak).

Those with resources, particularly residents of first-world countries, will be spared the most serious repercussions, at least at first. But for the billions of poor people living in developing nations, global warming has already proven deadly (in India, for instance, more than 2,400 people died from heat-related illnesses last year.)

Unfortunately, as a species, “we suffer from short-term memory,” he says. When, earlier this week, a heat wave hit the Southwestern states, climate change was in the news. But “next week, when the heat wave is gone, everyone will be talking about something else.”

Instead of putting your head in the sand, Mora urges action, even if it’s minor: “consume less,” he says. Try to drive less, turn down your thermostat, or reduce your meat intake.

Climate change is tied to government policies, but it’s also “the combination of so many of us using things we don’t need,” he says. “We can’t afford to not think this is a problem.”