特朗普税改将为苹果省大钱

英国《金融时报》咨询经济学家预计，苹果公司的海外持现相关税负将由786亿美元降至293亿美元。

这相当于苹果可以少纳税473亿美元，“减负”规模相当大，少缴纳的金额甚至超过了很多《财富》500强企业的市值。正如《金融时报》所说，苹果享有的减税金额比美国任意一家企业全年的利润都高。

目前苹果在海外持有2520亿美元现金和投资。当前美国参议院的税改议案提出，要将企业海外收入的税率由35%降至14.5%，据此推算得出，苹果的海外收入应缴税额将减少约470亿美元。（该推算也考虑到已投资的企业海外收入需按7.5%的税率纳税，并假设苹果不用向爱尔兰补缴此前引起税务纷争的130亿欧元税款。）

根据目前美国共和党人提出的议案，苹果将只需要将部分海外持现转回美国即可享受减税。《金融时报》咨询的经济学家表示，该公司一次性向美国财政部缴纳的海外收入汇回税将为290亿美元或者310亿美元，具体金额要看苹果与爱尔兰税款纠纷的结果而定。

值得一提的是，苹果跟其他公司不一样，已经为补缴此类税做了高额拨备。只要将部分海外持现转回美国，可能苹果的财务报表里还会录得盈利。《金融时报》指出：

“不同于其他大多数美国跨国企业，苹果这些年已经为将来可能缴税的部分计提了几十亿美元。目前已经拨备了364亿美元，比可能面临的税负高。未来财报中可能将差额计为一次性收益。”

当然，预测可能受到很多因素影响，比如参议院和众议院会不会就不同的议案达成妥协，能否顺利将最终版本送交特朗普总统签署成为法案。

如果税改法获批，还将带来一个新问题：苹果股价对于减税的利好已经反映多少？《财富》的编辑肖恩·徒利此前在文章中详细探讨了这个问题。

另外还有长远来看税改方案将如何影响苹果的问题。和其他受益于税改的行业不同，包括苹果在内的科技企业的股价最近出现下跌。这是因为投资者认为，税收规定改动后，美国企业将利润转移到海外可能会更困难。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审稿：夏林

According to economists consulted by the Financial Times (subscription required), the iPhone maker stands to see tax liabilities related to its overseas cash hoard decline to $29.3 billion from $78.6 billion.

That savings of $47.3 billion is an amount of money greater than the market value of many Fortune 500 companies and, as the FT notes, exceeds the annual profits of any other U.S. company.

Apple currently has $252 billion in foreign cash and investments. The $47 billion figure is based on the company repatriating all of that under the Senate’s current tax proposal, which would lower the corporate tax rate to 14.5% from 35% for overseas earnings. (It also takes account of a 7.5% rate for overseas earnings that have been reinvested and assumes Apple will not recover a disputed 13 billion euros in back taxes it owes to Ireland).

Under the proposed law, Apple would only have to repatriate a part of its foreign cash. The FT’s economist says the company’s immediate tax bill to the U.S. Treasury would be $31 billion or $29 billion depending on the outcome of the Ireland dispute.

It’s notable that, unlike other companies, Apple has already set aside a large amount to cover such liabilities—and that it would likely book a profit if it must repatriate part of its overseas cash. As the FT notes:

Unlike most other US multinationals, Apple has already taken billions of dollars of charges in past years to reflect its potential taxes. It has set aside $36.4bn for those bills — more than the tax charge it is now likely to face — and would likely record the difference as a one-off profit.

All of this, of course, is contingent on several things, including whether the Senate can reconcile its bill with the House’s version, and deliver a final version of the law for President Trump’s signature.

If the tax law is passed, it would also raise the question of how much of the potential tax savings are baked into Apple’s current share price—a question explored in detail by colleague Shawn Tully here.

There is also the matter of how the tax plan will affect Apple in the long term. Contrary to other industries, the share price of tech companies, including Apple, has dropped in light of other changes to the tax rules that make it harder to move profits overseas.