欧洲经济再次复苏，只有一个国家除外

欧洲经济正再次整体复苏，只有英国除外。对于英国脱欧效应的担忧，正在对英国的商业和消费者信心产生日益严重的影响。

根据调查公司IHS Markit周一公布的倍受关注的采购经理人指数（Purchasing Manager Indexes）显示，欧元区工厂在2017年上半年实现了六年来的最快增长速度。另外，该公司表示，全球对电子产品的需求日益增长，也帮助推动了亚洲的科技制造业经济。

六月份，欧元区的制造业采购经理人指数从五月份的57.0提高至57.4，创下了自2011年4月以来的最高水平。新订单数量创下了自2011年初以来的最快增长速度，积压工作创下13年以来的新高，原材料耗尽，工厂以接近历史最高速度增加员工人数，这些都意味着欧元区的增长势头会持续到下半年。法国和意大利的复苏势头尤为强劲，而德国的商业信心（由备受尊金的智库Ifo测量）则在6月份创下史上最高记录。

IHS Markit的首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示：“没有迹象表明欧元区令人印象深刻的经济业绩会很快结束。对全年的乐观情绪达到了至少五年内的最高水平，积压订单也达到了七年来最快的增长速度，另外为应对需求的增长，工厂也在以接近历史最快的速度进行招聘。”  

法国可能选出一位承诺带领法国退出欧盟单一货币项目的右翼民族主义者担任总统，这种担忧影响了前几个月的观点，但亲欧盟的中间派埃曼努尔·马克龙在5月份的压倒性胜利驱散了这种担忧。他所领导的共和前进党（La Republique en Marche）在上个月再次取得了压倒性胜利。相比之下，上个月，英国的政治不确定性变得日益严重，因为突然举行的大选让保守党在政府中只取得了少数席位。

另外，还有其他迹象也表明欧元区的经济在持续好转，例如官方数据显示欧元区的失业率达到2009年以来的最低，占劳动力的9.3%，首次申请失业救济的人数减少了5,000人。一年前，欧元区的失业率为10.2%。

经济复苏让越来越多的工厂开始涨价，这对欧洲央行的决策者们来说是好消息。多年来，欧洲央行的官员一直在争论是否应该让通货膨胀恢复到2%的目标上限。周五公布的官方速报数据显示，6月份，通货膨胀率为1.3%，超出预期，虽然低于目标，但最近强劲的经济数据使欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉在上周提出了政策收紧的可能性。

但英国制造业的增长速度却低于预期，因为消费者面临着双重打击，一方面是通货膨胀加速，主要原因是自去年脱欧公投以来的英镑贬值，另一方面是工资增长放缓。英国PMI指数从五月份向下修正的56.3下降至54.3，创下三个月最低，且远低于路透社的一项调查预测。在该调查中，经济学家们预测英国的PMI指数为56.5。高于50便意味着增长。

周一的调查显示，事实证明，所谓英镑贬值的一线希望 —— 出口竞争力提高，很难实现，并且可能让英格兰银行（Bank of England）慎重考虑加息问题。英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼称，他将密切关注英国经济对英国脱欧谈判开始的反应，以及投资与出口能否能抵销消费者部门的疲软。出口商最近似乎从英镑贬值中大赚了一笔，上个月英国工业联合会（Confederation of British Industry ）进行的一项调查发现，订单数量超出平均水平的出口商比例，超过了过去20年的任何时候。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

The European economy is humming again - except for Britain, where fears about the effect of the country's exit from the European Union are taking an increasingly heavy toll on business and consumer confidence.

Factories in the Eurozone rounded off the first half of 2017 by ramping up at the fastest rate for over six years, according to closely-watched Purchasing Manager Indexes released Monday by the research firm IHS Markit. Meanwhile, Asia's tech-manufacturing economies were helped by growing global demand for electronics products, it said.

June's manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone rose to 57.4, its highest since April 2011 and up from May's 57.0. Suggesting the bloc's momentum will continue into the second half, new orders rose at the fastest rate since early 2011, backlogs of work increased at the fastest pace in over 13 years, raw materials were depleted and factories increased headcount at a near-record pace. The upturn was particularly strong in France and Italy, but German business confidence (as measured by the respected Ifo think-tank) hit an all-time high in June.

“There’s no sign of the impressive performance ending any time soon," said IHS Markit's chief business economist Chris Williamson. "Optimism about the year ahead has risen to the highest for at least five years, backlogs of orders are building up at the fastest rate for over seven years and factories are reporting near-record hiring as they struggle to deal with the upturn in demand."

Source: IHS Markit

Fears that France would elect a right-wing nationalist as President promising to pull the country out of the EU's single currency project had weighed on opinion in the first months of the year, but were dispelled by the crushing victory of the centrist and pro-EU Emmanuel Macron in May – a feat repeated by his party La Republique en Marche last month. By contrast, political uncertainty took a turn for the worse in the U.K. last month after a snap election left the country with a minority Conservative government.

Further signs of the strengthening economy came elsewhere, as official data showed the Eurozone's jobless rate holding at its lowest since 2009, at 9.3% of the workforce, after a 5,000 drop in new jobless claims. A year ago, the jobless rate had stood at 10.2%.

The strengthening economy is increasingly letting factories raise prices, welcome news for policymakers at the European Central Bank who have been battling for years to get inflation back to their 2 percent target ceiling. Inflation was a stronger-than-expected 1.3 percent in June, official flash data showed on Friday, and while still below target, recent strong economic data meant ECB chief Mario Draghi last week raised the prospect of policy tightening.

But British manufacturing grew more slowly than expected as consumers faced the double-hit of accelerating inflation - caused in large part by the fall in the pound since last year's vote to leave the EU - and by slowing wage growth. the U.K. PMI fell to 54.3 from a downwardly-revised 56.3 in May, a three-month low and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists that pointed to a reading of 56.5. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

Monday's survey suggested the supposed silver lining of a weakened pound - more competitive exports - is proving elusive and could make Bank of England officials think twice about raising interest rates. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says he is watching to see how the economy copes with the launch of Brexit talks and whether weakness among consumers could be offset by investment and exports. Exporters had recently appeared to be cashing in from the pound's decline – a survey by the Confederation of British Industry last month said a bigger proportion of exporters had above-average order books than at any time in the last 20 years.