Jeep销量猛增，可能拯救菲克

近日，菲亚特克莱斯勒首席执行官塞尔吉奥·马尔乔内对分析师透露，这家意大利-美国联合汽车厂商预测，明年Jeep的年销量将增长30%左右，达到200万辆，而该品牌的年交货量最终可达到700万辆，原因是全球SUV需求量大幅上升。Jeep是以美国为主要市场的越野车品牌，2009年菲亚特收购克莱斯勒进而获得Jeep控制权时，该品牌的销量仅略高于30万辆，从这个角度来说，这样的增长速度将继续引起关注。

就算马尔乔内有充足的理由来预测SUV有更多增长空间，但这样的发展速度仍然前所未有。Jeep至少需要一款年销量超百万的车型。IHS Markit的数据显示，2010年以来全球平均年销量达到如此高水平的只有丰田卡罗拉，但那是一款平价日用紧凑型轿车，和Jeep的所有产品都有天壤之别。

65岁的马尔乔内曾说，菲克可能向对待超跑业务法拉利那样剥离其他部门。虽然此言引发了对Jeep未来的猜测，甚至让长城汽车有了想法，但这个品牌绝对动不得。Jeep已经成为菲克大众产品规划的核心。缺了它，菲克就有可能难以吸引它需要的合作伙伴，从而应对席卷汽车行业的颠覆浪潮。

对于Jeep，长期从事汽车行业分析和咨询工作的玛丽安·科勒说：“我想不到菲克怎么会卖掉它。不管用Jeep换来什么都将得不偿失。”

据了解情况的人士透露，菲克高层正在考虑的方案包括剥离高端业务玛莎拉蒂和阿尔法·罗密欧以及汽车零部件业务。同时，菲克想保留Jeep，以稳定包括道奇和Ram在内的大众产品业务。这位消息人士要求不透露其身份，因为这些是菲克高层私下讨论的话题。菲克发言人拒绝就此发表评论。

Jeep已经转型为跨国厂商, 摩根士丹利对其估值为230亿欧元（270亿美元）。今年，Jeep开始在印度生产SUV，随后将在中国、巴西和意大利设立新工厂。在7月27日的业绩电话会议上，马尔乔内说SUV和跨界车有潜力占据全球汽车行业三分之一的份额，或者说年销量最高可达3500万辆；而凭借其声誉和血统，Jeep有可能在SUV和跨界车领域获得20%的份额。

除了已有的自由侠、指南者、切诺基和大切诺基，今后几年Jeep家族还将增加Wagoneer、Grand Wagoneer和一款匹卡。要达到马尔乔内预测的销量，这些车型的销量之和得比去年菲克的总销量高50%左右。

说到马尔乔内的长期预测，晨星汽车行业分析师理查德·希尔格特认为：“目前看来这差不多是张空头支票。”但希尔格特也指出，几年前大多数观察人士都对到2018年Jeep的全年销量能否达到200万辆持怀疑态度，而现在看来这是个可以实现的预期。

保留业务不可持续

在业绩电话会议上，马尔乔内清楚地阐述了菲克不剥离Jeep的理由，而且警告说其他业务的健康水平或许不足以维持下去。

他说：“我们确实需要对那些保留下来的业务感到担心。如果把所有看起来让人感兴趣的东西都卖掉，我觉得最后剩下来的业务将不够理想，而且无法正常运转。”

缺了表现强劲而且覆盖全球市场的Jeep，菲克在面对潜在合作伙伴时基本上就没有拿得出手的东西了，而菲克可能需要这样的合作伙伴来弥补自己的战略短板。在美国，菲克产品的燃油效率是最低的，它在自动驾驶等技术上的投资也少于规模较大的竞争对手。

剥离玛莎拉蒂、阿尔法·罗密欧和包括Magneti Marelli、Teksid以及Comau在内的零部件业务可能有助于菲克实现到明年底削减债务42亿欧元的目标。分析师估算，玛莎拉蒂和阿尔法·罗密欧的价值有望高达70亿欧元，而零部件业务或许最多能换回50亿欧元。

股价飙升

上周三，菲克在美国和意大利的股票价格均收于历史最高点。随后一天这只股票继续上扬，在米兰意大利证交所一度上涨6.5%。在纽约，上午9点纽约证交所开盘前菲克已上扬4.3%。

希尔格特说，菲克将剥离业务的猜测让更多投资者意识到该公司“的价值遭到了极度低估”。在米兰，菲克仍是Stoxx 600汽车和零部件指数中估值水平最低的股票之一。

希尔格特指出：“现在我们开始看到其估值有所上扬，而且引起了更多关注。毕竟，这家公司还是有一些有价值资产的。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审稿：夏林

The Italian-American automaker is forecasting Jeep’s annual sales to jump about 30 percent next year to 2 million vehicles and predicts the brand could eventually deliver 7 million units a year as appetite for SUVs surges worldwide, Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne has told analysts. That would continue impressive growth for a U.S.-focused off-road brand that had little more than 300,000 deliveries in 2009, when Fiat took control of Jeep as part of its acquisition of Chrysler.

Even if Marchionne has plenty of reasons to see more growth ahead for the sport utility vehicles, that level of expansion would be unprecedented. Jeep would need at least one model to sell more than 1 million a year. Only the Toyota Corolla, an affordable bread-and-butter compact that’s unlike anything Jeep offers, averaged that much global volume since the start of the decade, according to IHS Markit.

While Marchionne, 65, helped stoke speculation about Jeep’s future by saying Fiat Chrysler could spin off more divisions like it did with its Ferrari supercar unit, the brand is all but untouchable, despite drawing interest from China’s Great Wall Motor Co. Jeep has emerged as a the focal point of the automaker’s mass-market car plans, without which the company could scarcely attract a partner necessary to weather the disruption looming over the auto industry.

“I don’t see how FCA could sell it,” Maryann Keller, a longtime industry analyst and consultant, said of Jeep. “Whatever they got for it would hardly replace what they lost.”

Fiat Chrysler executives are considering options including a plan to spin off the upscale Maserati and Alfa Romeo divisions and its car-components operations, according to people familiar with the discussions. The company intends to keep Jeep to anchor the mass-market car business that also includes the Dodge and Ram brands, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. A Fiat Chrysler spokesman declined to comment.

Jeep, which is valued by Morgan Stanley at 23 billion euros ($27 billion), is already being transformed into a global player. SUV production started in India this year, following new plants in China, Brazil and Italy. Marchionne sees SUVs and crossovers as potentially becoming a third of the global industry, or as much as 35 million vehicles per year. With Jeep’s cachet and pedigree, it could capture a fifth of that market, he said on an earnings call on July 27.

The brand’s lineup will expand with the addition of the Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer and a pickup in the coming years, joining the Renegade, Compass, Cherokee and Grand Cherokee in showrooms. To reach Marchionne’s sales projection, those models would have to combine to sell about 50 percent more vehicles than what all of Fiat Chrysler delivered last year.

“It seems pretty pie-in-the-sky at this point,” Richard Hilgert, an autos analyst at Morningstar, said of Marchionne’s long-term projection. Still, he noted most observers were dubious years ago that Jeep could expand to 2 million in annual sales by 2018, a projection that now looks reachable.

Unsustainable Stump

Marchionne spoke plainly about the rationale against splitting Jeep from the rest of Fiat Chrysler on the earnings call, warning that the remainder of the company might not be healthy enough to survive.

“We do need to worry about the stump that’s left behind,” Marchionne said. “If we start picking away all the things that appear to be interesting to people, then I think we’re going to end up with a sub-optimal business that cannot run.”

And without a robust and global Jeep, Fiat Chrysler has little to offer a potential partner, which would be needed to address strategic weaknesses. The automaker has the least fuel-efficient fleet in the U.S., and it’s poured less investment into technology like autonomous driving than bigger rivals.

Spinning off Maserati, Alfa Romeo and parts divisions including Magneti Marelli, Teksid and Comau probably would help toward Fiat Chrysler’s goal to eliminate 4.2 billion euros in debt by the end of next year. The luxury-car operations could be worth as much as 7 billion euros, while the components businesses may fetch up to 5 billion euros, analysts estimate.

Share Surge

Fiat Chrysler’s shares in both the U.S. and Italy closed at record highs Wednesday. The rise continued Thursday with the stock gaining as much as 6.5 percent in Milan and climbing 4.3 percent as of 9 a.m. in New York, before the start of regular trading.

The deal speculation surrounding Fiat Chrysler has more investors realizing that the company is “exceedingly undervalued,” Hilgert said. The Milan-listed shares are still among the cheapest in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index.

“Now we’re starting to see the valuation perk up a bit and getting some interest,” Hilgert said. “There are some valuable assets in this organization after all”