中国正制订传统燃油车退出时间表

中国工信部副部长辛国斌表示，中国正在制订停止生产和销售传统燃油汽车的时间表，这将给全球汽车市场带来深刻改变，有利于电动汽车的发展。

据彭博社报道，目前中国尚未确定传统燃油汽车退出的最终期限。但已经公布计划的其他国家，目标主要集中在2030年左右。其中印度的目标日期为2030年，但并没有硬性的最终期限；英国的目标为2040年；法国的最终期限是2040年；挪威提出了最有雄心的目标：2025年。

中国将是规模最大的推动电气化的单一市场。中国经济的持续增长将使更多国民进入拥有私家车的中产阶层，因此中国的计划产生的效果，将远远超过印度。最近，印度的GDP增长出现下滑。

中国承诺到2030年，碳排放量达峰，而向电动汽车转变还有助于解决折磨国人的严重空气质量问题。而且这种转变也将使开发电动汽车的国内制造商受益。其中包括比亚迪。据彭博社报道，比亚迪在中国国内市场占有最大的份额。还有一些不太可靠的企业，例如乐视。乐视曾试图发展电动汽车生产业务，但在2016年却遭遇了严重的现金危机。

另外一个大赢家可能是美国的特斯拉汽车，其在发布低价款Model 3之前，在中国市场取得越来越大的进展。

另外一家中国汽车厂商奇瑞汽车的一名管理人员向彭博社预测，考虑到中国市场的规模，2040年可能是燃油车退出的合理目标。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

China’s vice minister of industry and information technology, Xin Guobin, says the country is working on a timetable to end the production and sale of vehicles that run on fossil fuels, potentially dramatically reshaping the global automobile market in favor of electric vehicles.

No deadline for the switch has been set yet, according to Bloomberg. But other countries that have plans to transition away from gas power have targets centered around 2030. Those countries include India, with a target date of 2030, but no hard deadline; Britain, aiming for 2040; France, with a deadline of 2040; and Norway, with the most ambitious target, 2025.

China would be the largest single market to push towards electrification. Because the growth of China’s economy continues to propel more people into the car-owning middle class, the effect of its mandate is likely to be larger than India’s, whose GDP growth has recently declined.

China has pledged to cap its carbon emissions by 2030, and transitioning to electric vehicles will also allay severe air-quality problems that plague its citizens. But the transition could also benefit domestic manufacturers who are developing electric vehicles. Those include BYD, which according to Bloomberg has the largest portion of China’s domestic market, as well as more shaky propositions including LeEco, which has pushed into electric car production but faced a major cash crisis in 2016.

The other big winner could be America’s Tesla Motors, which has made increasing headway in the Chinese market ahead of the release of its lower-priced Model 3 sedan.

A manager for another Chinese car manufacturer, Chery Automobile, speculated to Bloomberg that 2040 would be a reasonable target for the gas-car phaseout, given the size of China’s market.