日本成为如今G7国家中增速最快的经济体

本周一发布的官方数据显示，这个全球第三大经济体今年4月到6月的年化增长率达到了4.0%，大大超出人们的预期，也是十年来日本经济保持连续增长最长的一次。这次增幅是两年多来的新高，也是日本连续第六个季度实现增长。与前一个季度相比，该季度经济增长1.0%，大大超出了0.6%的预期中值。政府也略微上调了第一季度的估计年化增长率至1.5%。

这种态势有望在接下来几个季度里继续保持，这让日本央行充满希望：供不应求的劳动力市场终于得以提高工资、促进消费支出。美好的数据也洗刷了首相安倍晋三的政府蒙受的冤屈，后者之前一直遭到批评，称其经济议程没有采取足够的措施来振兴日本经济。

瑞穗研究院的高级经济学家德田秀信表示：“消费支出和资本支出这两大引擎在第二季度都运转良好，这也是内需强劲的原因。”

“增长的速率可能会略有下滑，不过我们仍然处于恢复模式。这是通胀带来的积极发展。”

日本的发展很大程度上依赖于今年早些时候的强劲出口，尽管也有迹象表明个人消费也有抬头之势。

在日本GDP中占据三分之二的个人消费比上一季度提高了0.9%，高出了0.5%的预期中值。随着消费者大量购买汽车和家电等耐用品，这一增速也是三年多来之最。数据显示，消费者在外出就餐上的花费也比以往更多。这些令人振奋的迹象都表明消费支出已不再是日本经济前景中薄弱的一环。员工工资提高了0.7%，也是去年第三季度以来增加最多的一次。企业投资额度也超出了预期。

相比之下，在4月至6月，外部需求使得GDP的增速减少了0.3%，因为进口额有所增加。这一点值得注意，因为日本往往依赖出口来推动经济增长。

三菱日联-摩根士丹利联合证券的高级经济师宫崎弘志表示：“经济在没有出口增长的情况下拥有如此大的涨幅，证明我们的基础很牢固。”

“消费增长在下个季度可能会稍微减速，但是消费支出的恢复基础已经建立起来了。”

日本经济产业大臣茂木敏充对于内需的前景更加谨慎，并表示会采取更多措施提振经济。

他对记者表示：“如果你问我个人消费是否已经完全恢复，我认为在一些领域它还不够强劲，需要政策继续跟进。”

尽管日本经济的增长远超预期，但日本央行短期内应该不会取消其大规模刺激项目，因为通胀幅度仍然很弱。自从2013年4月采用量化宽松政策以来，日本央行已经推迟了六次达到2%的目标通胀率的期限，其部分原因就在于疲软的消费支出。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

The world's third-largest economy expanded by a much stronger-than-expected annualized rate of 4.0 percent in April-June, posting its longest uninterrupted run of growth in a decade, official data showed Monday. That was the fastest growth in over two years, and the sixth straight quarter of expansion. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy expanded 1.0 percent, well above a median estimate of 0.6 percent. The government also slightly revised upwards its estimate of first-quarter growth to an annualised 1.5%.

Activity is expected to continue to improve in coming quarters, offering the Bank of Japan hope that a tight labor market is finally starting to boost wages and consumer spending. The rosy data were also a vindication for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, which has faced criticism that its economic agenda has not done enough to revive the country's fortunes.

“The engines of consumer spending and capital expenditure both fired well in the second quarter, and that's why domestic demand was so strong,” said Hidenobu Tokuda, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

"The pace of growth may moderate slightly, but we are still in recovery mode. This is a positive development for inflation."

Japan 's growth had been largely reliant on robust exports earlier in the year, though there were signs private consumption was picking up.

Private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, more than the median estimate of 0.5 percent growth. That marked the fastest expansion in more than three years as shoppers splashed out on durable goods such as cars and home appliances. Consumers also spent more money on dining out, the data showed. These are all encouraging signs that consumer spending is no longer the weak spot in Japan 's economic outlook. Employees' wages rose 0.7 percent, the biggest increase since the third quarter of last year. Corporate investment also outpaced expectations.

External demand, by contrast, subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth in April-June in part due to an increase in imports. This is notable because Japan usually relies on exports to drive growth.

"The fact that the economy was able to grow this much without gains in exports shows our fundamentals are solid," said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"Consumption gains could slow a little in the following quarter, but the foundations for a recover in consumer spending are in place."

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was more cautious on the outlook for domestic demand and pledged to implement extra measures to strengthen the economy.

"If you ask me whether private consumption has fully recovered, I would say it still lacks strength in some areas, which will need to be followed with policy," Motegi told reporters.

While growth was faster than expected, it is not expected to nudge the Bank of Japan into dismantling its massive stimulus program any time soon, as inflation remains stubbornly weak. Since launching quantitative easing in April 2013, the BOJ has pushed back the timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation target six times, due in part to weak consumer spending.