iPhone 8要来了，这一次你还要卖肾吗？

今年2月我就听到风声说苹果新款iPhone可能定价1000美元，甚至更高。当时美国商业杂志《快公司》的高级撰稿人马克·苏利文援引匿名人士消息称，十周年特别版iPhone或将推出新功能，售价“很可能超过1000美元。”

当时看来这条消息还有些离谱。但后来几个月，新一代iPhone可能出高配版的可能性越来越大。苏利文报道的不少内容都和凯基证券分析师郭明池的预测一致。郭明池对苹果的动向一直摸得很准。早在去年11月，郭明池就爆料称今年苹果将推出三款新iPhone，其中一款将配备高级的OLED屏幕（OLED显示技术与传统的LCD显示方式不同，无需背光灯，更轻更薄，可视角度更大，并且更加省电——译注）。

如今，距离预计发布新iPhone的时间只有几个月了，苹果将推出高价特别版iPhone的消息也越传越凶。

有人认为这步棋走错了。瑞穗证券的苹果分析师阿沛·兰巴担心，今年只有顶配版iPhone才有最高级的新功能，比如OLED屏幕，因此买不起高价iPhone的消费者根本不会选择升级，他们希望明年苹果在更便宜的iPhone型号上升级新功能。

“近期一些升级活动可能都在淘汰老旧设备的硬件，但只要消费者想办法适应，还是能将手上的老款多用一阵子，直到OLED显示屏和其他新增功能的价格更加亲民。”兰巴在报告中写道，“因此，和此前发布的产品相比，这次的产品周期可能会延长。”

也有人认为，苹果可以借机抢占更多高端市场份额。科技业专栏作者约翰·古鲁伯在个人网站Daringfireball.net上指出，同iPad和Mac电脑产品线一样，苹果在iPhone产品线中增加一个高端的“Pro”型号非常适合。尤其今年苹果可能没有足够货源给所有iPhone换上OLED屏幕，优先高端型号也很正常。

“本田和丰田各自打造高端产品线讴歌和雷克萨斯也是同样道理，那样一来，两家车企既可以丰富高端汽车品牌，又不会损害既有畅销车型雅阁和凯美瑞的人气和品牌价值。同理，为了有史以来最畅销，可能也是唯一一个爆款产品iPhone，苹果另辟高端品类也是有意义的。”格鲁伯这样认为。

我还没想清楚。你们怎么看？你是会去买高配iPhone，推迟等到明年再买，还是选择市面上谷歌安卓系统的高端新款手机？（财富中文网）

译者；Pessy

审校：夏林

It was back in February that I first caught wind of the idea that Apple might decide to price a new model of the iPhone at $1,000 or more. Mark Sullivan's anonymously-sourced piece in Fast Company said a special 10th anniversary edition of the iconic smartphone would have special features and a price tag "very likely north of $1,000."

It seemed a little preposterous at the time, but in the ensuing months, the idea of a even-more-expensive iPhone has gained credibility. And much of Sullivan's reporting was consistent with the forecast from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, he of the most accurate Apple rumor track record, from way back in November that Apple was prepping three new models for 2017 including one with a fancy OLED screen.

Now, with the expected launch of the new phones just a few months away, chatter about the high-priced special edition has exploded.

Some think it's a mistake. Apple analyst Abhey Lamba at Mizuho Securities, worries that because Apple will be including the best new features, like the OLED screen, only on the top 2017 model, customers who can't afford it won't upgrade at all, hoping the cool features will trickle down to cheaper models in 2018.

"While some near-term upgrade activity may be associated with failing hardware of aged devices, customers with the flexibility to extend the life of their devices may choose to do so until OLED panel and incremental functionality are more widely available," Lamba writes. "As a result, the product cycle could end up being more prolonged this time around versus prior launches."

But others see an opening for Apple to capture more revenue by moving up market. Tech columnist John Gruber of the web site Daringfireball.net, says it's fitting for Apple to add a deluxe "Pro" model to the iPhone line as it has done with iPads and Mac computers, especially because the company probably can't source enough of the OLED screens this year to include them on every phone.

"In the same way it made sense for Honda and Toyota to create their Acura and Lexus divisions to sell higher-end cars without eroding the value or popularity of their best-selling Accords and Camrys, it makes sense for Apple to create a premium tier for the iPhone, the best-selling product the company has ever made and likely will ever make," Gruber says.

I'm on the fence. What do you think? Will you go for the top-end iPhone? Delay a purchase until next year? Maybe opt for one of the top new Google Android phones already out instead?