关于马斯克与扎克伯格的AI之争，马斯克错了

有关人工智能对未来影响的辩论不断升级，两大技术名人——特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和Facebook 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格则分别代表着悲观派和乐观派。马斯克曾说AI是“关乎人类文明存亡的风险”。扎克伯格则反驳称，这样的说法“相当不负责任”。马斯克随后在推特上回应，扎克伯格“对这个问题的理解有限”。虽然两人的对话指的是AI的全面影响，但许多人的辩论都集中在AI作用已经显现的就业领域。

作为人类，我们天然地会当心那些威胁自身生存的事物并预测悲剧。就业从本质上讲和我们的生存有关，因为这是我们大多数人获得收入进而能够满足个人基本需求的途径。然而，许多人都认为随着AI的到来，我们将看到“无用群体”的增长，他们不仅仅是失业，更是无法找到工作。

这是个令人胆寒而又悲观的预期。如果100年来数字技术不可思议的进步导致出现了这些每天无所事事只会玩虚拟游戏的“无用群体”，那将是文明的悲剧。如果情况果真如此，我们就会想起马斯克的话，并且会说它们很准确。但AI本身并非某个东西，而是一系列技术的集合，这些技术由人创造，它们的影响也在人的引导之下，包括对就业的影响。

特别要说的是那些科技行业从业者，他们有义务来左右AI和机器人的未来，从而创造更好、生产力更强的工作。我们可以利用AI来确保这样的机会在美国乃至整个世界分布的更加均衡，而不是集中在少数城市的财富和机遇之中。

投资能源领域时保持对未来就业的警惕是明智行为，因为只有一点确定无疑，那就是工作会发生变化。但在我看来，接受悲观失望的观点并不明智。我们还有时间来塑造未来，并让它变得光明。社会中的每一个人都有义务确保人们受到教育，从而适应今后AI涉足工作各个方面的情况。但要确保AI来协助人类工作者，而不是取代他们，则要靠那些技术创造者。

痴迷于削减人工成本是硅谷文化的一块短板，。不过，有迹象表明科技领域中的人在思考自身对人类的义务的问题上，开始有了不同的想法，并且据此来设计产品。

说到肮脏、危险和不体面的工作，自动化可以挽救生命并让人们变得更有尊严。已经有迹象表明，“第四次工业革命”将提高GDP和整体生产率，像前三次那样，它还有可能提高工作的灵活性以及地域多样性。如果机器人和自动化要带来的是这些，那就让它们来吧。

AI技术怎样创造机会

技术在消除就业机会方面确实有巨大的力量。经济学家大卫·奥特尔指出，1900年有40%以上的人从事农业劳动，而到了2000年，这个数字已经降至2%，原因是农用机械提高了生产效率。与之类似，自动驾驶技术可能最终让数百万卡车、出租车以及其他车辆驾驶员的工作变得过时。目前从事这些工作的人可能需要去找别的工作。

另一方面，自动化可以让就业机会出现净增。ATM机问世以来，美国银行出纳员的数量增加了一倍。虽然农用机械大幅压缩了农业就业市场，但美国的整体劳动参与率在20世纪一直稳步上升。到目前为止，所有重大转型带来的都是就业机会的增长，而非下降。

有证据表明目前的情况也是如此。实际上，美国私营部门非农业就业人数已连续增长了87个月，失业率处于历史低点，这说明互联网技术其实并未破坏就业。同时，去年约三分之一的美国公司开始部署AI。这个重大转型已经开始。

今后，AI可以帮助人们工作，无论他们居于何处。比如，AI协助的医疗诊断或许可以把超级计算机以及全球那些最佳医疗中心的力量传递到地方家庭医生手中。使用AI的新算法可以让我们更好地了解世界局势，从而有助于打击虚假新闻。AI可以提高各地计算机程序员的生产率，而不仅仅是硅谷。

人类的自我教育义务

过去100年出现了如此之多的新就业机会，原因之一就是20世纪初把义务教育范围扩大到高中的工作，让无法继续在农场上找活干的人得到了教育。这项决定确保了我们有数百万得到良好教育的有文化的劳动者，可以从事20世纪下半叶所需的工作。

现在我们需要做同样的事。只是这次我们得抛弃陈旧的19世纪课堂教学模式，并接受一些新方法，它们更适合我们这个快速变化的时代。个人应做好终身学习的准备，原因是工作对技能的需求变得比以往任何时候都快。传统高等学位再也无法带来稳定的长期工作机会，崭新的技术培训产生的影响则要大得多。公司也应准备好留住那些被机器取代的人。同时，我们还需要更多的公私教育合作，从而把企业和政府的力量融合在一起。

我们需要社会保障网络来帮助人们度过这些重大转型，但我们需要的不仅是投资于社会保障网，而是解决根本问题。

技术领域中的人需要引导技术来协助人，而不是取代人。公司和社会作为一个整体则需要向教育投资，以确保我们和我们的后代为那些我们甚至想象不到的工作做好准备。

如果能做到这些，就像我们的先辈在20世纪初做的那样，我们就能确保AI为所有人带来一个充满机遇和财富的时代。（财富中文网）

作者Stephane Kasriel是自由职业市场Upwork首席执行官。

译者：Charlie

审稿：夏林

There’s a growing debate about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on the future, with two tech luminaries themselves—Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg—as figureheads representing glass-half-empty vs. half-full perspectives, respectively. Musk commented that AI is an “existential risk for human civilization.” Zuckerberg retorted that comments like this are “pretty irresponsible,” to which Musk tweeted a retort that Zuckerberg’s “understanding of the subject is limited.” While these comments refer to sweeping impacts, many are debating one specific area where we are already seeing the effects of AI: jobs.

As humans, we’re trained to watch for threats to our survival and predict tragedies. Jobs are intrinsically linked to our survival, as they’re the way most of us earn income and are therefore able to provide for our basic needs. However, many are predicting that with the advent of AI, we will see the rise of a “useless class”—people who are not just unemployed, but are unemployable.

This is a chilling and pessimistic view of the future. If the last century of incredible advances in digital technologies leads to the creation of a “useless class” of people who have nothing better to do than play virtual-reality video games all day, that’s a tragedy for civilization. If that’s what happens, we will look back at Musk’s remarks and say they were accurate. But AI itself is not a thing; it is a series of combined technologies that humans are creating and guiding the impacts of, including impacts on work.

In particular, those of us in the technology industry have an obligation to shape the future of AI and robotics to help create better and more productive jobs. We can leverage AI to ensure that opportunity is more equally distributed around the country and around the world, rather than concentrated in small pockets of urban wealth and opportunity.

Investing energy in the vigilant watch over the future of work is wise because only one thing is sure: Jobs will change. However, buying into doom and gloom is not wise, in my opinion. There is time to shape our future and make it a positive one. Everyone in society has an obligation to ensure that people are educated for a future in which AI touches every aspect of work. But it’s up to those of us who build technology to ensure that it augments human workers, not replaces them.

This is an area where Silicon Valley culture has fallen short, with its obsessive focus on eliminating labor costs. However, there are indications that people in technology are starting to think differently about their obligations toward humanity, and to design their products accordingly.

When it comes to dirty, dangerous, and demeaning work, automation can save lives and increase human dignity. There are already signs that this “fourth industrial revolution” will increase gross domestic product and overall productivity, just as the previous three have done, and it could also increase the flexibility and geographic diversity of work. If this is what we can expect from robots and automation, bring it on.

How AI technology can create opportunity

It’s true that technology has enormous power to eliminate jobs. In 1900, more than 40% of the population worked in agriculture, but by 2000, that was down to 2%, thanks to the efficiencies introduced by farming machines, as economist David Autor points out. Similarly, self-driving vehicle technologies may eventually make millions of truck drivers, taxi drivers, and other driving occupations obsolete. People who do those jobs now will need to find new work.

On the other hand, automation can result in a net increase of jobs. The number of bank tellers in the U.S. has doubled since the introduction of the ATM. And while farm machinery decimated the market for agricultural jobs, overall participation in the U.S. workforce grew steadily throughout the 20th century. In every major transition to date, we’ve wound up with more jobs, not fewer.

There is evidence that this is happening now. Indeed, nonfarm private employment has risen for 87 months in a row and unemployment levels are at record lows, in a sign that Internet technologies have not in fact destroyed jobs. Meanwhile, in the past year, about one-third of U.S. companies have started deploying artificial intelligence. This enormous transition is already beginning.

In the future, AI can help augment people’s work regardless of where they live. For instance, AI-enhanced medical diagnoses may bring the power of supercomputers and the world’s best medical centers into the hands of local family doctors. AI-powered news algorithms can improve our knowledge of world events and help fight fake news. AI can increase the productivity of computer programmers wherever they live, not just in Silicon Valley.

Our obligation to educate ourselves

One reason the last century resulted in so many new jobs is because of the early 20th-century movement to extend mandatory schooling through high school, providing education for people who no longer had farm jobs to look forward to. That decision ensured that we had millions of literate, well-educated people ready to take on the jobs that the second half of the 20th century needed.

We need to do the same now. Only this time, we need to jettison our outdated, 19th-century model of classroom education, and embrace new approaches more suited to our rapidly changing times. Individuals should position themselves for a lifetime of learning since the skills demanded by the workplace are changing more rapidly than ever. Traditional college degrees no longer lead to stable long-term employment opportunities—fresh training on new skills is much more impactful. Companies should also be prepared to retrain people when they replace them with machines. And we need more public-private education partnerships that combine contributions from both business and government.

Yes, we need safety nets to help people through these massive transitions, but instead of merely investing in social safety nets, we need to address the root causes.

Those of us in technology need to guide it to augment humans, not replace them. And companies and society as a whole need to invest in education to ensure we and our children are ready for jobs we can’t even imagine yet.

If we do that, as our ancestors did at the beginning of the 20th century, we can help ensure that AI will usher in an era of opportunity and wealth for all.

Stephane Kasriel is CEO of Upwork.