这个年龄段的美国人最爱买房买车

据美国房地产网站Zillow Group的数据，18到34岁的青年一代已经成为美国最大的买房群体，其中有近一半的人生活在城市郊区。随着生娃的需求迫在眉睫，他们也越来越追求大户型的房子，同时也更加钟爱大尺寸的汽车。据福特公司估算，今年上半年，美国大型SUV的销量跃升了11个百分点，而中型和小型SUV的销量只分别上涨了9%和4%。

购车网站Autotrader分析师米歇尔·克雷布斯指出：“随着青年人开始购房成家并且积攒起一定的财富，他们对大型SUV的需求也在增长。他们的第一部车可能是紧凑型SUV，不过成家之后，他们的需求就发生了变化。”

Americans aged about 18 to 34 have become the largest group of homebuyers, and almost half live in the suburbs, according to Zillow Group data. As they shop for bigger homes to accommodate growing families, they’re upsizing their vehicles to match. U.S. industry sales of large SUVs have jumped 11 percent in the first half of the year, Ford Motor Co. estimates, compared with increases of 9 percent for midsize and 4 percent for small SUVs.

“We do see that demographic group driving larger sport utility sales as they acquire homes, create families and gain some wealth,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst at car-shopping website Autotrader. “They started with compact sport utilities and now, with families, they’re moving up.”

年轻人在郊区买房的热潮也让他们的父母感到很惊讶，美国的年轻人原本宁可不攒钱买房，也不愿意在吃上委屈自己的肚子。前几年也就是“千禧一代”刚刚大学毕业那几年，由于就业市场整体疲软，加上他们有一大堆助学贷款要还，很多年轻人都奉行晚婚晚育，也没有将买房提上议事日程。随着越来越多的年轻人渐渐克服了这些困难，他们也开始想过上“婴儿潮”一代父母的生活——生娃，在郊区买大房子，开大排量SUV。

Zillow首席经济学家斯文贾·古德尔表示：“随着越来越多的年轻人搬出父母的地下室——当然还有不少仍然住在那里，我们认为，对购房的健康需求还会继续持续。”去年千禧一代已经占到了美国所有购房者的42%。“以前，‘千禧一代’推迟了买房、结婚和生子，但现在他们做出了与父母非常相似的选择。”

婴儿车，儿童床

很多美国年轻人都倾向于购买三排座的大型SUV，好有足够的空间放下孩子的婴儿车和便捷式的儿童床。据研究机购LMC Automotive预测，从现在起到2022年，中型SUV的销量将增长16个百分点，而像福特征服者和雪佛兰太浩这样的全尺寸SUV的销量则会猛增四分之一左右。

据福特公司今年六月进行的一项调查显示，在“千禧一代”心目中，生孩子、在郊区买房、买一辆大号SUV的重要性，要高于居住在核心城市或者用其他交通手段出行。

福特的美国销售分析师埃里希·默克在采访中表示：“年轻人的结婚年龄无疑是推后了，但他们还是想要孩子的。只要他们开始生儿育女，在孩子们成长和交友的过程中，他们就需要更大的空间。”

今天，美国中型和大型SUV的最大买主是35到44岁之间的中年人。这代人又称做“X世代”，不过其人口总数显著少于“千禧一代”的8000万人。

更多的买主

默克表示：“未来10到15年，又将有2500万人迈进35到44岁的年龄阶段。大型和中型SUV的销量也将呈现稳步增长，这种趋势现在已经开始了。”

最近几年，紧凑型SUV的销量已经超过了丰田凯美瑞和本田雅阁等中型家轿。默克并没有说明福特公司是否认为中大型SUV的销量会反超紧凑型SUV。不过据福特公司预测，未来五到七年里，美国汽车市场上SUV的占有率将从现在的40%上涨到45%。

其中，千禧一代将成为购买SUV的绝对主力。据美国疾病控制与预防中心的数据，目前，美国30至34岁女性的生育率已经达到了1964年以来的最高水平。

比如Zillow分析古德尔就买了一台奥迪Q5：“以我为例，我当然是需要大空间车型的，因为车子如果小了，跟孩子一起出行是很不方便的。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

The shift to suburbia may surprise those who’ve chided millennials for being more interested in pricey avocado toast than in saving for a home. Much of the generation delayed marriage, childbearing and home ownership after graduating with heaping student-loan debt and entering a weak job market. As more millennials overcome this, many want the life of their baby-boomer parents -- the kids, the house in the ’burbs and the beefy SUV.

“As more people move out of their parents’ basement -- and there’s still quite a few living there -- we expect to see continued healthy demand for homes,” said Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow, which found millennials made up 42 percent of homebuyers last year. “Millennials delayed home ownership, just like they delayed getting married and having kids, but now they’re making very similar decisions to their parents.”

Strollers, Cribs

More millennials are expected to move up into bigger SUVs with three rows of seats and enough cargo space for strollers and portable cribs. Sales of midsize SUVs will grow by 16 percent between now and 2022, while deliveries of the biggest rigs -- think Ford Expeditions and Chevrolet Tahoes -- will jump 25 percent, according to a forecast by researcher LMC Automotive.

Millennials ranked having children, buying a suburban home and driving a big family vehicle higher in terms of importance than living in a major city or relying on alternate forms of transportation in a survey that Ford conducted in June.

“There’s no question people are waiting longer, but people still want to have children,” Erich Merkle, Ford’s U.S. sales analyst, said in an interview. “As long as people have children and those children grow and acquire friendships, it requires more space.”

Today, the largest group of midsize and large SUV buyers is between the ages of 35 and 44, Merkle said. That cohort, known as Gen X, is significantly smaller than millennials, who are about 80 million strong.

More Buyers

“There’s going to be an extra 25 million people passing into and through the 35- to 44-year-old demographic over the next 10 to 15 years,” Merkle said. “That’s going to lead to a gradual increase in the growth of large and midsize SUVs that’s already starting to happen.”

Merkle wouldn’t say if Ford expected sales of larger SUVs to eventually outpace compact utilities, a segment that’s surged past family sedans like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord. Ford forecasts that SUVs will grow to 45 percent of the U.S. market in the next five to seven years, from 40 percent now.

Increasingly, that growth will be driven by millennials, the oldest of whom have lifted the annual birthrate for women 30 to 34 to the highest level since 1964, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“As a sample size of one, I certainly need a lot of space because it’s really tough to travel with a child,” said Zillow’s Gudell, who drives an Audi Q5 SUV.