赌客反常大赚，永利老板遭受巨亏

赌场的亿万富翁史蒂夫·韦恩透露称，他在澳门赌场的一个中间人——本质上是承包商——带来的客人大赚特赚，导致赌场在4月损失了超过1,000万美元，对于一项可以获取5,000万美元利润的业务来说，这是令人震惊的损失。

这位永利度假村的创始人和首席执行官在电话会议上对分析师表示：“在我50年的赌场经营中，这次遭遇的可能是统计学上最独特的反常。由于涉及的金额数量巨大，我们较大的一个赌场出现了整月的亏损。”

知情人士表示，该承包商是澳门最大的赌场中介之一太阳城集团。彭博社联系太阳城集团时，对方表示对此无可奉告。

这次亏损发生在厦门路氹金光大道上斥资42亿美元建立的新度假酒店永利皇宫酒店的百家乐牌桌上。按照流行的做法，中间人把挥金如土的赌徒带到了赌场，给他们准备了现金，并领着他们进入了私人房间。根据客人的赌注，赌场给操作员提供佣金。

这位75岁的赌场大亨表示：“当时运气太糟糕了，所有的赌客都赢得了几百万美元。”

赌博就是拼概率的游戏，而百家乐的输赢可能会很极端。这种游戏吸引了全世界最大的赌徒，也给参与者带来了最诱人的赔率，庄家优势平均只有1.2%。也就是参与者平均投入100美元只会输掉1.2美元。而玩老虎机则会平均输掉多达12美元。

丹佛大学风险和游戏专业的教授罗伯特·汉纳姆表示，考虑到大量的参与者和高额的赌注，赌场整个月都没能盈利是罕见的情况。

他在一封邮件中说道：“盈利的概率极高。当然，也确实会出现黑天鹅事件，有些人也认为在赌场业务中，一切皆有可能。”

去年8月开张的永利皇宫酒店在其他方面的表现也令人失望。永利表示，这家酒店周围的建筑都影响了客流。这里的亏损也导致了永利度假村在第二季度的收益低于预期。公司股价在过去两天内下跌了近8%。

赌场业务的波动性，也使得一些赌场经营者会根据调整基数发布财报，也就是说他们会告诉投资者如果赌场收益达到了历史常规水平，公司收入会是多少。

今年1月，拉斯维加斯金沙公司在澳门新建的巴黎人度假酒店亏损2,000万美元，其中的1,500万美元就因为一位幸运的赌徒所致。上周三，公司表示高端百家乐的不稳定性，又导致其在新加坡的滨海湾金沙酒店的收入猛增1亿美元。

在收入电话会议上，总裁罗伯·古德斯坦表示：“让我们明确一点，这个季度我们十分走运。我认为这一点有必要重复声明，这是个高度集中的领域，有几十个经营者可以在一个季度里一鸣惊人。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

On Tuesday, casino billionaire Steve Wynn revealed that a junket operator in his Macau casinos -- essentially a subcontractor -- brought in clients whose winnings cost the casino more than $10 million in April, an astonishing swing for a business that can generate profit of as much as $50 million.

“We had probably the most unique statistical anomaly in my 50 years of doing this,” the founder and chief executive officer of Wynn Resorts told analysts on a conference call. “And that is with enormous volume, one of our leading outlets lost money for the entire month.”

The contractor was Suncity Group, one of Macau’s largest junket operators, according to people familiar with the matter. Contacted by Bloomberg, Suncity said it didn’t have any information to disclose about the matter.

The loss occurred at baccarat tables at the Wynn Palace, the new $4.2 billion resort on Macau’s Cotai Strip. In a system prevalent in that market, junket operators bring high rollers to the casinos, front them cash and set them up in private rooms. The casinos pay the operators a commission based on the amount their clients bet, and are on the hook for the gamblers’ winnings.

“The bottom fell out and all of the players won millions of dollars,” said the 75-year-old casino mogul.

Gambling is a matter of probabilities, and with baccarat the swings can be extreme. The game attracts the biggest bettors in the world and offers among the best odds for players, with the house advantage averaging 1.2 percent. That means a player can expect to lose $1.20 for every $100 bet over time. In slot machines it’s as much as $12.

Given the high volume of players and betting, being unprofitable for a whole month is unusual, said Robert Hannum, a professor of risk and gaming at the University of Denver.

“The odds are astronomically high,” he said in an e-mail. “Of course, black swans do occur and some might say that anything can happen in the casino business.”

The Wynn Palace, which opened in August of last year, has disappointed in other ways. Construction on all sides of the new property has hampered access, Wynn said. The shortfall there contributed to a second-quarter earnings miss at Wynn Resorts. The shares lost almost 8 percent of their value over the past two days.

The volatility of the business has prompted some casino operators to report their results on a hold-adjusted basis, meaning they also tell investors what revenue would have been had winnings been more in line with historical norms.

In January, Las Vegas Sands Corp. blamed one lucky gambler for contributing in part to a $15 million to $20 million shortfall at its new Parisian resort in Macau. On Wednesday, the company said the volatile high-end baccarat play contributed to a $100 million revenue bump at its Marina Bay Sands in Singapore.

“Let’s be clear, we had a lot of luck this quarter,” President Rob Goldstein said on an earnings call. “I think it bears repeating that this is a highly concentrated segment that a couple of dozen players can make a difference in a quarter.”