南极一冰架崩解在即，或致全球经济遭受严重损失

英国科学家上周三表示，再过“几周、几天甚至几小时”，一座巨大的冰山就将从南极的拉尔森C冰架上分离出来。

英国科学家写道：“冰山一旦崩解，拉尔森C冰架将会失去超过10%的面积，其冰盖也将退缩到有记载以来最靠后的位置。这一事件将彻底改变南极半岛的地形地貌。”

这座预计将分离出来的冰山的面积与美国的特拉华州大致相当，这也使它成为科学家们有史以来观测到的最大的冰山之一。科研人员估计，这一灾难有可能引发整个拉尔森C冰架的坍塌，最终可能导致全球海平面升高4英寸。

此次灾难甚至有可能导致全球经济都遭受到其负面影响。今年三月，英国《卫报》报道称，全球沿海地区有价值数万亿美元的资产正面临着被海水淹没的危险。德国的研究人员估计，全球海平面每升高4.3英寸（约11厘米），带来的经济损失就会增加一倍。（有没有人借机发“海难财”呢？当然有。一些保险公司和风险分析师都认为，销售“海水损失险”，是借助冰山融化大赚一笔的好机会。）

此次发布南极冰山断裂警报的，是一个叫做“MIDAS工程”的南极研究组织，该组织主要研究全球气候变化对南极冰架的影响。

《今日美国》指出：“并无证据表明这道裂缝的增大乃至冰山的最终断裂与气候变化之间有任何联系。”不过科学界已经普遍认为，海洋与大气温度的升高是导致此前南极半岛上几次冰山崩解事件的因素之一。（比如1995年的拉尔森A冰架，和2002年的拉尔森B冰架。）（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

A massive iceberg is “hours, days, or weeks” away from separating from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf, scientists based in the United Kingdom said Wednesday.

“When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded," the scientists wrote. "This event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula."

The iceberg that forms from the predicted separation could end up being roughly the size of Delaware, making it one of the largest icebergs that scientists have ever observed. The event could trigger a collapse of the entire Larsen C ice shelf, a catastrophe that could raise worldwide sea levels by four inches, researchers estimate.

That outcome has the potential to harm the world’s economy. In March, the Guardian reported that trillions of dollars of coastal assets were at risk of flooding. Researchers in Germany estimate that economic losses double for every 4.3-inch (11 cm) increase in sea levels. (The silver lining? Insurance companies and risk analysts see a potential big business in selling flooding insurance to capitalize on potential deluges caused by melting ice caps.)

The scientists behind the Larsen C prediction are part of an Antarctic research group called Project MIDAS that investigates how global climate change impacts the ice shelf.

"There is no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change," USA Today notes—though it is widely accepted in the scientific community that warming ocean and atmospheric temperatures were a factor in earlier disintegrations of ice shelves (e.g. Larsen A in 1995, Larsen B in 2002) on the Antarctic Peninsula.