沃尔沃大力发展电动汽车，特斯拉会怎样？

分析师们纷纷对沃尔沃（Volvo）的电动汽车和混合动力车计划发表意见，而且各方的反应不一，既有人表示怀疑和“漠不关心”，也有人持谨慎乐观甚至狂热的态度，但至少有一个人认为这则消息对特斯拉（Tesla）而言绝非好兆头。或者至少应该让这家公司和它的股东们警醒。

巴克莱银行（Barclays）汽车分析师布莱恩·A·约翰逊在周三的一篇研究报告中写道，特斯拉的信徒们可能会认为，沃尔沃在2019年及以后全部生产电动汽车的宣言，验证了特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克关于可持续电动交通未来的愿景。

但约翰逊的观点截然不同，甚至更加悲观。他认为沃尔沃的决定提供了更多证据（尤其是在最近考察过中国之后）证明，随着传统汽车厂商不断扩大电动汽车业务，“特斯拉将在未来十年面临激烈竞争”。

约翰逊列出了三点，作为对特斯拉估值的“现实反思”。他的主要观点包括：

虽然特斯拉可能在电池成本方面领先，至少在中国以外的市场，但传统汽车厂商在其他方面的巨大优势，可能意味着每辆汽车的成本优势不会有太大意义。（约翰逊承认，特斯拉在软件、大数据和通过“远程下载”软件更新提高性能和修复漏洞等关键技术领域确实遥遥领先。）

而且特斯拉的对手不止是纯电动汽车，还要面临混合动力车的竞争。约翰逊指出，几乎每一家大型汽车厂商都在计划推出48伏混合动力车，许多公司可能会提供插电式混合动力车。

虽然监管压力使中国成为电动汽车和插电式电动汽车的主要市场，但中国的竞争环境“并不利于特斯拉”。他的理由是：插电式混合动力车和低端电动汽车远比特斯拉“更受欢迎”，地方法规偏袒本地公司，大批廉价的中国电池将让特斯拉斥资数十亿美元在内华达州里诺附近兴建的电池工厂的所有优势化为泡影。

当然，马斯克的反应可能会像之前有汽车厂商宣布生产电动汽车时一样，认为： 参与者越多，市场越热闹。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

As analysts weigh in on Volvo's electric and hybrid vehicle plans—with a mix of reactions ranging from skeptical and "meh" to cautious optimism and even enthusiasm— the news prompted at least one to conclude that it doesn't bode well for Tesla. Or at the very least should provide a wake-up call to the company and its shareholders.

Tesla believers will likely view Volvo's declaration that every new car made in 2019 and beyond will have an electric motor as a validation of CEO Elon Musk's vision of a future of sustainable, electric transportation, Barclays auto analyst Brian A. Johnson wrote in a research note Wednesday.

Johnson takes a different, and darker, view, saying it provides more evidence (especially after a recent visit to China) that "Tesla will face intense competition by next decade" from legacy automakers who are expanding their electric options.

Johnson makes three points that he describes as "reality checks" on Tesla's valuation. His main points:

While Tesla might have a lead in battery costs, at least outside of China, other scale advantages of legacy automakers likely means the cost-per-vehicle advantage will not be meaningful. (Johnson did admit that Tesla is well ahead on key tech components such as software, Big Data, and the ability to improve performance and fix bugs via "over-the-air" software updates.)

Tesla faces competition not just from pure all-electrics, but from hybrids. Johnson notes that nearly every major automakers is planning to roll out 48-volt hybrids and many may offer plug-in hybrids.

China's competitive environment is "stacked against Tesla" even though regulatory pressures there makes it a prime market for electric and plug-in electric vehicles. His argument: plug-in hybrids and low-end EVs are "vastly more popular" than Tesla, local regulations favors local companies, a flood of cheap Chinese batteries will negate any advantages from the multi-billion battery factory Tesla is building near Reno, Nev.

Of course, Musk's reaction to all of this will likely follow previous comments about automakers deciding to produce electric vehicles: the more, the merrier.